A thread of winter woes and hopefully some cheer?

[horseplayer]

rick i will come back to that sometime tommorow if thats ok? bit busy

Wolverhampton stage a fairly decent card for a monday tommorow and a couple of horses catch my eye.

the 4.00 is a really good race with plenty of fairly classy horses and some solid proven polytrack runners. I really like ARTIC LYNX. Has had a consistent season for John Best which is impressive in its itself considering how out of form the stable has been for most of the year.

The horse has often looked unlucky for best running on late and often earning the comment "nearest at finish". The main angle tommorow is the fact the horse has gone to Robert Cowell who is probably the best trainer of sprinters in the country the last two seasons. He has improved numerous sprinters and if he can find the key to this one he is still relatively unexposed and 80 is a fair mark.

the 4.30 is the second division and again looks a good race with more horses very much unexposed and dropping in grade from decent contests.

I like a complete rag in CROWN CHOICE has not fired at all since leaving walter swinburn last season but horses leaving this yard have nearly all won or improved. The horse was probably badly handicapped when moved but has shown glimmers of ability in two of the runs this season in much better grade. The trainer is in fair form and i hope to at least see a bit more spark tommorow.


4.00 WOLVERHAMPTON ARTIC LYNX £40 WIN 7-1 (VCBET OR HILLS)

4.30 WOLVERHAMPTON CROWN CHOICE £20 WIN 33-1 (BET365)

thanks

[Tal]

Best of British, horseplayer.

Only objection is about the Ross brothers. Would Jonathan be in a sketch this funny?

[RickBFA]

rick i will come back to that sometime tommorow if thats ok? bit busy

Wolverhampton stage a fairly decent card for a monday tommorow and a couple of horses catch my eye.

the 4.00 is a really good race with plenty of fairly classy horses and some solid proven polytrack runners. I really like ARTIC LYNX. Has had a consistent season for John Best which is impressive in its itself considering how out of form the stable has been for most of the year.

The horse has often looked unlucky for best running on late and often earning the comment "nearest at finish". The main angle tommorow is the fact the horse has gone to Robert Cowell who is probably the best trainer of sprinters in the country the last two seasons. He has improved numerous sprinters and if he can find the key to this one he is still relatively unexposed and 80 is a fair mark.

the 4.30 is the second division and again looks a good race with more horses very much unexposed and dropping in grade from decent contests.

I like a complete rag in CROWN CHOICE has not fired at all since leaving walter swinburn last season but horses leaving this yard have nearly all won or improved. The horse was probably badly handicapped when moved but has shown glimmers of ability in two of the runs this season in much better grade. The trainer is in fair form and i hope to at least see a bit more spark tommorow.


4.00 WOLVERHAMPTON ARTIC LYNX £40 WIN 7-1 (VCBET OR HILLS)

4.30 WOLVERHAMPTON CROWN CHOICE £20 WIN 33-1 (BET365)

thanks

No probs!

[horseplayer]

artic lynx starts at 7-2 and finishes 3rd in reality probably ran the same race it often does at least i beat the price by a lot

crown choice got hampered 4 out but in reality is gone at the game at least in this grade


probably just the one tommorow night

8.00 wolverhampton

Capacious 4-1 bet365 £30 win

pretty sure this will start 5-2, unexposed unlucky last time needs to improve a little bit on that but no reason why shouldnt and trainer in really good form

running total = £862.50

[horseplayer]

Best of British, horseplayer.

Only objection is about the Ross brothers. Would Jonathan be in a sketch this funny?

very good

[horseplayer]

Rick

Re the draw at Southwell

I am always aware of the draw anywere but the draw is usually factored into the market in my opinion.

For example at southwell over 6 furlongs stall 1 and to a lesser degree 2 have a very poor recent record.

[RickBFA]

Rick

Re the draw at Southwell

I am always aware of the draw anywere but the draw is usually factored into the market in my opinion.

For example at southwell over 6 furlongs stall 1 and to a lesser degree 2 have a very poor recent record.

Thanks.

I knew I'd read about the draw somewhere.

In David-Lee Priest's book "The Betting Edge" he studied the draw there.

He concluded that for all races over 5 furlongs, ie not over the straight course, for animals within 5lb of the top weight, the outside 4 stalls had a significant advantage.

His sample was taken from races between March 2008 til July 2011. The above criteria had 429 qualifying animals and £100 invested on each returned a total of £36,300.

I have been meaning to follow this strategy since reading this and never got round to it!!

[kukushkin88]

Any thoughts on the Capacious drift horsey? I was very much in agreement with you that it looked a good bet, a bit put off by the drift though.

[horseplayer]

Any thoughts on the Capacious drift horsey? I was very much in agreement with you that it looked a good bet, a bit put off by the drift though.

i am pretty sure i didnt respect the field enough

having said that is a bit more solid the last thirty minutes than was earlier

[horseplayer]

artic lynx starts at 7-2 and finishes 3rd in reality probably ran the same race it often does at least i beat the price by a lot

crown choice got hampered 4 out but in reality is gone at the game at least in this grade


probably just the one tommorow night

8.00 wolverhampton

Capacious 4-1 bet365 £30 win

pretty sure this will start 5-2, unexposed unlucky last time needs to improve a little bit on that but no reason why shouldnt and trainer in really good form

running total = £862.50

capacious probably isnt that good but was never placed to challenge in the race, either the horse wasnt quick enough or eddie didnt fancy a hard ride either way not good enough and the market told the story.

Backing horses first time in a handicap is generally a no for me and god knows why i did it tonight.

Two i like at kempton tommorow night one ill put up now the second runs in the last race i will wait for to see how track is riding.

STREET POWER £20 WIN 7.30 KEMPTON 14-1 GENERAL

S Power has been a solid reliable enough polytrack runner for a few years now a mark of 82 certainly is by no means a gimme and is still higher than his last win, however there should be plenty of pace on here (at least 3 front runners) and this is the key to street power who will be running on late regardless. I like the fact george baker is booked for the first time in its long career if a horse was an ideal george baker ride this is it. Plenty of dangers but i feel street power is more of a 10-1 shot here, Gask the trainer has been way out of form but has had a good second and third last two days and has lots of entries for his stable the next two weeks which suggest he feels they are back in some kind of form.


running total = £832.50

cheers

[horseplayer]

not enough pace on there

quite often when there looks like being shedloads of pace on , on paper in reality the jockeys and trainers see this and change tactic they didnt crawl but i needed a pace burn up.

One more bet as the front runners seem to be holding up tonight

9.00 Kempton Blue Deer £20 win 16-1 general

Basically a horse that wins/runs well when rated around the 60 mark and gets the cheekpieces back on, has done this almost throughout his career and the handicapper has relented quickly from three poor runs , jockey booking a positive draw not ideal but he will be leading on paper should be able to at least attempt to make all

[typhoon13]

not enough pace on there

quite often when there looks like being shedloads of pace on , on paper in reality the jockeys and trainers see this and change tactic they didnt crawl but i needed a pace burn up.

One more bet as the front runners seem to be holding up tonight

9.00 Kempton Blue Deer £20 win 16-1 general

Basically a horse that wins/runs well when rated around the 60 mark and gets the cheekpieces back on, has done this almost throughout his career and the handicapper has relented quickly from three poor runs , jockey booking a positive draw not ideal but he will be leading on paper should be able to at least attempt to make all

Good Call Sir

[RedFox]

Some lead that lol

well done horsechap 

[Marky147]

Didn't quite make all.... Some ride from Crowley though

Nice to see you getting weighed in though congrats!

[AceHighSuited]

Very nice indeed.  Wish I noticed this earlier, I was looking for something to beat the favourite in this race.  Respect.