Euro 2012 betting thread

[George2Loose]

If one has been created ignore this pls but can't see anything.

Where is the value. I'm looking at France who are 10/1 to win it and maybe ronaldo as top scorer at 12s? Or maybe Torres at 16 seeing as villa is injured

Thoughts?

[a.sparrow]

Was also looking at some top goal scorer markets, if you think France might win, i beleive benzema was 20/1 for top goal scorer? ew pays top 4 i think. 

I wanted to bet on england top goal scorer for a sweat, however i didn't really know where to look. any thought on that one?

I've got a lil on Kerzhakov to be the top Russian goal scorer bet as tipped in the 'tips for tikay thread'

I really like both Germany and Holland to qualify from their group at 11/10, and this will probably be my main bet.  Not a huge price, but looking at the squads of each country, they look far better than both portugal and denmark's squads.

[TightEnd]

Tipped by Horneris, a lot, Portugal 20-1

Tipped by AndrewT with confidence Jelavic top scorer 66-1

[The Baron]

If one has been created ignore this pls but can't see anything.

Where is the value. I'm looking at France who are 10/1 to win it and maybe ronaldo as top scorer at 12s? Or maybe Torres at 16 seeing as villa is injured

Thoughts?

I think Llorente is longer odds than Torres in a few places and has been the best Spanish striker all season and is more of a certainty to start.

[The Baron]

Tipped by Horneris, a lot, Portugal 20-1

Tipped by AndrewT with confidence Jelavic top scorer 66-1

On both of these.

[The Baron]

I also think there's a bit of value in Lukas Podolski in places.

He's been great for Koln this season, and his gpg ratio for Germany is miles better than in club football, he's scored 2 or 3 in every major tournament for Germany in the past as a young lad and at 26 is approaching his peak years. I expect him to score more for Arsenal next season than his typical 1 every 2.5 to date.

Gomez whilst the form striker in the German league and the CL has never scored in a major tournament for Germany and as the CL final and German cup final showed, he's capable of some shocking misses. Most importantly he hasn't started for Germany in the last 3 games. They stick to Podolski and Klose, the tried and trusted Polish-speaking front two.

Klose has shown this year at Lazio he isn't past it at 33 after a couple of terrible years at Bayern and he'll almost certainly start. When him and Podolski do play together they seem to assist each other a fair bit.

[George2Loose]

Any plans to do a fantasy footie/dream team Euro 2012 thread. Don't know if there's a free site anywhere?

[anthonyl]

Mentioed LLorente / Jelavic in a thread back in April.

Does Jelavic get in ahead of Olic and Eduardo??

[anthonyl]

Mentioed LLorente / Jelavic in a thread back in April.

Does Jelavic get in ahead of Olic and Eduardo??

Jel hasn't started last 2 games, just checked....

[mondatoo]

Was also looking at some top goal scorer markets, if you think France might win, i beleive benzema was 20/1 for top goal scorer? ew pays top 4 i think. 

I wanted to bet on england top goal scorer for a sweat, however i didn't really know where to look. any thought on that one?

I've got a lil on Kerzhakov to be the top Russian goal scorer bet as tipped in the 'tips for tikay thread'

I really like both Germany and Holland to qualify from their group at 11/10, and this will probably be my main bet.  Not a huge price, but looking at the squads of each country, they look far better than both portugal and denmark's squads.

That is huge, were is this ?

[pleno1]

I think the Portugal bet is pretty bad. They finished behind Denmark in group stages yeh? I also thought they had an insanely tough group.

I'm not sure on the price but quite like Germany to not qualify from their group.

France at 12s is great and benzema at 20s looks great too. They have a really good team and are very attacking.

Ben arfa player of the tournament? Also goal of the tournament? Not sure if these markets are available.

[Horneris]

Nooo I tipped Portugal @ 25s but the price is long gone now.

They are in the group of death yeah but then yesterday close to Holland's first team lost at home to Bulgaria http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/26/world/friendlies/netherlands/bulgaria/1247579/ and half of Germany's first team lost 5-3 to Switzerland http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/26/world/friendlies/switzerland/germany/1247581/. I know it is dangerous to read too much into these friendlies but I do think Spain/Germany/Holland are all too short in the outright market so am simply looking for alternatives. Its a shame Italy never show more, we know England are crap and France are really hit or miss (could go all the way, could easily go out in the group stages) . At the moment am swaying more towards Portugal and maybe Russia and Sweden at big prices.

Portugal haven't been playing great for a while but 25/1 or even 20/1 would have to interest me slightly the way all the sides are playing nowadays. The new Portuguese coach has got them playing more solid football and a formation similar to Real Madrid going forward which should finally give Ronaldo some sort of chance to shine for the national team (shame they have Helder Postiga and not Higuain tho).

There could be some value in Ronaldo top scorer/Portugal winners @ 100s (blue square). I wouldn't ever be solely backing Ronaldo for top scorer @ 14s when they are 7/5 to get out of the group but I think if they go along way he is obviously going to have to score a lot of goals.

I wouldn't say I'm confident but then I couldn't be confident in any side in it.

[horseplayer]

nice view horneris

postiga has actually played well this season which is a rarity so as mad as it sounds i have taken some nibbles at him at around 200-250-1 on betfair for topscorer

his international record is not bad and he looks pretty sure to start the tournament, compared to those priced around him he looks a bit big

[horseplayer]

not sure i agree that spain are weaker than previously

squad just named (copied from twitter so sorry for typeface)

#Spain squad named. Keepers #Casillas, #Reina, #Valdés (enough said plenty of depth here)

#Spain squad named Defenders #Ramos, #Arbeloa, #Albiol, #Piqué, #Alba, #Juanfran (could be argued a little weak but martinez can easily play centre back and juanfran is a revelation at wingback)

#Spain squad named. Midfielders #Busquets, #Xavi #Iniesta, #Martínez, #Alonso, #Fábregas. #Mata, #Cazorla . (enough said any would walk into the england and most other sides)

#Spain squad named. Strikers #Silva, #Llorente, #Torres, #Navas, #Pedro , #Negredo. (looks pretty strong depthwise when you consider soldado who scored a hat trick his last game for spain cant get in and he was joint top spanish scorer in la liga)

still the rightful favourites

[seven2unsuited]

Looking at past Euros, 4 or 5 goals will probably be enough, do you get full odds if TGS is tied?

Was looking at group 1 even though they will have a tough game in quarters someone may have scored at least 4 in the group stages?