Bill and Ted's Excellentes Aventures

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[iangascoigne]

  What a hero Tighty is to post these excellent snaps. He may also have spotted that the silks have as their base the 1966 SWFC football strip.

[iangascoigne]

And thanks to Doobs for the link.

[iangascoigne]

     Had a txt last night from the boy informing me that Bingo has 'gone up 11lbs'  to 125. He describes this as a handicapping disaster. On the positive side it means he will be able to enter some fun Saturday races. More news to follow on a diary which will end at Cheltenham.............

[iangascoigne]

       Well it looks like the next outing for Bingo will be Monday 28th March at Chepstow or Saturday 2nd April at Newbury. Both races will be 2m,both nice big galloping tracks that we know he likes. Oh what fun.
        Next week sees the boy off to Cheltenham on Tuesday and Wednesday with me carrying the family flag on Thursday and maybe Friday if my liver can take it. I am sure Ed has loads of tips for Cheltenham. These must be avoided at all costs. Don't say I didn't warn you. He can sound very credible.

[edgascoigne]

Cross post from my daily City-based bulletin....

Calling all brokers, bookmakers, City money-makers.

It's time for the hotly-anticipated (nonsense, but it sounds good) preview of the first day of the Cheltenham Festival. Any man and his dog could tip up Min/Douvan/Annie Power but I'll be looking for a bit of value amongst some of the longer priced runners. Obviously none of the following constitutes regulatory advice, nor benefits from the St. James's Place Guarantee...

1330 - Supreme Novice Hurdle

A clear favourite in Min, and as always there'll be a bucketload of Irish come over for the week that will either be cockahoop or absolutely skinto after the first race given the build up this horse has had. I'll never forget Dunguib getting turned over in the same race, however, and some of the Irish heading for the turnstiles - there's a whole week of racing chaps...stake accordingly.

More recent history has seen Mullins/Walsh/Ricci combine to great effect but that's probably in the price. If anyone pushes Min to 3/1 then he's a bet, but at the 2/1-9/4 mark I think he can be left alone.

The atmosphere at Cheltenham ahead of the first race is pretty electric and it can prove a lot for a novice to cope with - many leave their race behind at the start. One contender who should have no such difficulties is Silver Concorde available at 16/1. Dermot Weld's charge won the Champion Bumper in 2014 and brings the experience of an 8yo to the track. Davy Russell rides and is tough as they come, and I fancy this one to make the frame at a price. Either back it each-way or in the "without Min" market.

1410 - The Arkle

Douvan is a monster, and will win. He's very short however (4/11 best price) so unless you've an iron constitution it might be worth looking at intelligent alternatives.

Bettered go 9/4 Sizing John in the 'without Douvan' market, which is frankly an embarrassing piece of bookmaking. Henry de Bromhead's horse sports the same silks as erstwhile Champion Chase hero Sizing Europe and, whilst he may not be quite the horse just yet, he's been shaping well. He's got used to finishing second to Douvan when the pair meet, and I fancy the same outcome today.

1450 - Ultima Handicap Chase

Now we're getting into it. A proper big field handicap. None of this top-grade nonsense, let's try to work out who's plotted up what.

Neil Mulholland is very shrewd indeed and runs The Young Master and Carol's Destrier, both of whom have chances. The former had a prep run in the Cleeve Hurdle in 'orrible ground that won't have suited, and this is the same prep route that Mulholland took with last year's winner The Druid's Nephew. TDN had big, bad Barry Geraghty up top, however, whilst The Young Master must make do with 'spaghetti-arms' Sam Waley-Cohen.

Looking for alternatives, I like three against the field: Southfield Theatre, Indian Castle and Band of Blood, all around the 20-25/1 mark. You should also be able to get 1/4 the odds 5 places on each way bets which is a very handy concession indeed.

Southfield Theatre has been pretty highly tried and, in my opinion, patently not right in his two engagements this season. Nicholls is nobody's fool, however, and one of the stable lads tweeted a photo of Southfield Theatre looking an absolute picture a few days back. 2nd in the Pertemps and 3rd in this race a couple of years back he loves the track and the drying ground.

Indian Castle runs for punting owners, and I can't get the niggling doubt of a Son of Flicka-sequel coup out of my mind. This wouldn't be Ian Williams' first rodeo, and this horse was beat 5l into 4th in this race last year off 139. He runs today off 134.....go figure.

Band of Blood runs for the oh-so-canny-butter-wouldn't-melt-I'm-a-doctor-don't-you-know Dr Richard Newland, who has been known to plot one up on occasion. I've been given this by a connection who once got warned off the racecourse, so I'm largely backing the man rather than any deeper knowledge, but when this chap tells you to back something it's worth an interest.

1530 - Champion Hurdle

The day's big race and a favourite that's been taking a walk in the betting since she was supplemented. Annie Power will be best known to casual racing fans as "that horse that feel at the final flight when I stood to win a massive fourfold", but she is certainly a great mare. This is different however and, whilst she gets a 7lb mares' allowance, she didn't figure in Mullins' plans for the race before everything started to go a bit wrong.

I've no strong opinion in the race so am wavering over a 'no-bet', but this is Cheltenham and that would be terribly dull. Camping Ground could look a massive price having hacked all over everything in the Relkeel Hurdle but I'm not convinced this is the best of his ground. Identity Thief seems to be the each-way bet the Irish are starting to talk up, principally as they believe the better ground will suit and that Nichols Canyon bottomed himself out seeing this one away in the Ryanair at Leopardstown.

My Tent or Yours can be had (just about) at a double digit price, and in what looks a relatively weak renewal I think is worth a few shekels. 'Chemical' Nicky Henderson has got previous for disappointing when expected, and popping up with forgotten horses, see the 1000/1 Binocular coup, and if MTOY is back anywhere near his best he'd have half a chance. Back win only as he'll either be bang there or pulled up, and keep stakes sensible...

1610 - Mares' Hurdle

Vroum Vroum Mag looks something a bit special and a shade of odds against could prove fair. I wouldn't dissuade you from doubling VVM and Douvan for a 15/8 double.

Polly Peachum is the best of the rest and a knocking each-way bet lest the favourite disappoints. Make sure you're getting 1/4 the odds and you'll have the best of it at 6/1+.

1650 - The 4 miler

You can study the form all you want in this one, but if your pilot is a lot worse than the other pilots its a bit like bringing a knife to a gun fight. Imagine being an amateur jock and picking up a ride in this - you'd be petrified/over the moon/flooded with adrenaline. Not exactly ideal preparation over the marathon trip.

Jamie Codd is about as cool a customer as you'll find at this level, rides at the back and waits to pick off the runners one by one. He'll settle Noble Endeavour out the back and away from trouble and make his play late. Beaten only by Killultagh Vic in the Martin Pipe last year the horse likes Cheltenham, and could be VERY fairly weighted off 140. Gordon Elliot isn't one to misjudge the trip his horses need (when the money is down) and whilst JP's horse Minella Rocco will likely be gambled this just props up the price of Noble Endeavour. Bet win only.

1730 - Novices Handicap Chase

A slightly stupid race that revolves around trainers trying to land their novices a mark between 135-140 and then putting them away less they ruin their chances of getting in with a good performance.

Katgary hasn't been overly popular in the markets overnight but this is probably because it's Nicholls' second string behind Bouvreuil who has more obvious claims. Quite how the handicapper can feel comfortable assessing Katgary I'm not too sure, but I'd imagine Nicholls is pretty content with the mark given he's not been seen since last of three in Doncaster in December. Graham Wylie bought the horse to make a chaser, but he still managed a 3/4 length second in the Fred Winter a couple of years back. At a big price you can take an each way chance, and Betfair offer an extra place, paying 5.

[booder]

Excellant write-up , thank you

[TightEnd]

ffs, this week is going to be expensive. placed bets then read this......

good luck this week

[Doobs]

ffs, this week is going to be expensive. placed bets then read this......

good luck this week

I didn't see this, and we don't seem to have much overlap.

I was sat next to him and fairly sure Neil was talking about Silver Concorde on Saturday evening.

I also backed Katgary in the last, but was more a cheltenham'd out, must have a bet.  Southfield Theatre just missed the final cut, so may have to revisit.

[iangascoigne]

   Boom. ' Sizing John in the without Douvan' market.

[edgascoigne]

You'd always rather a horse finished strongly than tailed off. Let's hope this applies to the week's tips, as yesterday was pretty poor.

What went well?

- We were right not to back Min.
- 9/4 Sizing John (w/out Douvan) was a winner, as was the straight forecast of him following the wonder that is Douvan home.
- The 15/8 Vroum Vroum Mag and Douvan double copped.

What went terribly?

- Silver Concorde may still be going in the Supreme.
- The handicappers we backed unseated, nowhere, non-runner, nowhere. Strong.
- Noble Endeavour fell and Native River (who I backed for the RSA, sigh) scuppered the "best jockeys in the race" tricast.


Well, faint heart never won fair maiden. We go again.

1330 - Neptune

Yorkhill probably carries the most rock-solid novice hurdling form around this season, with form lines all over the shop suggesting his Tolworth win at Sandown was a very fine performance indeed. He should hold both O O Seven (think about it, nice) and Welsh Shadow.

The Neptune is a favourite's race, traditionally. Perhaps it's the slightly longer trip than the Supreme, maybe it's that it doesn't tend to carry a single horse that carry the hopes of a nation, maybe it's just variance. If Yorkhill looks very solid, however, then Yanworth could be something very special indeed. He absolutely hacked up in the end of January trial around Cheltenham, and when Barry Geraghty jumped off he wasn't exactly playing the horse down.

Quite what the best way to tackle the race is I'm not sure, but Paddy Power are first up in the combination forecast market (first two, any order) at 6/4. Gut feel is that we'll get a bit more than that if/when others price the market up, and I think if you can get anything like 7/4+ it's a very solid bet.

1410 - RSA

This is a race for seriously tough cookies - 3 miles around the old course for a novice is no laughing matter. If you look through the role call of previous winners you'll find any number of horses that ground their way to the top of the tree: Denman, Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere.

More of That won last year's world hurdle, and whilst that looked a pretty scrotty rendition of the staying hurdle Championship, Annie Power did the form a few favours yesterday. He then had Ballyalton well beaten on the same track in November. He's not run since December though, and whilst ostensibly he's been weighting for better ground, I see massive value in greater experience in a race as tough as this.

I can't be having Shaneshill as the 3 mile trip looks a case of having a runner in the race rather than anything more precise. Blacklion would be a popular, local, winner but I don't think he has the class. Roi des Francs was held by Monksland round Gowran, a horse that got absolutely smashed by.....

No More Heroes at Leopardstown. Punted for last year's potato race Gordon Elliot has made no secret of the regard he holds the horse in. It's a great chance for Bryan Cooper to take a bit of the pressure off and I fancy this one will see money for it. 5/2 seems fair but I fancy someone will push it to 3/1 as an offer - that is must bet territory.

1450 - Coral Cup

"If it's there I'll give you the money myself" - Catchphrase (?)

Finding the winner of the Coral Cup isn't exactly a walk in the park, but I think I have it. Technically that's now thought I had it as Pipe team aren't sending King's Palace back over hurdles. Back to the drawing board...

Blazer will likely prove popular. Sporting JP's silks and erstwhile favourite for the Betfair Hurdle after sluicing in over in Ireland he was disappointing last out but could be excused owing to the tight turnaround between races. In a race like this you're not looking for a horse that will grind away respectably, you're either a stone well in or you're not, and Blazer does have the capacity to tick this box.

Blood Cotil isn't exactly going to sneak in unnoticed in Rich Ricci's silks and he's been prominent in the antepost markets for any number of races for a long time. He's not been seen over hurdles for the last couple of years, and pitches up here off a very 'attainable' mark. He went off 4/1 jolly for the Grand Annual last year (pulled up after jumping poorly) but a return to a slightly longer trip and the small obstacles should suit. At 12/1 he's got to be on the shortlist.

1530 - Queen Mum

This should be a fun one, as Un de Sceaux looks to show that anything Douvan can do, he can do better.

People struggle to forget/forgive a couple of crashing falls early in his chasing career but (at the risk of tempting fate) his jumping has looked much more assured of late. There's a very strong case of "if he gets round, he wins" here, and I'm not too sure I see the logic of him being 8/11 when Douvan was sent off 2/7 - one of these prices just must be wrong. I'm pretty comfortable recommending a chunky bet at 8/11 with a view to laying it off at prices from 8/15 down. You should end up with a nice free bet on a horse that should win.

The each way shape of the race is very nice indeed, but you may need to be a bit wary of backing what looks like a parade of former Baywatch superstars past their prime and completing the walk of shame home. I'd love nothing more than to eat my words as the mighty Sprinter hacks home, but I'm afraid I just don't see it.

Felix Yonger and God's Own both represent decent each way bets to my mind.

1610 - X-Country

Again there's a few whose best days may be behind them in here. Jodie's Orders is no such horse, however, though it's in the price as the favourite. I know nothing about any of these, really, so will leave well alone.

1650 - Fred Winter

There's a couple I like in here, namely Voix du Reve and Le Curieux.

The former was prominent in the triumph betting for a goodly while but now rediverts here and represents Ruby's choice. The latter remains trained by Francois Nicolle (sure he will move next season) but now sports the Green and Gold of JP. Quite how the handicapper can mark up the horse off a few flimsy races in French ground I've no idea, but I fancy this one might tighten up in price through the day. It's a very tricky race however so stakes relatively minimal.

1730 - Champion Bumper

Ask an Irishman. Not a horse, but a strategy.

[mondatoo]

Superb write ups Ed.

Agree re Sprinter Sacre <3

Why do you think not much was said about what was a superb Equine performance on here, I expected a ton of posts  ?

[iangascoigne]

    Bingo's next outing will not be at Chepstow on Monday but Newbury on Friday on Saturday next week.
Will keep his army of fans informed as soon as the trainer decides which one gives us the best chance of a result.

[edgascoigne]

Bad news, team. Just as Bingo had been confirmed to go for his Saturday engagement at Newbury we got the below update:


"I've just had a call from Noel with some bad news. Bingo has suffered a fracture to one of his hind fetlocks whilst working this morning. (The attached image will show you where the fetlock is for those of us that aren't sure).

It's a clean fracture but will require a couple of screws - the surgery for which will be undertaken this evening.

The implications are not terrible but it does mean an end to this season. He'll have box rest and then a summer break, we should be back as good as new for next season.

A disappointing end to this season particularly with such a good last run (and a great opportunity to repeat this weekend). Let me know if you'd like to discuss."




So.....the Gascoigne experience of horse ownership continues. One win apiece, neither of which were attended, followed by a spell on the sidelines. Such is life!! Let's hope he comes back sound into next season.

[stumpythefish]

A real shame hopefully comes back next year bigger and stronger.The horse it beat won today so the form looks solid good luck next year