Through the streets vs JP in St.Kitts

[Eso Kral]

Thx for all the feedback so far esp Stu,Guy,Dave I'm up in Edinburgh atm and posting on phone so wont get chance to fully reply till back but

I called the chk raise so we go to the river with K5cc and the board reading

     

river      (24250)
JP 29650
Hero 43750

JP bets 14300

We?

[Honeybadger]

We have gone from being in love with our hand to giving theoretical consideration to folding turn with the best possible hand we can have! Well surely we anticipate he can c/r turn, when we bet and have a plan already? Not reasses now?

No-one is giving 'theoretical' consideration to folding. Theory says this is a call, pure and simple. Lil'Dave is considering folding as an exploitative adjustment; to crush JP through folding by exploiting the fact that he has a c/r range that only comprises nutted hands (I am not necessarily agreeing with this BTW... never been that confident in my ability to outplay great players).

As regards anticipating the c/r, two points. First, we would expect to get c/r on the turn or river here very infrequently. If JP is doing this with a really good range (i.e. a properly balanced nuts:air range) then we are indifferent to continuing in the hand and are indeed in a yukky spot. But just because he is able to occasionally put us in that spot, this does not mean that we should not bet for value. He might c/r occasionally, but far more often he will either call or fold.

Second, we ARE anticipating the c/r! Lil'Dave is anticipating it very occasionally but is 'happy' to see it because he is able to make a great fold to exploit JP's overly nutted range. Most other people (inc me) would be anticipating it happening sometimes but would be planning on calling down.

[Pugwashed]

Thx for all the feedback so far esp Stu,Guy,Dave I'm up in Edinburgh atm and posting on phone so wont get chance to fully reply till back but

I called the chk raise so we go to the river with K5cc and the board reading

     

river      (24250)
JP 29650
Hero 43750

JP bets 14300

We?

I think K5 is still high enough enough up in our range that we can call and not feel too bad about getting shown a better hand (without any reason to make an exploitative adjustment). It's also possible he can be value betting worse 5x

[Honeybadger]

Thx for all the feedback so far esp Stu,Guy,Dave I'm up in Edinburgh atm and posting on phone so wont get chance to fully reply till back but

I called the chk raise so we go to the river with K5cc and the board reading

     

river      (24250)
JP 29650
Hero 43750

JP bets 14300

We?

Call. Expect to lose more often than you win obviously, but do expect him to be bluffing some here. We are getting a price, and we even beat some of his value range (which means that this is not a true 'indifferent to calling' spot).

Obviously if you are Lil'Dave and have a great read that JP always has a FH here then you adjust by folding. Or maybe you have a sick in-game read on him that he is strong here, in which case you also adjust by folding. But this is an exploitative adjustment and no-one can know what reads your spidey-senses were giving you during the hand but you.

As I stated above, I have never been so confident in my own abilities that I believe I can massively outplay a great player by making some sort of hero fold here. But in-game even a mediocre player like myself can occasionally have a flash of genius and make a ninja-read... and if this happened to you during the hand and you were really, really sure that he has you beaten, then by all means fold. But remember that this is a pretty big adjustment to make, so you have to be very sure of your read to do it. Like I said, I am rarely so confident in my read vs a good player that I feel I can outplay them so extremely.

[SuuPRlim]

I'm not suggesting JP's turn c/r range is really really tight, nor that he would be, in general unbalanced or super polarised with his turn play - nor am I sure that he "always" has a FH when he c/r the turn - if it was me he was playing then everything would be totally different I'm basically saying, in a vacuum spot here, as Rich just folding NOW might be a better play than call/calling - it goes without saying at this point that from a theoretical angle K5 is way too good of a hand, and JP's likely to have the correct number of bluffs that folding is completely out of the question.

Thing is this is one hand, and there is no history, we're in a tournament and we're playing one of the better players in the tournament, our stack is good and the EV of a call/call won't ACTUALLY be that high (will certainly be +EV) I also think in this specific vacuum spot JP is likely to be for value way more than the theoretical mean. Given that Rich's percieved range is a lot stronger than it would be in theory (plenty of mid strength hands that SHOULD be bet OTT or OTF I imagine would have been checked in this specific instance)

I think you can make a really good case for folding based on those points alone, whilst ofc being fully aware that call/call is the totally stnd play.

There are huge advantages to be gained from being seen as passive if you arent!

If you play passively, you'll be seen as passive, therefore making you passive - passiveness isn't really something you can "put on" if you check the turn with K5 here and then find yourself with AJhh on 664hh9 and now you wanna bet you're (semi)bluffing nearly always

[outragous76]

But we arent just seen as passive vs JP ldo

[youthnkzR]

Honestly don't know why there is such a debate on this hand. Call river OP and hand is played perfectly imo, raising is too thin and folding is just out of the question.

Pretty interested to hear results tbh.

[SuuPRlim]

yh im not saying we should fold, I'm just saying you can defo make a vacuum case for it - I dont remember this hand from StK but my instincts if i was watching it and knew what Rich had would my instinct would be to try fold OTT, obviously though you have an easy "good" play in call/call.

This is all with the benefit of alot more info that Rich had at the time though so it's kinda irrelevant - I'm just saying folding the turn is better than call/fold and raising is way too thin so the next bext option behind call/call is to fold the turn so we should AT least consider it.  If JP's bluffing/vbetting frequencies are good then we're not actually making THAT much money on a call/call so I don't think it's even actually a hugely exploitative play in a vacuum. Preserving our stack and sacrificing some chips might be slighty more preferable in THIS tournament than playing thin guessing games.

But we arent just seen as passive vs JP ldo

Im not sure why we'd wanna be seen as passive, it's like the nut low way to play.

[outragous76]

But we arent just seen as passive vs JP ldo

Im not sure why we'd wanna be seen as passive, it's like the nut low way to play.

Because people play thinking you will fold  - obv!

Having people raise/give up on you OOP and not showing down and being assumed to "have it" can be a very easy way to pick up chips. Or people assuming you fold and get it in vs you terrible -

obvioulsy in the longer term it isnt going to last, but if people assume you are passive due to the above hand then you should obvioulsy adjust to that in game.

[SuuPRlim]

I think we're confusing TIGHT and PASSIVE here guy.

Chking back K5 on the turn would be passive imo, not tight.

[gouty]

Villains turn c/r begs the question "what is he putting us on"?

The answer is probably not a 5x hand. So therefore why would he c/r a boat when he would be so far ahead.

Shove now to fold out 67 which is all that is beating you.

[outragous76]

The point being - I have been castigated for taking my passive line vs an aggro player,

We have a nutted yet susceptible hand (given action), but you have essentially suggested that JP isnt getting in a world of chips without having it (and admittedly some of his "it" we beat).

So why get to a positon where we hate our nutted hand vs a very good player, in a tournament where there are a tonne of better spots and we have lots of chips. We essentially in this hand end up bluff catching with the top of our range. You have by no means extracted max value from your hand and you are "hoping/guessing" by the river that you are right against a polarised range.

What do we do in this hand when the river flushes? We hate 20% of river cards, let alone the fact we might already be beat

There is nothing wrong with being passive in an isolated spot, providing that isnt your game and you recognise what view the table will take and adjusrt accordingly.

[Doobs]

The point being - I have been castigated for taking my passive line vs an aggro player,

We have a nutted yet susceptible hand (given action), but you have essentially suggested that JP isnt getting in a world of chips without having it (and admittedly some of his "it" we beat).

So why get to a positon where we hate our nutted hand vs a very good player, in a tournament where there are a tonne of better spots and we have lots of chips. We essentially in this hand end up bluff catching with the top of our range. You have by no means extracted max value from your hand and you are "hoping/guessing" by the river that you are right against a polarised range.

There is nothing wrong with being passive in an isolated spot, providing that isnt your game and you recognise what view the table will take and adjusrt accordingly.

There is a lot of very good explanation in the thread already as to why we should bet the turn. 

We can all suspect this hand will end up badly or it likely wouldn't be here.  Just because the hand has turned nasty on us doesn't make betting the turn wrong.  Likewise we call the river knowing we are likely behind, but it can still be correct.  We just guesstimate we are going to be correct enough to justify taking the odds offered.

If we took the passive line here, we are likely to lose less chips.  But for each hand we lose less chips, there are several where we don't make as many.

I just don't see any long term gain through playing trips like you have nothing and then 5 betting 78 suited like a boss to take advantage of our theoretical passive/nitty table image.

[outragous76]

The point being - I have been castigated for taking my passive line vs an aggro player,

We have a nutted yet susceptible hand (given action), but you have essentially suggested that JP isnt getting in a world of chips without having it (and admittedly some of his "it" we beat).

So why get to a positon where we hate our nutted hand vs a very good player, in a tournament where there are a tonne of better spots and we have lots of chips. We essentially in this hand end up bluff catching with the top of our range. You have by no means extracted max value from your hand and you are "hoping/guessing" by the river that you are right against a polarised range.

There is nothing wrong with being passive in an isolated spot, providing that isnt your game and you recognise what view the table will take and adjusrt accordingly.

There is a lot of very good explanation in the thread already as to why we should bet the turn. 

We can all suspect this hand will end up badly or it likely wouldn't be here.  Just because the hand has turned nasty on us doesn't make betting the turn wrong.  Likewise we call the river knowing we are likely behind, but it can still be correct.  We just guesstimate we are going to be correct enough to justify taking the odds offered.

If we took the passive line here, we are likely to lose less chips.  But for each hand we lose less chips, there are several where we don't make as many.

I just don't see any long term gain through playing trips like you have nothing and then 5 betting 78 suited like a boss to take advantage of our theoretical passive/nitty table image.

In Deepstack tournament poker? Nothing wrong with small balling vs the best player on the table

[WotRTheChances]

Checking the turn here would be terrible imo. Literally couldn't care less who the villain is, there is no-one it could be whereby checking is a viable option. It's a perfect spot to bet and get a chunk of value from pair/pair+draw/big draws. Sure JP is a good player, but good players aren't going to be able to make our life tough in this spot ever. Sure sometimes he'll c/r the turn and bet the river... but even doing this (about as much pressure as he can exert), we are still pretty happy calling knowing it's +cEV. Much prefer betting turn and checking back some rivers, rather than going for semi-thin value on bad rivers.

Checking here could lead to us getting 1 street of value when we flop the abso top of our range. You just cant expect to pass up on these spots and expect to go deep in a decent comp... people will notice these weak/passive tendencies and just own you later on. Almost prefer 3-betting the turn to checking it. If you called river you played the hand perfectly imo. I know Dave has said you could fold turn, but with no history folding would be pretty absurd.