Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

RedZone have wiped Mr Johnston from their records.

Makes life tough given nobody has accounts with Denise any more.

[horseplayer]

Redzone didn't like my massive bet (for me) Tbf they have been fair so far.

Scotty I have had a very decent bet for me the price is obviously way ool just copied and pasted from last game. Recs tend to get scaled down here these days so kept it sensible.

Much like the weekend worth watching in running based on the weekend they will price him up in running at double figures as well throughout the game.

Chompy had to pay a big drink after the weekend for that one but worth it

[tikay]

A divisional bet to help start a good week of NFL portfolio accrual.

The AFC North has looked of late like a predictable sort: the Steelers win it, the Ravens and Bengals compete with each other and the Browns come last.

The market still says that:

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

The Ravens surprised a few people last year - myself included (remember we bet on them coming fourth - well, technically, the Browns coming third) - but a smart defense and a make-do offense enabled them to get a decent set of results. They won 9 games but the points scored and conceded would suggest their expected wins were one higher, at 10.07

Meanwhile, the Steelers, who won the division at a canter, won 13 games, but had an expected wins total of 10.16.

Neither team has made changes this year to lead you to think they'll be much worse or much better than last year. The Steelers are having contract issues with star running back Lev Bell, but they have an offensive line that will allow James Conner to be serviceable and Bell will be back at some point, for what we assume will be his last year in Pittsburgh. Their defense will probably improve a little, but not enormously. The Ravens have a slightly improved wide receiving corps and they have an insurance policy if QB Joe Flacco fails, in versatile rookie, Lamar Jackson.

Basically, the prices are like it's a 13 win team versus a 9 win team, rather than them being much closer. The Steelers should be favs, but the Ravens shouldn't be as far away as they are.

Baltimore Ravens for the win, please.

If anyone can get Beteveryday's price of 9/2, that's a belter. Be good if we can get any of the over 7/2 prices, though I suspect these are all non-Fred ones.

Recommendation of £40 on anything above 7/2. If we can only get 7/2, £30.

Last night's win at the Chargers had propelled the Ravens into favouritism for the division.

Fred has £28 @ 4/1, according to the Fred Spready.

Looked near dead a few weeks ago. If we can get the Steelers beat tonight against the New Orleans Saints, we are in shape.

Nip and tuck at half time.

[horseplayer]

multiple italian sources suggesting Juve have upped offer for Ramsey

Several firms up but differing terms sky betfair 10s (next club) hills 20s (but to join in jan he isnt leaving in jan so terms a bit vague there) and victor are 4/1 next club an italian one

fwiw

[Chompy]

BFSB/PeePee are 10-1 that he signs for Juve before 3 Feb 2019. Sky the same.

VC's 4-1 looks the way I guess for the few that can.

[horseplayer]

butter me up

leeds derby or villa all at 25/1 hahaha

[Marky147]

A divisional bet to help start a good week of NFL portfolio accrual.

The AFC North has looked of late like a predictable sort: the Steelers win it, the Ravens and Bengals compete with each other and the Browns come last.

The market still says that:

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

The Ravens surprised a few people last year - myself included (remember we bet on them coming fourth - well, technically, the Browns coming third) - but a smart defense and a make-do offense enabled them to get a decent set of results. They won 9 games but the points scored and conceded would suggest their expected wins were one higher, at 10.07

Meanwhile, the Steelers, who won the division at a canter, won 13 games, but had an expected wins total of 10.16.

Neither team has made changes this year to lead you to think they'll be much worse or much better than last year. The Steelers are having contract issues with star running back Lev Bell, but they have an offensive line that will allow James Conner to be serviceable and Bell will be back at some point, for what we assume will be his last year in Pittsburgh. Their defense will probably improve a little, but not enormously. The Ravens have a slightly improved wide receiving corps and they have an insurance policy if QB Joe Flacco fails, in versatile rookie, Lamar Jackson.

Basically, the prices are like it's a 13 win team versus a 9 win team, rather than them being much closer. The Steelers should be favs, but the Ravens shouldn't be as far away as they are.

Baltimore Ravens for the win, please.

If anyone can get Beteveryday's price of 9/2, that's a belter. Be good if we can get any of the over 7/2 prices, though I suspect these are all non-Fred ones.

Recommendation of £40 on anything above 7/2. If we can only get 7/2, £30.

Last night's win at the Chargers had propelled the Ravens into favouritism for the division.

Fred has £28 @ 4/1, according to the Fred Spready.

Looked near dead a few weeks ago. If we can get the Steelers beat tonight against the New Orleans Saints, we are in shape.

Nip and tuck at half time.

Some game, and superb tekkers getting himself underneath matey's bottle

[tikay]

King George on Boxing Day.

Going round in circles.

Might Bite. Cant back at 3-1 after last run. Do Hendo top horses run like that then suddenly turn it round. It doesn't feel like it to me. Not writing him off but that price after that race? Not for me.

Waiting Patiently. First time this season. Not sure that has ever been done? Is it good enough? Quite possibly, but trained by a bit of a one horse trainer. Put those two together and again at the price, can't have it.

Politologue. I just don't back horses at this level stepping up so far in the top races. Kempton never seems as easy a track as everyone gives the impression. They are normally strung out in the KG. That said, its been quite some time since Ive seen PN sound so bullish. He is adamant he will stay and go very close. Im not a Nicholls the person fan, but he is a great trainer. You have to give this bullishness plenty of credibility. It always looks like he could stay, so why should I disagree with a genius?

Native River. I thought this was an absolute ew steal until I watched the videos again of him run in the Feltham two years ago. Slow into the first, he jumped right handed at every fence bar the last. Outpaced several times, it was only his sheer class that saw him finish third. However it was a dreadful race won by Tea for Two, who is the outsider this time. I know NR has just progressed and progressed and it still wouldn't surprise me to see him run a belter, especially if his experience has cut out the jumping right business. I now think maybe he is a win only bet. If he is straightened out, he can and should win, but if he hasnt, no point sweating down the back straight for the place money.

Bristol de Mai. My best mate, loves him, but you have seen enough to think surely he is just a Haydock specialist and just a good horse elsewhere. I just can't give him another awayday chance. I also think his opponents that day were also gearing up for this, he would have been primed. If he wins, so be it, but his record suggests in he wont.

Thistlecrack. Won a poor KG two years ago. Suffered problems. Promising run at Haydock. Do they come back? Will he bounce? At double figures, I might dabble but not at 7-1

Clan des Obeaux. Im a total fanboy, but PN is clearly playing a more patient game than I want. At some point he has to say he has reached his full potential but he is still only 6. I was really impressed with the way he jumped those massive fences at Haydock, but he kept jumping right. This should suit him better, based on that. I think he will be a proper stayer as he progresses and he had the speed to be second in a Caspian Caviar. I think he will keep improving but maybe not in time for this year
This doubt was sort of backed up, as Nicholls ,when interviewed, said he will run well and will hopefully be close behind Politologue..... Right after the Betfair I had a good go at 33-1, but my confidence has waned, as it always does the closer we get. I feel it was more a heart than head bet.

I cant have Double Shuffle/Tea for Two, and they filled the places last year, so that again, makes me wonder about the form of last years race that Might Bite won. Conygree is surely just past it, and I know Alan Wallers son, and he just don't have any of the confidence they have displayed in the now distant past.

Conclusions.

I have almost written this to see where my musings end up. It all looks pretty inconclusive when I read it back.

Have backed Politologue before, and with all the doubts I have written about the others, coupled with PNs strong views on his ability to stay, I will have a win bet on him, and also on Native River, who I think is just getting better and better, and if there at the final bend he surely wins(unless the Clan turns out to be a worldy at last!!)

No recommend, but helped me get my thoughts in order.

Merry Christmas to all TFT contributors and lurkers.

Nice write up Adzy, thanks.

For an alternative view of how the King George might pan out, the free to view "Road to Riches" on Betting Emporium this week is a Channing affair, & does the same as Adzy, in that it runs through all the King George runners & tries to anticipate how it will pan out.

Does it come to the same conclusion as Adzy? Best way to find out is to have a read of it.

[Tal]

Baltimore need to match or better Pittsburgh's result on Sunday to win the division.

Best price 4/9 now, after the Steelers' loss last night.

Pittsburgh v Cincinatti
Baltimore v Cleveland

Both are at home. Both playing divisional rivals. Both kick off at 9.25 Sunday UK time.

[BigAdz]

King George on Boxing Day.

Going round in circles.

Might Bite. Cant back at 3-1 after last run. Do Hendo top horses run like that then suddenly turn it round. It doesn't feel like it to me. Not writing him off but that price after that race? Not for me.

Waiting Patiently. First time this season. Not sure that has ever been done? Is it good enough? Quite possibly, but trained by a bit of a one horse trainer. Put those two together and again at the price, can't have it.

Politologue. I just don't back horses at this level stepping up so far in the top races. Kempton never seems as easy a track as everyone gives the impression. They are normally strung out in the KG. That said, its been quite some time since Ive seen PN sound so bullish. He is adamant he will stay and go very close. Im not a Nicholls the person fan, but he is a great trainer. You have to give this bullishness plenty of credibility. It always looks like he could stay, so why should I disagree with a genius?

Native River. I thought this was an absolute ew steal until I watched the videos again of him run in the Feltham two years ago. Slow into the first, he jumped right handed at every fence bar the last. Outpaced several times, it was only his sheer class that saw him finish third. However it was a dreadful race won by Tea for Two, who is the outsider this time. I know NR has just progressed and progressed and it still wouldn't surprise me to see him run a belter, especially if his experience has cut out the jumping right business. I now think maybe he is a win only bet. If he is straightened out, he can and should win, but if he hasnt, no point sweating down the back straight for the place money.

Bristol de Mai. My best mate, loves him, but you have seen enough to think surely he is just a Haydock specialist and just a good horse elsewhere. I just can't give him another awayday chance. I also think his opponents that day were also gearing up for this, he would have been primed. If he wins, so be it, but his record suggests in he wont.

Thistlecrack. Won a poor KG two years ago. Suffered problems. Promising run at Haydock. Do they come back? Will he bounce? At double figures, I might dabble but not at 7-1

Clan des Obeaux. Im a total fanboy, but PN is clearly playing a more patient game than I want. At some point he has to say he has reached his full potential but he is still only 6. I was really impressed with the way he jumped those massive fences at Haydock, but he kept jumping right. This should suit him better, based on that. I think he will be a proper stayer as he progresses and he had the speed to be second in a Caspian Caviar. I think he will keep improving but maybe not in time for this year
This doubt was sort of backed up, as Nicholls ,when interviewed, said he will run well and will hopefully be close behind Politologue..... Right after the Betfair I had a good go at 33-1, but my confidence has waned, as it always does the closer we get. I feel it was more a heart than head bet.

I cant have Double Shuffle/Tea for Two, and they filled the places last year, so that again, makes me wonder about the form of last years race that Might Bite won. Conygree is surely just past it, and I know Alan Wallers son, and he just don't have any of the confidence they have displayed in the now distant past.

Conclusions.

I have almost written this to see where my musings end up. It all looks pretty inconclusive when I read it back.

Have backed Politologue before, and with all the doubts I have written about the others, coupled with PNs strong views on his ability to stay, I will have a win bet on him, and also on Native River, who I think is just getting better and better, and if there at the final bend he surely wins(unless the Clan turns out to be a worldy at last!!)

No recommend, but helped me get my thoughts in order.

Merry Christmas to all TFT contributors and lurkers.

Nice write up Adzy, thanks.

For an alternative view of how the King George might pan out, the free to view "Road to Riches" on Betting Emporium this week is a Channing affair, & does the same as Adzy, in that it runs through all the King George runners & tries to anticipate how it will pan out.

Does it come to the same conclusion as Adzy? Best way to find out is to have a read of it.

Lay Lay Lay. Sorry Neil, didn't mean to spoil your Xmas!

[Spudy]

Price gone with Denise. Hope some of you got on

[engy]

Just want wish a merry Christmas to all the knowledgeable punters on her for all the great write ups and explanations of bets and why they are value. I've learned a lot from here and the politics thread. Good luck to everyone in 2019

[nuros]

Merry Christmas Blonde!

[Marky147]

Just want wish a merry Christmas to all the knowledgeable punters on her for all the great write ups and explanations of bets and why they are value. I've learned a lot from here and the politics thread. Good luck to everyone in 2019

+1

Don't remember any of it, but learned a ton

Happy Xmas, punters!

[horseplayer]

Mj is now 9/2 with denise finally shame as will carry on in running, fun whilst it lasted

just finished the sunderland doc on netflix well worth a watch