Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

4.5/1 still appeals a lot after his recent final loss to Clayton?

[Ant040689]

For the first time in years I think there is value in a Palace bet, watch it lead balloon now lol.

I think Palace to win at 5/1 and for the double chance Palace/draw at 13/10 is value. The onus i think on the double chance for Palace's propensity to draw games they should be winning recently. I would bet Palace on the double chance at 1.9 happily, with 1.8/1.75 the line in my head that i think is no value.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-crystal-palace/

I think the 7 points from 7 games is near relegation form from Palace but i am not sure it shows the whole picture of what has happened in the games. The expected points has us on effectively 10 points for example which would have us above Arsenal's expected points. It is an lol sample size granted, but i have been enthused by what i have watched from the West Ham second half onwards. We seem to be a more possession based team now. We played Leicester off of the park for huge periods which was shocking to see with 60% possession versus their 40% and we gave Brighton a somewhat dominating performance too.

That is in possession and threat, but it can be a bit toothless for all the pressure for clear cut chances, which i am hoping is improving as it looks like it has been. Another consideration, unfortunately, are the mistakes our new centre back pairing are making. I have counted 4 between them leading directly to goals, which is abysmal in seven games. Guehi shockingly left a ball over the top for Brighton to equalise as one, Anderson shurgged way too easily off of the ball by Antonio away to West Ham as another, and the first and second goals against Leicester were clear Anderson errors. For all of that though, if you were to contact a palace fan, they could tell you they absolutely love Guehi and Anderson. And i can see why. They are very composed on the ball, and set the tone for our new style of play which passes out from the back on the deck more often, (barring an Anderson long ball to a winger which often hits the target) and it is much more aesthetically pleasing to watch generally. They seem to be good tackling on the deck, Guehi better of the two and Anderson is better in the air. They have been solid aside from their mistakes i have found. But those mistakes really irk me. And i hope it is just bad luck that so many have happened so quickly. Without the outright errors that is easily 4 more points against Brighton and Leicester, and you'd hope the rate of mistakes won't continue like that, as Palace have "deserved" more points.

Going forward Gallagher has been immense. Doesn't stop running and harassing and probably is the best player on the pitch for Palace. He seems to compliment Macarthur so well, with Milo sitting in. Zaha I think has entered a new period of his football career that involves him taking on players 1on1 a lot less. He really has become less threatening on that front and it could be age. He has it in him to get out of tight spots and do well, but he much prefers to pass around defenders now. Palace fans are probably still coming to terms with that drop off. His final product is still good though and he is threatening so i am not throwing him under the bus we are still lucky to have him and he is a club legend. In terms of a big move away for Zaha i think that isn't on, but i may be wrong. It gets a lot easier for them to take a punt on him if they get him on a free at the end of 22/23 season or cut price at the end of this season. Ayew many fans are shocked still starts ahead of Olise. He runs his arse off and is good defensively, but i am itching to see Olise replace him in the side. Whether to start Benteke or Edouard is an interesting one. If Olise starts with his crossing capability i would err towards Benteke as that i feel could be a lethal combo, but with Olise probably not starting i would give Edouard the nod. Edouard can frustrate in periods of games where he looks like he isn't contributing then can explode into life.

To summarise on Palace i think we could be a top 10 side if things start to click in a way that it looks like it will. I am always very hesitant to be optimistic like this, as technically Vieira hasn't been delivering results, but i think they will come. What we did to Leicester in our composure and possession really enthused me and if Anderson wasn't on a madness I think we would have won comfortably, which i hope is an indicator that we have risen a level from last year rather than it being a one off performance. It was much the same in feel against Brighton at home the next game.  

To Arsenal. They had a tough start of it with the fixture list. Then won 3 of their last 4 games. Dismantling Spurs, their most impressive result. I think Ramsdale has come into his own in recent games. I remember thinking he was a crap Jordan Pickford last year, but seems to have matured, so credit where it is due. You have a young side there that will increasingly get better which is always going to be a threat. Though I hope to have seen enough in their fixture with Brighton in their last game which was 0-0 which makes me believe of the three results that can happen on Monday, getting better than evens for the Draw and Palace seems a good go.

I think the value lies with the bookies looking at Palace's relegation form versus Arsenal's 3 wins and a draw in their last four games. I am not sure the Vieira and Arsenal connection will make a difference here.

[tikay]

Love it, an Ant Palace write up, good luck today.

[booder]

Love it, an Ant Palace write up, good luck today.

[Karabiner]

Nice write-up Ant.

We missed the much-maligned Xhaka against Brighton and I fear we may on Monday too.

Despite his periodic brain-farts he gives our side structure and does a lot of the sleeves-rolled-up dirty work which often goes unnoticed.

Hopefully the promising Sambi Lokonga will step up tomorrow alongside Partey but we don't really have a genuine #4 to sit.

I'm delighted to see Paddy doing well at the Palace - just not so much tomorrow!

[arbboy]

4.5/1 still appeals a lot after his recent final loss to Clayton?

He lostt to MVG averaging 108 10-8 in the euro champ 1/4 finals.  9/2 is still huge ew based on the draw.

[Ant040689]

Cheers for kind words on write up.

Karabiner, ty for the insight into Xhaka and the team. Yeh i am hoping it is bittersweet for Vieira with a Palace win, but even with the perceived value, there is a leap of faith involved as we actually haven't got a real completely positive result over the line aside from Spurs at home but needed them to go down to 10 men before we started scoring late into the game. I figure that is why the odds on the game are where they are.

Also ty for Price darts views Arb. I am already on Jose de Sousa from way back, after i believe i heard positive news on him from this thread. In from 28/1 to 16/1 best currently.

[tikay]

https://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/pdc-world-championships/winner

We wouldn't have got slybet's 5/1 which went earlier anyway but the 9/2 ew Price for the worlds based on the draw (he is seeded 1 and MVG and Wright are locked in the 2/3 seeds whatever happens the next 2 months) and current form is close to a max bet ew (especially the place part given he is currently seeded to meet Wade in the semis who is a 50/1 poke).

I think Price on current form should be a 2/1 to 5/2 poke for the worlds.  Reigning champ/won last 2 euro tour events/perfect draw edge for the place part of the bet.   £100 e/w at 9/2 please.

Going to add two more to the portfolio.  Bunting 125/1 ew at skybet and Searle 125/1 ew.   Both worth £20 ew but fred won't get the prices but if you can mop them up.   Bunting seems in fine form with his new darts.  Searle went off a flip tonight against a guy who is 50/1 for the worlds in his GP match.

Forgot to mention, I got on Price @ 4/1 EW, 1/2 odds 1, 2.

I've also had a little nibble at Bunting & Searle.

I rarely watch Darts, but this will give me a nice sweat over Xmas. If you think we should add any others, let me know.

Thanks Argue.

[Ant040689]

Can't say i would put the bet up had i known Zaha wouldn't make the squad. Vieira had said in his press conference no injury concerns so no idea what's happened there. I'd hope we still can fire but i am not even sure what formation we are putting out. We are playing Edouard on the wing or going 4-4-2 instead of the 4-3-3, with Edouard and Benteke up top. Suprised Olise wasn't a straight swap for Zaha, for an easier transition on paper, Schlupp to replace Zaha even. We looked disjointed against Chelsea on the opening game playing a 4-4-2. However that was early doors. An interesting one. There might still be value in the bet, but i am not as confident. Also you have the talisman effect of Zaha not being there, the record without him is poor.

[Karabiner]

On the subject of formations ours is slightly curious too with Pepe's inclusion rather than Sambi.

It looks like we'll be playing a flexible 4-1-4-1 with Ódegaard floating back at times to join Partey as a deeper-lying CM.

COYG

[Ant040689]

That hurts. I was never a fan to see us go 5 at the back as i thought we were defending well by being further up the pitch with possession. We just welcomed it too much in the final ten mins. You could probably see why I fancied Palace tonight and i hope the luck eventually turns. There is an argument to say the draw is fair and I am happy the double chance landed. I did go hard at 19/1 at half time for the Palace win so it is gutting, but never mind.

[Chompy]

Ul Ant, I didn't play but felt for you when Arsenal scored that late.

[Ant040689]

Ul Ant, I didn't play but felt for you when Arsenal scored that late.

Cheers. I will look at Man City away next as some possible value. Palace+3 on the handicap is 3/4 for example and looks okay, but that is after a home game to Newcastle, so i will wait before looking at it.

[Chompy]

Vardy 14-1 EW four places is all sorts of value. It's 33-1 bar five in reality and Kane will do well to get past 15 for me this season.

The 14-1 win part is good, the 7-2 a place is golden. It's not showing as biggest price on oddschecker thanks to VBet's super-stale 33-1 still being in the grid. Otherwise buttermeup would have chopped by now.

[Ant040689]

Vardy 14-1 EW four places is all sorts of value. It's 33-1 bar five in reality and Kane will do well to get past 15 for me this season.

The 14-1 win part is good, the 7-2 a place is golden. It's not showing as biggest price on oddschecker thanks to VBet's super-stale 33-1 still being in the grid. Otherwise buttermeup would have chopped by now.

That looks a great tip, cheers.