Darts Betting and discussion

[SuuPRlim]

I actually genuinely dont have a clue what im talking about though but it's fun to pretend.

Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba

OI
OI
OI

 

[arbboy]

MVG (5/4) form in the run up has just been insane as well, and over the whole year too pretty much. He's fucking unstoppable.

Garry (15/2) really hasn't quite found the form of this time last year since the premier league, but looks to have a pretty smooth ride into the 1/4's where he is favorite to face James Wade, who is a fucking nightmare to play for anyone and if you dont play your A game you tend to get beat - but he's shown this year despite all the bottle hes just a level below the top guys, Taylor (who he beat in the final last year) is the favorite to face him in the Semi, I think Garry will be really happy with his draw, but tailed off on the scoring and dropped a few % on the dbl top this yr which is basically what won him the title last yr.

Lewis 20/1 is phenomenal when he's on it but the inconsistency just makes him un-backable if you care for your living room furniture, basically ever since that 6-0 drumming by MVG he's never found the form consistently since (I honestly thought he was going to win the whole thing that year, and I think he did too) and I think it still plays on his mind when he plays MVG. His path to the latter stages is fraught with danger too, Huybrechts in rd 3, Peter Wright/Chizzy in the quarters and then obviously a repeat of 2013 semi if he can get there. He is world class though and likes the long format...but I can just see his head dropping too easily of late and a little too much quality to get past to have a real shout, even with such attractive odds I love watching him on form too.

Phil Taylor 5/1 definitely looks to me like the most likely candidate to beat MVG, he's been consistently solid all year but but his failings under pressure at the dbl 8/16 segment is what has cost him, 3 yrs ago with 2 darts in hand at dbl 16 you can bet your house on him finishing it off, these days though not so much - the fact that his averages are still up to scratch with the best despite his starting to fail on the doubles show how good his scoring is and he's still easily got the game to win the WC/ stop the MVG wrecking ball. On a stage he has dominated I could see him finding his nerve again and if he does MVG needs to be at his best to get him. His route to the semi's is full of journeymen pro's - Kevin Painter in rnd2, probably Jelle Klasen given Mervyn King's poor form in rnd3 (I realise he's no journyman but I doubt will cause too much worry for PT) and Webster/Jenkins/Thornton/Hamilton in the 1/4's. Seems like a lock for the semi's his scoring power is too much for anyone he will face and he'll get plenty of chances to hit those doubles (except Jelle Klassen potentially but so inconsistent) and can all have changed by the time we reach the semis...

James Wade 25-1 Quarter final vs Garry and a Semi vs Phil look like a little too much to overcome for wadey, think he's a lock to get there though.

Barney 60/1 Can he do it? Go on Barny, out of form Bunting in rnd.2, MVG rnd.3, Micheal Smith in the 1/4's, Lewis/Wright/Chizzy in the Semi and then Garry or Phil in the final... Barny is one of the few genuinely capable of beating MVG, in fact very capable of beating anyone but this is too much to contemplate for Barny Sorry buddy...

Chizzy 35/1 / Peter Wright 28/1 Tough part of the draw, both in good form, Wright the favorite of the two due to his pedigree in this event, his world ranking and the fact he is generally considered to have a little more metal. I kinda fancy chizzy to have a go at it this year... Think with Lewis' inconsistency I really fancy finding a semi-finalist from these two Peter Wright losing to Chizzy 4-9 head-to-head and despite all these being over shorter formats I think Chizzy is the pick. I dont believe either can pose much of a threat to MVG the way things stand.

My bets are going to be...

Phil Taylor win 4/1 betfred EW (top 4 1/4 odds)

Chizzy to bust in the semi's 7/1

James Wade to bust in the Quarter's 9/4

Completely with Arrboy on U107.5 highest average.

I also think a small wager on Chizzy most 180s 10/1 - Garry's 180 figures have slipped a little, and given I fancy chizzy to make the semi's, and have two potentially long matches vs Peter Wright and Adrian Lewis, I think he's the one for me. MVG at evens is probably the best bet even though you would have to be mad to bet it!!!

Great write up!

The more you think about MVG it seems like the Hendry/Davis era of snooker when they went off really short every day in the pomp but just truely hosed up year after year.  Similar to Taylor/Fed as well.  You spend all week trying to get the jolly beat when the jolly is probably over priced.

Would love you to meet Painter and King irl and call them journeymen to their face. 

[SuuPRlim]

yeah, no will be Mr. King and Mr. Painter for sure

[arbboy]

yeah, no will be Mr. King and Mr. Painter for sure

Two proper Suffolk/Norfolk pikeys!  That would be my description of them.  Both hard as fuck obv!

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/nine-dart-finish

Obviously value in this market because it's an arb but i really think with Taylor in decline the chance of a 9 darter is massively over estimated here.  Can't have it that it is such a big fav.  7/4 no 9 darter looks massive to me.  Any one got any views?

[arbboy]

Most Tournament 180s

Selection   Price
Van Gerwen, Michael    EVS
Anderson, Gary    7/2
Lewis, Adrian    8/1
Chisnall, Dave    8/1
Taylor, Phil    9/1
Wright, Peter    20/1
Smith, Michael    33/1
Van Barneveld, Raymond    40/1
Huybrechts, Kim    40/1
Thornton, Robert    40/1
Wade, James    50/1
White, Ian    50/1
Jenkins, Terry    66/1
Whitlock, Simon    66/1
Van Der Voort, Vincent    100/1
King, Mervyn    100/1

Bald's list.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/winning-quarter

Another interesting way to back MVG with some insurance.  Evens first quarter wins the event.  You also get Barney, Smith, Bunting, Ian White amongst others on your side.  All of whom are lively outsiders.  Much better overall bet than taking 5/4 MVG.

Would be awesome to back this and Big John Henderson got you home for a winner!

[SuuPRlim]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/nine-dart-finish

Obviously value in this market because it's an arb but i really think with Taylor in decline the chance of a 9 darter is massively over estimated here.  Can't have it that it is such a big fav.  7/4 no 9 darter looks massive to me.  Any one got any views?

I thought of that, onyl didnt say cos I hate backing on stuff not to happen, no fun

[Bazzaboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/nine-dart-finish

Obviously value in this market because it's an arb but i really think with Taylor in decline the chance of a 9 darter is massively over estimated here.  Can't have it that it is such a big fav.  7/4 no 9 darter looks massive to me.  Any one got any views?

It has copped in 6 of last 7 year (total of 8 in that time). I don't have any stats to back it up but I don't remember seeing as many 9 dart attempts as I have this year. Conversion rate has been terrible (MVG has missed something like but that's down to variance.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/nine-dart-finish

Obviously value in this market because it's an arb but i really think with Taylor in decline the chance of a 9 darter is massively over estimated here.  Can't have it that it is such a big fav.  7/4 no 9 darter looks massive to me.  Any one got any views?

I thought of that, onyl didnt say cos I hate backing on stuff not to happen, no fun

Action junkie.  It is boring compared to knowing someone who has £200 on a 2000/1 poke which is now 20/1.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/nine-dart-finish

Obviously value in this market because it's an arb but i really think with Taylor in decline the chance of a 9 darter is massively over estimated here.  Can't have it that it is such a big fav.  7/4 no 9 darter looks massive to me.  Any one got any views?

It has copped in 6 of last 7 year (total of 8 in that time). I don't have any stats to back it up but I don't remember seeing as many 9 dart attempts as I have this year. Conversion rate has been terrible (MVG has missed something like but that's down to variance.

Surprised a firm hasn't priced up a market 'which player will get the first 9 darter?'  Pretty easy to price up and they could stick plenty of margin into it.  Would definitely appeal to the punters imo.

[Bazzaboy]

I like the 13/8 on Laursen to win the opener tomorrow. He has been a regular over the years and usually averages 87-90. Boulton isn't any better than that on stage. He averaged 87, 90, 89 in his 3 matches at the GSOD but a couple of those were inflated due to his opponents averaging 100+. His only other TV form was at the Lakeside a few years back where he averaged high 80s.

[Jamier-Host]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/nine-dart-finish

Obviously value in this market because it's an arb but i really think with Taylor in decline the chance of a 9 darter is massively over estimated here.  Can't have it that it is such a big fav.  7/4 no 9 darter looks massive to me.  Any one got any views?

It has copped in 6 of last 7 year (total of 8 in that time). I don't have any stats to back it up but I don't remember seeing as many 9 dart attempts as I have this year. Conversion rate has been terrible (MVG has missed something like but that's down to variance.

Surprised a firm hasn't priced up a market 'which player will get the first 9 darter?'  Pretty easy to price up and they could stick plenty of margin into it.  Would definitely appeal to the punters imo.

There is a market for "to hit a 9 darter" where PP seem to be much bigger than the others on most players. (6/1 MVG)

Any value there or are the rest just really tight?

[buzzharvey22]

I like the 13/8 on Laursen to win the opener tomorrow. He has been a regular over the years and usually averages 87-90. Boulton isn't any better than that on stage. He averaged 87, 90, 89 in his 3 matches at the GSOD but a couple of those were inflated due to his opponents averaging 100+. His only other TV form was at the Lakeside a few years back where he averaged high 80s.

Should have been a lock at 1-1 in sets and 2-0 in legs with 2 darts at double. Never mind.

Think id prefer snakeyb EW at 28's to chizzy 33's. Wright been pretty consistant in the tv tournaments this year and doesn't seem to lose the "easy" games that chizzy is capable of when he just has one of them off days.

[fatcatstu]

Watching Qiang Sun finish is like watching me and my mates down the pub. 2 darts completely off the board in the first set.

He is scoring well enough, but the nerves are killing him on the doubles.