Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

What's the parcours like for Amstel? I had it in my mind that it was pretty hilly, but then Bling is a short price favourite for it.

If there is enough climbs near the finish then other teams will be looking to distance him, could be plenty of value elsewhere in the market

Past years have seen a large group arrive on the final circuit to charge up the Cauberg, strong power climbers with a sprint generally win. Position & timing the key factor, so experience plays a role, as well as a strong team with numbers in the final. Only break to win in recent years was Kreuziger in 2013 with an attack in the last 20-30km

[Tonji]

I've backed Bryan Coquard 28/1 today and 66/1 for AGR on Sunday. Good weather and little winds means big groups coming to the last few kms in each race and Coquard is overpriced in those circumstances.
Nice little midweek treat this :-) just need a stream now.

Todays race is on the Bike channel in the UK, around 2ish, should be here also http://www.cyclinghub.tv/

[TommyPlus]

I've backed Bryan Coquard 28/1 today and 66/1 for AGR on Sunday. Good weather and little winds means big groups coming to the last few kms in each race and Coquard is overpriced in those circumstances.
Nice little midweek treat this :-) just need a stream now.

Todays race is on the Bike channel in the UK, around 2ish, should be here also http://www.cyclinghub.tv/

Cracking mate, just what I needed

[Tonji]

Vakoc the real deal  Signs Alaphilippe could be a factor on Sunday, strong riding today working for Vakoc

[TommyPlus]

Vakoc the real deal  Signs Alaphilippe could be a factor on Sunday, strong riding today working for Vakoc

I'm happy to stand corrected if Alaphillippe does the business on Sunday. Still not for me. A little gutted as I backed Coquard ew and he won the bunch sprint for 4th. Small crumbs in that I've backed him for Sunday at 66/1. Orica looked fairly weak as a team today, couldn't control the last 50kms even with help from other teams. The presence of Sky on Sunday working for reining champ Kwiatkowski should ensure its not a problem.

[Tonji]

Vakoc the real deal  Signs Alaphilippe could be a factor on Sunday, strong riding today working for Vakoc

I'm happy to stand corrected if Alaphillippe does the business on Sunday. Still not for me. A little gutted as I backed Coquard ew and he won the bunch sprint for 4th. Small crumbs in that I've backed him for Sunday at 66/1. Orica looked fairly weak as a team today, couldn't control the last 50kms even with help from other teams. The presence of Sky on Sunday working for reining champ Kwiatkowski should ensure its not a problem.

"I'd like to do Amstel, even if we have other guys who like that race. I am very confident about my condition. We'll see how the race unfolds and if we will ride for me or for others. We have many cards to play and we will certainly have many options. I hope to sprint in the same way I did today on the Cauberg, even after 250 kilometers. I worked a lot on my endurance. I did the Giro last year and I think it really helped me to gain strength. I love hard racing, even if 250 kilometers can be a bit long. I am convinced that with the condition that I have right now, I can make a similar effort on the Cauberg on Sunday.”
 
"I start at the Amstel Gold Race with ambition but the peloton will be qualitatively stronger. As for my condition, I have no reason to worry. But I also know that the Amstel Gold Race is difficult and, moreover, a few kilometers longer than the Brabantse Pijl. We have several cards that we can play: Bob Jungels, Julian Alaphilippe and myself.”

Quote from Vakoc.

My impression is Etixx will have Vakoc & Alaphillipe as co leaders on Sunday. Personally believe Alaphillipe's chances are better at Fleche & L-B-L, & probably needs Amstel in his legs to get his race sharpened. We'll see.

Brabantse Pijl is a notoriously difficult race for a team to control, you're right Amstel is a lot easier. Although Orica will still have trouble on Sunday, as the Sky team look to set up to send attackers out, with the likes of Kennaugh & Nordhaug. BMC will probably want to keep it tight with Gilbert if he is in shape.

Coquard can get a good result, he is certainly getting stronger over the longer distances. He'll need to find the right wheel to follow up the Cauberg, timing is everything. 

[TommyPlus]

I think the key for the Cauberg, especially for sprinters, is to go as hard as possible without hitting that infamous 'red zone' almost no time to recover and if you're in a small group nobody will work with you anyway. Best way to tackle it is go as hard as possible without destroying yourself and then see where you are and hope it comes back together on the downhill/flat. I'm happy with Coquard as my sprinter so will probably add a puncheur who is capable of blasting away and holding.
It's so hard for breaks to win this as the climbs are for the most part narrow and the big teams are always pushing it to keep their main man at the front for when the climbs begin.

[TommyPlus]

Seemed prudent to add Vakoc as my climber type bet at Hills' uber standout 30/1. Was restricted to £8.33 lol. Better than nothing.

[Tonji]

Added a couple of long shots.

Obv Sky will be working for Kwiat', but Ben Swift at 66/1 EW (best I can get, but 80/1 is there). Impressed with his climbing, always good over the longer distances, will need to be in a group that reforms after the Cauberg which can happen if the favourites mark each other, but a fast sprint from a small bunch.

Bit of a banzai, but Simon Geschke is confirmed as one of the protected riders for Giant. Parcour suits his style, strong on short climbs with a turn of speed from small groups. He raced well in 2014 here, winning the sprint for 6th in the second group. 150/1 EW.

[TommyPlus]

Just got in after a late lazy lunch. Awful coverage after we were spoiled last week.
Felline abandons after breaking his nose in a crash in the neutralised zone.

[TommyPlus]

Sky employing their usual 'burn all your doms with 100km to go' strategy that they have perfected in one day races since their inception.

[TommyPlus]

Alex Vuillemoz from AG2R crashes out. He had an outside chance today.

[TommyPlus]

Joaquim Rodriguez also down and out. Hopefully not too bad as although he had an outside chance today he was/is a genuine contender for Flèche and Liege.

[Tonji]

Finally starting to get interesting. Hope the rain holds off.

[TommyPlus]

Rain! Not good for my picks I'm afraid.