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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331471 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #137940 on: December 13, 2021, 08:38:49 AM »

Bam Bam got those hands, and those shoes!

Someone pouring drinks into his mouth from above the fighter walkway as he went back, and think it must have had some hotsauce in it or something, as it went in his eye.

One of best cards I've been to, that's for sure.

He wins GOAT music of all history, too Cheesy
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Ant040689
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« Reply #137941 on: December 15, 2021, 04:18:41 PM »

I think Palace are value tonight against Southampton. You can get 2.2 on the exchanges, but i think we might be closer to 1.75 actual price. I am going fairly large for me on this one.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-southampton/winner

I have watched the full 90 of games this season and was at the game on Sunday and am going tonight. I was impressed by Hughes in particular in his first start since May and debut start for Palace. Vieira hadn't fancied him until this point basically and he decided to try him from the start and was glowing in his praise for him post match, a hopeful long term replacement of Mcarthur. He was many Watford fans' player of the year last season, so it was baffling how little he featured for Palace this term. Hughes seemed to have Palace ticking over in a way much more similar to the positive run before when Mcarthur and Anderson were fit. Both missing had been terrible blows, and Palace have been disjointed but things clicked a lot more on Sunday. Palace had 70% possession in the first half against Everton, before the second half nerves near the end of the game making Palace forfeit possession more and it ended 60/40 in Palace's favour overall. It's shocking Palace have comfortably more possession over teams like Everton and Leicester this season. Makes a change from Hodgson's style.

For all the possession, Palace had good pressure the whole game and took their chances well. If you were being critical, Palace were quite fortunate with the goals, all three were from errors from Everton and Gallagher's missile outside of the box was a half chance at best. I would like to think though that the pressure can force that luck to happen. Everton going the other way had a good chance to level things up and were fortunate with their opening goal.

Palace at times have looked less than convincing in some defensive situations. Particularly route 1 stuff, long balls over the top can get some success, and there definitely isn't that Pulis like sense of rigidity at the back. However, those gaps are probably from how Palace are playing more aggressively.

Tomkins though has been a solid replacement of Anderson defensively. You could argue things look more solid. Palace have suffered without Anderson going forward though and he is back fit and it would be interesting to see if he gets a start, i think that is doubtful. I think Tomkins has shaken off cobwebs he may have initially had and looks good. I mean having a player of his quality as a back up is an esteemed position for a non top 6 club in this league.

I think there is a shift in the team with Hughes starting now, so Palace should be better for that tonight.

Caballero starts in goal for Southampton, and he didn't cover himself in glory at all against Arsenal and had been only training with AFC Wimbledon up until that point. A goalkeeper coming in cold like that can tend to destabilise the backline confidence wise as well as struggle with rhythm for aerial crosses as was clear against Arsenal, and that could be present tonight. He has had some more days training and probably will come in more composed tonight with his temperament after getting a tough start out of the way. His presence in the starting line up actually was the tipping point for me to post this tip though and to be as aggressive as i am with the price difference i am suggesting. I think that Palace clicking back into gear seemingly with Hughes slotting in and the injuries Southampton are dealing with haven't been fully factored into the price. Cue a stormer from Caballerro.

Southampton are without Che Adams tonight as well. Armstrong and Broja came off against Arsenal and might not feature.

Ward-prowse can often get under the skin of Zaha and that could make the affair more attritional through frustration.

Southampton have lost their last 3 away games against Arsenal Liverpool and Norwich, but had respectable home draws against Brighton (where they were unlucky) and Leicester.

I am nervous about posting the tip as i normally don't like doing so for bets closer to evens and i think the true price is 1.75 and obviously they aren't dead certs to come in at all. Palace have a propensity to get nervous with leads and forfeit possession near the end of the game, and have conceded at least 3 injury time burns this season. Palace do quite enjoy a draw where a win might be a more "fair" result. Leeds and Villa have shown recently that losses are on the cards at times as well. I hope though Hughes is the missing link. Palace also decided not to play Zaha up top and have him on the wing of a front three, which was frustrating to see not happen before that with Edouard playing on the wing when he started. No funny business with Benteke starting though he always played through the middle.

For all the possession at times, clear cut chances aren't completely forthcoming, but with everything in my limited capacity i have factored in, i do think it's worth a decent sized bet at the value difference i am proposing.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2021, 04:30:15 PM by Ant040689 » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #137942 on: December 15, 2021, 06:24:06 PM »


Thanks Ant, & good luck.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Ant040689
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« Reply #137943 on: December 15, 2021, 06:43:11 PM »


Thanks Ant, & good luck.

Cheers.

I should have said Cabellero was training with AFC Wimbledon until he was signed 5 days before the Arsenal game.

Speaking of out of match practice keepers, Butland starts tonight out of nowhere.

Still think the value is there but less. He's been alright when I have seen him but there's a reason Guatia is no 1. Could be culpable to the same weaknesses I proposed of Cabellero. On paper to a lesser extent though.

That's twice in the last three tips a harsh change in the lineup has happened without a heads up.
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Ant040689
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« Reply #137944 on: December 15, 2021, 06:45:13 PM »

I'd put the true price at 1.9 now imo.
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Ant040689
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« Reply #137945 on: December 15, 2021, 09:58:45 PM »

A frustrating one. Definitely fancied us up until the free kick that looked a dive. Dangerous to place Ward prowse in that spot. They were on top for the first half thereafter. The result seems fair.
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vegaslover
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« Reply #137946 on: February 09, 2022, 06:10:23 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-60320434
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Doobs
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« Reply #137947 on: February 09, 2022, 08:27:54 PM »


Typo in the article.  It mistakenly describes the usual Betfred 5p maximum stake as a minimum...
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TheDazzler
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« Reply #137948 on: March 20, 2022, 03:40:56 AM »

Apologies if this is already posted but 11/10 Ukraine for Eurovision is literally insane. That’s like 11/10 the sun not rising tomorrow.
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Ledders
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« Reply #137949 on: March 25, 2022, 01:54:40 PM »

Is Euromillions +ev tonight with 10 millionaire makers guaranteed?
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Ironside
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« Reply #137950 on: March 25, 2022, 02:06:43 PM »

Is Euromillions +ev tonight with 10 millionaire makers guaranteed?
jackpots only 26 million though gets to about 200 million so wouldnt think its ev but i dont know much
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
ripple11
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« Reply #137951 on: April 02, 2022, 11:30:29 PM »

Apologies if this is already posted but 11/10 Ukraine for Eurovision is literally insane. That’s like 11/10 the sun not rising tomorrow.

Just seen this. Still this price and even a touch more.

Any reason not to go in ?
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Chompy
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« Reply #137952 on: April 03, 2022, 08:44:40 AM »

Yes. They may well win but it's 6-4 on the machine right now and that's too short for me.

I'd imagine the juries will have to be seen to vote on merit rather than sentiment, in which case they'll get bigger during the evening. The jury voting takes ages and is up first, ahead of the phone votes.

Also the song isn't very good.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
ripple11
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« Reply #137953 on: April 03, 2022, 06:13:54 PM »

Yes. They may well win but it's 6-4 on the machine right now and that's too short for me.

I'd imagine the juries will have to be seen to vote on merit rather than sentiment, in which case they'll get bigger during the evening. The jury voting takes ages and is up first, ahead of the phone votes.

Also the song isn't very good.

Cheers Chompy
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doubleup
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« Reply #137954 on: April 05, 2022, 09:55:12 AM »

9 10 and 11 places in many books for the Masters.  Shybet even with pared prices is 734% for a return of 1100%. BFPP 688 for a return of 1000 and hills 670 for 900.  So huge value in the place market.
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