Rankings Rankings Rankings!!!!
The worlds is what it's all about, here's this years prize money...
Winner £400,000
Runner-up £170,000
Semi-finalist £85,000
Quarter-finalist £40,000
Third round losers £27,000
Second round losers £18,500
First round losers £11,000
Preliminary round losers £4,500
Nine-dart finish £20,000
With rankings tight all over, just a quarter final showing and some no-shows around you could see anyone pretty much whizz up a fair few spots, it's also the time of the year when a few people are defending a chunky number, lets look at who's defending big money this Xmas and what it means for them...
The four biggest sums are 1) Gary - £350k 2) Lewis - £150k, 3) Barney £70k and 4) Jelle £70k
Gary has a very simple task ahead of him, Peter Wright is going to start the WC's ~£365k ahead of him, Daryl Gurney is going to start ~£28k ahead of him and mensur about £22k behind him. Gary needs to comfortably out perform Daryl and Mensur to keep a grip on his top 3 spot, and I think hopes of getting #2 back should just wait until the new year, a very early exit from PW and a win for Gary is the only way. Gary Anderson will only be looking one way in the rankings this Xmas and that will be backwards. On the opposite side of this particular rankings battle, Daryl Gurney and Mensur Suljovic only really need to look forwards, the pack behind them, Lewis is defending £150k, Phil could easily overtake either/both of them but he's a dead rubber in the rankings anyway after this, with Barney defending big and Whitlock quite far back anything other than a big meltdown & super deep run from Chizzy should probably see those 2 comfortabley hold their #4/#5 spots (excluding phil taylor) and they both have a great shot at world #3 next yr, Gurney in particular.
Some good new for Adrian Lewis, for the first time in forever. He played well at the players, some several glimpses of his old self and his claims that he's non stop working look like they might even be true, added into the mix he has a really nice draw with a route he should be able to handle into the quarters, and we all know he loves these big stage events. However, it's not all good news, he's going to start the tournament about £50k outside of the world top 16, which means that a 1/4 final defeat to Peter Wright will likely not save his top 16 spot. A semi final spot though would probably get him close to the top 10, and after the year he's had that's a no harm done scenario. It's a huge ask for Lewis, out of practice, doubts about fitness, doubts about mental game, 40/1 1/2 odds EW when he has to play Wright and Anderson probably to get to the final vs MVG - not for me unfortunately, will be rooting for him but I think most likely he starts next year ranked 19th or something and then we see what he's made of. He could save his PL spot though with a decent showing, although maybe it would be good for him to skip it for a year, or maybe its his last £100k out of the game... hope not.
Barney is another who will also start the tournament outside the top 16, he might also have a tough ask as his draw is dangerous, Richard North rd1, Kyle Anderson or Peter Jacques in rd2 chizzy rnd3 and MVG in the 1/4s. Big stage guy though barney and he knows how to pull it out, I think almost for certain a quarter final defeat to MVG would hold his top 16 spot but his volume of tour events unlikely to increase next year so its only a matter of time really before barney slips outside of the top 20, deep major run here and there will keep him afloat and he's a virtual lock for the PL and I think he's fairly content.
Jelle probably in the deepest of troubles, he's going to start outside the top 16 too, and he's also got himself a minefield of a draw, Dekker rnd1, Bunting/Dimitri rnd2, Mensur rnd3, Cross/Gurney/Smith in the 1/4. Rnd 3 exit to mensur won't get him back into the top 16 and a 1/4 final will only just. The one good thing is form seems to be returning somewhat and he does grind it hard so I'd imagine fitness dependant he should be able to get himself back into the top 16 next year.
The James Wade/Whitlock/Smith battle is pretty interesting too, Whitlock is in by far the best spot as he's going to start about £25k ahead, his form has really fallen though, at exactly the wrong time, Smith looked better recently but his draw is tough, Steve Lennon no gimme in rnd 1 and Cross in rnd2 is not what the doctor ordered, his £20k buffer over Norris and Benito is gonna go i think, good news for Smith is because of Lewis/Barny/Jelle/wade dropping below him and his £40k safety net over price in #16 his top 16 sot should be safe, Norris, Benito, Price, White, Huybrechts...all capable but probably no threat - needs to sort himself out though as next year I think he'll be right in that pack of players battling for 16/15/14. Wade might be ok, his draw is OK and if he plays like he did at the players then I think he will probably get to rd 3 and should hold his top 14 spot ok barring multiple big runs behind him. Will be great for his confidence to have a decent performance here and if he gets his head down on the pro tour next year then he could possibly get back into the top 10. I would say though he's more likely to be world #28 than world number #8 next year.
Joe Cullen, Kim Huybrechts, Ian White, Gerwyn Price. Currently world 19/18/17/16. The good news for them is they are defending £10k each so are going to start the event with no decrease really, Alan Norris (#15) and Benito (#14) are defending £35k and £22k respectively and will start well in the thick of this battle, as will Micheal Smith (#13) they do however have, as do most, the Rob cross problem, the man in probably the second best form in the world defending £0 and charging them down. There is a £20-40k buffer between this group and King/Kyle/Webster/Bunting below them so I think the danger is not from behind the pack but within, good chances for any of these 4 to put in a good showing and fire themselves well up towards the top 10, just as a bad showing could see the pack break off and them be left looking over their shoulders at 20-25 whilst everyone else pushes for top 12. White and Price likely playing each other in rnd2 before a MVG showdown in rnd3, so doesn't look for for them, Huybrechts and Norris likely to play each other in rnd2 as well but they have some potentially nasty openers against James Richardson (who is super dangerous in short formats) and Kim Viljanen who is incredibly solid. Cullen's draw not great, Wattimena rnd1, Benito/Steve West rnd 2 and then Gary Rnd 3. Going to take a good showing from one of them but a great chance for someone to Power ahead.
Special mention to Chizzy, he's got himself a little island in #8, Barney going to drop way off and Lewis going to fall behind him so will start world #7, he doesn't have a great deal to defend (£22k) but the gap between him and Whitlock will close and there is very little sign of him making any inroads on Mensur and Gurney. Chizzy is safe for now, but with this tight pack behind the top 10 where a slip can see you slide 5-6 places he really doesn't want to be in that, and Rob Cross - how far will he go? Smith rnd2, Gurney rnd3 Mensur in the 1/4s and MVG in the semis, I guess a rnd3 defeat to Gurney would be very disappointing for him, and it wouldn't GTE him a top 16 spot either, dpending on how everyone else does. A lot of people will breathe a sigh of relief if he busts before the 1/4s. A semi final loss to MVG would give him a very legit top10 chance.
The last great rankings topic is Phil Taylor, somewhat incredible that a man who has played 2 ranking events this year will kick off in world #6, only £22k coming off, a very comfortable route to the 1/4s, where he's going to come across Gary Anderson - in reality this will probably be his last ever WC game... but he's almost for sure going to retire inside the world top 6. Pretty amazing, don't think anyone could root against a Phil Taylor win in this event, Gary in the 1/4 and PW in the semis and both beatable if you're Phil...don't bet against it.
As far as outright bets go, I don't think with Gary's Phil/PW/MVG 1/4s>Win route 6/1 1/2 odds can be a a big print, he's under 3/1 to final im sure but over 6/1 to win, a lot of danger about and doubts over form, not the shot to nothing it has been in previous year. Rob Cross @ 12/1 is just a joke really - the guy is incredible but he's totally unproven in this format and has a tough draw, like Arb says, big lay. With most of the top players outside the faves falling into MVG's half (mensur/gurney/cross/barney etc) the EW value needs to come from the bottom half... as much as I hate to say it I think if i was looking for an EW spot, then PW at 12/1 with 1/2 odds is probably the one, Lewis in the 1/4s and then Gary/Phil in the semi but his first few games could pose some problems, the BRazilian Portolo is pretty handy and Clayton rmd2 and then Norris/Huybrechts/Richardson etc rnd 3 are not pushovers. As I said, I don't think i can get on board with Lewis @ 40s as much as I'd like too. Mvg just going to be too hard to beat
Should be a fascinating tournament i just CANNOT WAIT!!!
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