Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-merseyside-50195398/ex-liverpool-player-stephen-darby-on-fight-with-brutal-disease

That's a rough one. Poor fella.

[Archer]

Liverpool 2.9 ish for home game against City a week on Sunday. Some traded on exchange for >3.
City in the range 2.3 to 2.45 most places.

V surprised to see City as favourite for this. Price is shorter than last year when we played at Anfield in the Autumn and then on the back of a run of W42 L2. City currently far more vulnerable than a year ago.

[Juperjiper]

Liverpool conceding in like every game this season tho

[arbboy]

Liverpool 2.9 ish for home game against City a week on Sunday. Some traded on exchange for >3.
City in the range 2.3 to 2.45 most places.

V surprised to see City as favourite for this. Price is shorter than last year when we played at Anfield in the Autumn and then on the back of a run of W42 L2. City currently far more vulnerable than a year ago.

https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/

This might help explain the price.   Some interesting reading for sure here.   Soton should be higher in the table than Leics and Stoke are virtually a play off team in the 'real' league table.

[Juperjiper]

Liverpool 2.9 ish for home game against City a week on Sunday. Some traded on exchange for >3.
City in the range 2.3 to 2.45 most places.

V surprised to see City as favourite for this. Price is shorter than last year when we played at Anfield in the Autumn and then on the back of a run of W42 L2. City currently far more vulnerable than a year ago.

https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/

This might help explain the price.   Some interesting reading for sure here.   Soton should be higher in the table than Leics and Stoke are virtually a play off team in the 'real' league table.

Damn spurs

[HutchGF]

Liverpool 2.9 ish for home game against City a week on Sunday. Some traded on exchange for >3.
City in the range 2.3 to 2.45 most places.

V surprised to see City as favourite for this. Price is shorter than last year when we played at Anfield in the Autumn and then on the back of a run of W42 L2. City currently far more vulnerable than a year ago.

https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/

This might help explain the price.   Some interesting reading for sure here.   Soton should be higher in the table than Leics and Stoke are virtually a play off team in the 'real' league table.

Definitely makes interesting reading.

Man Utd available at 4/1 for a top 4 finish looks a good bet based on that?

[Archer]

Liverpool 2.9 ish for home game against City a week on Sunday. Some traded on exchange for >3.
City in the range 2.3 to 2.45 most places.

V surprised to see City as favourite for this. Price is shorter than last year when we played at Anfield in the Autumn and then on the back of a run of W42 L2. City currently far more vulnerable than a year ago.

https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/

This might help explain the price.   Some interesting reading for sure here.   Soton should be higher in the table than Leics and Stoke are virtually a play off team in the 'real' league table.

Yep, I get it with the models and the price to a point.  I use xG all the time, mainly understat, which  is great  because it is so accessible and on there for expected points City are on 24 points (actual 22) and LIverpool 20 points (so +8 on actual of 28).

City continue to create loads and score for fun but defensive stats are way down. Restricting opponents shots on target is well down - about 7th in PL this season whilst last season it was the lowest in top 5 european leagues since stats published.....opta big chances conceded for the whole of last season just 30, this season just 10 games in and already at 20..... xGA about 1.1pg this season compared to 0.45 2nd half of last season. ....important personnel missing... and it is Liverpool at rabid Anfield

Liverpool price has already dropped a bit but still big val in my book.

[Ant040689]

Anyone else think the Keogh sacking is a bit of a liberty? Have Derby a right to? He gets drunk against Derby's orders that night seems to be the crime? Hadn't heard someone lose a job over that before. I probably don't know everything here.

[Juperjiper]

Anyone else think the Keogh sacking is a bit of a liberty? Have Derby a right to? He gets drunk against Derby's orders that night seems to be the crime? Hadn't heard someone lose a job over that before. I probably don't know everything here.

I read it someone say it comes after an investigation which turned our insurance void due to Keogh not wearing a seatbelt.

[arbboy]

https://egr.global/intel/insight/is-this-the-end-of-the-pinnacle-model-in-regulated-markets/

Interesting article on the low margin high volume failure of Mustardbet.   So so hard to get a hold in the market nowadays from nothing no matter how good your trading team is.   The article pretty much says you might as well punt yourself as a firm rather than set up because of the red tape.

[bookiebasher]

https://egr.global/intel/insight/is-this-the-end-of-the-pinnacle-model-in-regulated-markets/

Interesting article on the low margin high volume failure of Mustardbet.   So so hard to get a hold in the market nowadays from nothing no matter how good your trading team is.   The article pretty much says you might as well punt yourself as a firm rather than set up because of the red tape.

Good article , thanks.

Probably got 6 months left myself and Gamekeeper will turn poacher , expenses killed retail.

[SuperJez]

Good article, thanks for posting.

MustardBet, however, claims beating these punters wasn’t an issue.

Haha, they refused a bet I wanted to place with them that was on their site.  This was the original Mustard bet, when you could only place bets via Skype and had to bet to win a minimum of £500.  I asked to bet to win £500 on a selection they had up at 1.73 that should have been 1.57 or so.  They turned it down with a derogatory comment despite it being advertised on their site.  Not as perfect as they would like to claim.

Tax in the UK for gambling companies is really prohibitive now since Hammond upped it from 15% to 21% when he threw the toys out the pram at the FOBT £2 limit.  Pinnacle did want to come back to the UK prior to that but they have years of brand name recognition behind them.  Practically nobody had heard of Mustard Bet.  I can't see Pinnacle coming back any time soon now.

[arbboy]

I never had an account with them (and virtually all new companies nowadays) as the chance of them grimming you/closing you after 1 bet/voiding bets etc just makes it not worth the hassle on top of all the ID that needs sending in for a handful of bets before 'trading decision' arrives.

[SuperJez]

I never had an account with them (and virtually all new companies nowadays) as the chance of them grimming you/closing you after 1 bet/voiding bets etc just makes it not worth the hassle on top of all the ID that needs sending in for a handful of bets before 'trading decision' arrives.

UK market is fked now anyway, the tax has killed it.  The SOW regulations are not helping either as like you say it is annoying + intrusive and that's not just for you, it is for potential fish also.  Mostly it is the cost of operating here though.  Eventually (and sooner, rather than later) we will be left with a handful of operators only.

[arbboy]

I never had an account with them (and virtually all new companies nowadays) as the chance of them grimming you/closing you after 1 bet/voiding bets etc just makes it not worth the hassle on top of all the ID that needs sending in for a handful of bets before 'trading decision' arrives.

UK market is fked now anyway, the tax has killed it.  The SOW regulations are not helping either as like you say it is annoying + intrusive and that's not just for you, it is for potential fish also.  Mostly it is the cost of operating here though.  Eventually (and sooner, rather than later) we will be left with a handful of operators only.

It's both sides of the fence though for pro punters and firms.   As margins reduce and prices become more and more 'perfect' thhe edges are less frequent and smaller.   That means to make the same 'salary' each month as a pro punter you need to turn over more and more cash.  The downswings get bigger and longer as the edges reduce, the upswings are smaller and shorter and the amount of cash/bankroll you need to make that salary increases because of the increased turnover you need.     It has never been harder now since i have been doing it.