Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

A divisional bet to help start a good week of NFL portfolio accrual.

The AFC North has looked of late like a predictable sort: the Steelers win it, the Ravens and Bengals compete with each other and the Browns come last.

The market still says that:

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

The Ravens surprised a few people last year - myself included (remember we bet on them coming fourth - well, technically, the Browns coming third) - but a smart defense and a make-do offense enabled them to get a decent set of results. They won 9 games but the points scored and conceded would suggest their expected wins were one higher, at 10.07

Meanwhile, the Steelers, who won the division at a canter, won 13 games, but had an expected wins total of 10.16.

Neither team has made changes this year to lead you to think they'll be much worse or much better than last year. The Steelers are having contract issues with star running back Lev Bell, but they have an offensive line that will allow James Conner to be serviceable and Bell will be back at some point, for what we assume will be his last year in Pittsburgh. Their defense will probably improve a little, but not enormously. The Ravens have a slightly improved wide receiving corps and they have an insurance policy if QB Joe Flacco fails, in versatile rookie, Lamar Jackson.

Basically, the prices are like it's a 13 win team versus a 9 win team, rather than them being much closer. The Steelers should be favs, but the Ravens shouldn't be as far away as they are.

Baltimore Ravens for the win, please.

If anyone can get Beteveryday's price of 9/2, that's a belter. Be good if we can get any of the over 7/2 prices, though I suspect these are all non-Fred ones.

Recommendation of £40 on anything above 7/2. If we can only get 7/2, £30.

Last night's win at the Chargers had propelled the Ravens into favouritism for the division.

Fred has £28 @ 4/1, according to the Fred Spready.

Looked near dead a few weeks ago. If we can get the Steelers beat tonight against the New Orleans Saints, we are in shape.

[tikay]

^^^^^

Excellent news, fingers crossed.

[TightEnd]

5/1. Ravens

[Tal]

5/1. Ravens

Even better. Thought 5 meant 5.0.

[horseplayer]

Aberdeen Celtic boxing day

stop me if you have heard this before.

Michael Johnston, now has 3 goals in less than 2 full games. Was superb yesterday, Rodgers tells us Oduard is back for the Rangers game that and the fact he took of Mj yesterday when on a hat trick suggests he may well start again here on Wednesday.

365 really don't rate this lad which is great for me. 11/1 first and last as are redzone who have copied and pasted. Generally a 4/1 shot which is roughly the price he went off at with the firms yesterday, would suggest away to Aberdeen if he starts upfront 4-1/5-1 is around correct.

Is this as good a spot as yesterday no because the goals expectation will be lower. Still I have backed first and last with redzone and got on at 365 2 plus at 28/1.

If he doesnt start no harm done. Nobody knows the ceiling of how good this lad is yet

SUGGEST £25 WIN FIRST SCORER 11/1 AND LAST SCORER 11/1 REDZONE the new bhoy wonder Michael Johnston

[TightEnd]

will do but unfortunately its not accepting the log in details i have for RDZ

tikay will have to do it

[hhyftrftdr]

For those who got on the Shy pre season RAB of City/Liverpool/Arse/Spuds all to score 75+ goals at 40/1 (though think this soon shrunk), I'm reliably informed it is as follows....

City +15
Liverpool +4
Arsenal +5
Spurs+2

That Spurs haul just now means all 4 are ahead of where they need to be. As always, long way to go but for a 40/1 poke it's looking good.

Also looking good is Chomps' excellent RAB spot a while back of City/Liverpool both over 85 and under 30....under 30 should romp home for both despite us conceding 3 yesterday....over 85 might be touch and go with Liverpool but game on for sure.

[BigAdz]

King George on Boxing Day.

Going round in circles.

Might Bite. Cant back at 3-1 after last run. Do Hendo top horses run like that then suddenly turn it round. It doesn't feel like it to me. Not writing him off but that price after that race? Not for me.

Waiting Patiently. First time this season. Not sure that has ever been done? Is it good enough? Quite possibly, but trained by a bit of a one horse trainer. Put those two together and again at the price, can't have it.

Politologue. I just don't back horses at this level stepping up so far in the top races. Kempton never seems as easy a track as everyone gives the impression. They are normally strung out in the KG. That said, its been quite some time since Ive seen PN sound so bullish. He is adamant he will stay and go very close. Im not a Nicholls the person fan, but he is a great trainer. You have to give this bullishness plenty of credibility. It always looks like he could stay, so why should I disagree with a genius?

Native River. I thought this was an absolute ew steal until I watched the videos again of him run in the Feltham two years ago. Slow into the first, he jumped right handed at every fence bar the last. Outpaced several times, it was only his sheer class that saw him finish third. However it was a dreadful race won by Tea for Two, who is the outsider this time. I know NR has just progressed and progressed and it still wouldn't surprise me to see him run a belter, especially if his experience has cut out the jumping right business. I now think maybe he is a win only bet. If he is straightened out, he can and should win, but if he hasnt, no point sweating down the back straight for the place money.

Bristol de Mai. My best mate, loves him, but you have seen enough to think surely he is just a Haydock specialist and just a good horse elsewhere. I just can't give him another awayday chance. I also think his opponents that day were also gearing up for this, he would have been primed. If he wins, so be it, but his record suggests in he wont.

Thistlecrack. Won a poor KG two years ago. Suffered problems. Promising run at Haydock. Do they come back? Will he bounce? At double figures, I might dabble but not at 7-1

Clan des Obeaux. Im a total fanboy, but PN is clearly playing a more patient game than I want. At some point he has to say he has reached his full potential but he is still only 6. I was really impressed with the way he jumped those massive fences at Haydock, but he kept jumping right. This should suit him better, based on that. I think he will be a proper stayer as he progresses and he had the speed to be second in a Caspian Caviar. I think he will keep improving but maybe not in time for this year
This doubt was sort of backed up, as Nicholls ,when interviewed, said he will run well and will hopefully be close behind Politologue..... Right after the Betfair I had a good go at 33-1, but my confidence has waned, as it always does the closer we get. I feel it was more a heart than head bet.

I cant have Double Shuffle/Tea for Two, and they filled the places last year, so that again, makes me wonder about the form of last years race that Might Bite won. Conygree is surely just past it, and I know Alan Wallers son, and he just don't have any of the confidence they have displayed in the now distant past.

Conclusions.

I have almost written this to see where my musings end up. It all looks pretty inconclusive when I read it back.

Have backed Politologue before, and with all the doubts I have written about the others, coupled with PNs strong views on his ability to stay, I will have a win bet on him, and also on Native River, who I think is just getting better and better, and if there at the final bend he surely wins(unless the Clan turns out to be a worldy at last!!)

No recommend, but helped me get my thoughts in order.

Merry Christmas to all TFT contributors and lurkers.

[Karabiner]

Well I wouldn't say that I love Bristol De Mai but did fling a few quid on him @12/1 just after Haydock - he is still only a young horse not turning 8-y-o until NYD.

[horseplayer]

good write up adz

cant see a bet in the king george either, you never some firms might go crazy by 12 on boxing day if so I may play but hard to see a solid  bet or even an angle

[BigAdz]

Well I wouldn't say that I love Bristol De Mai but did fling a few quid on him @12/1 just after Haydock - he is still only a young horse not turning 8-y-o until NYD.

I certainly wouldn't say you were my Best Mate either

[Karabiner]

Well I wouldn't say that I love Bristol De Mai but did fling a few quid on him @12/1 just after Haydock - he is still only a young horse not turning 8-y-o until NYD.

I certainly wouldn't say you were my Best Mate either

May I be the first to congratulate you on getting one of my jokes.

[Chompy]

For those who got on the Shy pre season RAB of City/Liverpool/Arse/Spuds all to score 75+ goals at 40/1 (though think this soon shrunk), I'm reliably informed it is as follows....

City +15
Liverpool +4
Arsenal +5
Spurs+2

That Spurs haul just now means all 4 are ahead of where they need to be. As always, long way to go but for a 40/1 poke it's looking good.

Also looking good is Chomps' excellent RAB spot a while back of City/Liverpool both over 85 and under 30....under 30 should romp home for both despite us conceding 3 yesterday....over 85 might be touch and go with Liverpool but game on for sure.

I sayed at the start of the season that most of the Sky bets based around goal totals ultimately came down to whether you thought the top six would dominate by as much again as last season, or ideally pull further clear.

Those that took the view that they would are hashtaglovinglife at the moment. Had a DOUBLE MAX on those four to score 75+ but not at 40-1 unfortunately. Whoever came up with that price should be sacked.

Spuds hitting six today was ideal, while Man United's immediate improval helped a couple of other bets.

[scotty2hatty]

Aberdeen Celtic boxing day

stop me if you have heard this before.

Michael Johnston, now has 3 goals in less than 2 full games. Was superb yesterday, Rodgers tells us Oduard is back for the Rangers game that and the fact he took of Mj yesterday when on a hat trick suggests he may well start again here on Wednesday.

365 really don't rate this lad which is great for me. 11/1 first and last as are redzone who have copied and pasted. Generally a 4/1 shot which is roughly the price he went off at with the firms yesterday, would suggest away to Aberdeen if he starts upfront 4-1/5-1 is around correct.

Is this as good a spot as yesterday no because the goals expectation will be lower. Still I have backed first and last with redzone and got on at 365 2 plus at 28/1.

If he doesnt start no harm done. Nobody knows the ceiling of how good this lad is yet

SUGGEST £25 WIN FIRST SCORER 11/1 AND LAST SCORER 11/1 REDZONE the new bhoy wonder Michael Johnston

This is great spot and would suggest that you've significantly undersuggested on the first scorer bet. He's likely to start I'm reading but covered if he's benched anyway.

[Marky147]

I sniped Waiting Patiently with everyday, about ten minutes after the Ascot Chase.

Not too confident, so just going to enjoy a great race.

Had some real treats so far this year, unlike recent years.