Like Sport, Love Winners - Bettingemporium.com

[Bad Beat]

 I must admit, I didn't think of average price matched as a thing. I am on Betfair way more than is healthy for a young chap and I'm very much in the dark about a lot of the workings of "the machine" and what historical data you can extract.

 I do actually know the best way to measure how the gambling is going...

...if you just look in your bank account, it normally gives a pretty fair reflection.

 Joe told me a couple of years ago he was working on something in football. Since then he has told me a little more about it. It sounds interesting, I believe him when he shows me the spreadsheet he has saying how much he has won because I trust him and he's a good guy who has been around gambling a long time.

 I have been working hard on Black Belt Poker for a few years now and one thing I learned early on is that every single person in the universe is not your potential customer base. There will be people in the world who are not suited to the product or service that you are offering, they won't benefit from it, they may not see the value in it, they may not be able to afford it and there will be people in the world you don't really want to sell to, they may be difficult to deal with, they may want things that you aren't selling, the product may not be for them.

 I learned to accept that early. It seems that there may be some people in the thread who are slightly cynical and who really aren't too interested in betting on other people's suggestions. I find a lot of people are much happier picking their own bets out - that is part of the fun of it.

 My advice to anyone like that is to not spend too much of your valuable time pouring scorn on what we are trying to do. If it's not for you, that's fine, go on with your business and we'll try and live without you.

[Bad Beat]

 For anyone who is interested, then join the club...I don't really know what we are going to do either.

 Joe has a website, a software developer, some sofware he has developed already, a public persona, a database of gamblers and an interest in winning money. He knows that I have a few of those things too and he thought maybe we could link up and make something interesting happen.

 I think it's fair to say that neither of us know what that interesting thing is going to be and the day after he told me what he was thinking I flew to Australia and I haven't spoken to him since.

 For now, we are having a think about something we may do quite soon.

 If you like gambling, you are interested in making money, you think we are Ok blokes who aren't out to con anyone and you want to have fun along the way then feel free to put in your email.

 If those things don't apply to you then feel free to leave us alone.

[tikay]

Love the final paras of both those Posts.

Like both of you, I have spent a long time working for, or with, Online Poker Sites & Forums.

Many people do not like the Forums, or software, or poker site, or whatever, & chase me up hill & down dale abusing me, &/or the Product.

There is a HUGE choice out there.

And I am not allowed to say, but I cannot help but think........

Guys, if you don't like my wares.......

The world of Online is a VERY odd place.

[adnmdv]

I must admit, I didn't think of average price matched as a thing. I am on Betfair way more than is healthy for a young chap and I'm very much in the dark about a lot of the workings of "the machine" and what historical data you can extract.

You can get pretty much every price matched, at what time, at what price, for what volume using their historical data service. I just don't understand there why you'd use average price rather than closing price (given that both are available to you).

I do actually know the best way to measure how the gambling is going...

...if you just look in your bank account, it normally gives a pretty fair reflection.

In a large enough sample yes, but over ~100 bets? It's not that ~100 bets isn't enough to determine your edge, it's that you can't determine your edge from results - any look at a binomial calculator will show you this. I'm not disbelieving that £X has been made up to this point, I'm just in doubt as to whether that's likely to be anywhere near the rate of return in the future. Using it as your headline on your website suggests that, yes, you think it will be.

I learned to accept that early. It seems that there may be some people in the thread who are slightly cynical and who really aren't too interested in betting on other people's suggestions. I find a lot of people are much happier picking their own bets out - that is part of the fun of it.

In general there's good reason to be cynical about tipster services. They could be good but much more often than not, aren't. Asking questions about is the way to try and find out. As you can probably tell, I'm not likely to sign up to this, it's obviously not for me. The reason why I'm still posting though is that I feel you might end up misleading people by using 'average Betfair' measures and such.

[Nico29]

Above poster seems to either troll* for a living or just be on a crusade to tell ppl they are wrong.

Not just itt either.

It's always you are wrong, this aint right, you can't say this, meh, meh, meh.

Yeah they are clearly articulate and intelligent, but they are also stringing out/demanding every last drop of explanation constantly over anything they can't comprehend fully.

It's like a baby wanting something from its parent and then screaming the house down when they aren't given it.

Makes my head hurt.

Sighs.

*Yeah i know it now looks like i'm trolling them, i'm really not- just thoroughly exhausted from reading their posts.

I've nothing to do with the venture, yet am excited by the potential of it and just don't know why some have to always find fault over nothing.

[The Camel]

Above poster seems to either troll* for a living or just be on a crusade to tell ppl they are wrong.

Not just itt either.

It's always you are wrong, this aint right, you can't say this, meh, meh, meh.

Yeah they are clearly articulate and intelligent, but they are also stringing out/demanding every last drop of explanation constantly over anything they can't comprehend fully.

It's like a baby wanting something from its parent and then screaming the house down when they aren't given it.

Makes my head hurt.

Sighs.

*Yeah i know it now looks like i'm trolling them, i'm really not- just thoroughly exhausted from reading their posts.

I've nothing to do with the venture, yet am excited by the potential of it and just don't know why some have to always find fault over nothing.

To be fair to admdv, imo his posts (apart from the ones on this thread) have been a lot more useful and have actually been a positive contribution to the various topics than they were prior to his sabbatical.

[action man]

we already lost a sharpy in arbboy when he was accused of trolling in blatchgate,
He is clearly as knowledable as they come. I see no ulterior motive in this. Trust me when someone like adnmdv talks about sports betting, we should all listen

[EvilPie]

I don't really want to post a load of figures on here (because I want you to come to the site to look at them all obviously   ) but so far this season (to Jan 20th) there have been 107 over 2.5 bets with 67 winners and at average Betfair prices and a 5% commission it is showing over £1400 profit to a level £100 stake and we are very happy with that. It's not sexy, no 10/1 winners here, it's a bit of boring number crunching but it has been profitable and we hope that it will continue to be.

Thanks for taking the time to reply. If your betting is as profitable on Betfair as you suggest why would you start a tipping service?

I don't see these as mutually exclusive. 

Sorry for appearing cynical but I really don't get this. As it's about gambling on betfair you'd have no problem at all getting as much money as you want on at the price you think is value.

The only reason for giving this info away would be if you can't fund the bets yourself. I doubt this is an issue so why offer this service?

I'm not deliberately trying to flame here I just don't get it.

I can understand tipping services that recommend prices with other bookies as the tipsters can't get their own bets on so give the tips in return for a subscription fee. With betfair though it makes no sense to me at all.

Maybe I'm just being stupid.

[Nico29]

we already lost a sharpy in arbboy when he was accused of trolling in blatchgate,
He is clearly as knowledable as they come. I see no ulterior motive in this. Trust me when someone like adnmdv talks about sports betting, we should all listen

Totally disagree with you, just because someone is 'sharp' doesn't mean they need to be so damn rude.

Admv is only interested in pointing out everything that's 'wrong'-I see very little positives in his musings, he'd argue over the toss of a coin for days.

Yes arrboy did one great thing, yet he milked it for every last drop, and wouldn't ever, ever, everrrr......let the thing go.

And from having played poker with him online years back, i know how this was completely consistent with his online persona when he used to behave atrociously in the chatbox.

Met him irl and thought he seemed fine, maybe just a keyboard warrior, I dunno.

Still glad he doesn't post here with his 'style' of writing.

[Nico29]

Above poster seems to either troll* for a living or just be on a crusade to tell ppl they are wrong.

Not just itt either.

It's always you are wrong, this aint right, you can't say this, meh, meh, meh.

Yeah they are clearly articulate and intelligent, but they are also stringing out/demanding every last drop of explanation constantly over anything they can't comprehend fully.

It's like a baby wanting something from its parent and then screaming the house down when they aren't given it.

Makes my head hurt.

Sighs.

*Yeah i know it now looks like i'm trolling them, i'm really not- just thoroughly exhausted from reading their posts.

I've nothing to do with the venture, yet am excited by the potential of it and just don't know why some have to always find fault over nothing.

To be fair to admdv, imo his posts (apart from the ones on this thread) have been a lot more useful and have actually been a positive contribution to the various topics than they were prior to his sabbatical.

Maybe i've missed this and if so I can only apologise, I just speak from witnessing his constant crit in tips for tikay pre sab and now itt.

Dunno why I care tbh, i'll let others smarter debate this while I stick to doing my nuts backing scots football teams in europe.

[action man]

i dont see it as rude, more friendly debate

[Nico29]

i dont see it as rude, more friendly debate

fair enough

[JoeBeevers]

I don't really want to post a load of figures on here (because I want you to come to the site to look at them all obviously   ) but so far this season (to Jan 20th) there have been 107 over 2.5 bets with 67 winners and at average Betfair prices and a 5% commission it is showing over £1400 profit to a level £100 stake and we are very happy with that. It's not sexy, no 10/1 winners here, it's a bit of boring number crunching but it has been profitable and we hope that it will continue to be.

Thanks for taking the time to reply. If your betting is as profitable on Betfair as you suggest why would you start a tipping service?

I don't see these as mutually exclusive. 

Sorry for appearing cynical but I really don't get this. As it's about gambling on betfair you'd have no problem at all getting as much money as you want on at the price you think is value.

The only reason for giving this info away would be if you can't fund the bets yourself. I doubt this is an issue so why offer this service?

I'm not deliberately trying to flame here I just don't get it.

I can understand tipping services that recommend prices with other bookies as the tipsters can't get their own bets on so give the tips in return for a subscription fee. With betfair though it makes no sense to me at all.

Maybe I'm just being stupid.

Hi Evilpie,

You are not being stupid, I have already said that I am always cynical any time someone claims to make a profit gambling,  I have been around for a while ;-)

I realise that you're not flaming. I'll do my best to explain.

I'm not sure why you would think 'that' the only reason for 'giving this info away' though. There are many reasons.

I don't want to give away our whole business plan (most of which is still up for discussion anyway) but there are many advantages that Neil and I have doing this over two randoms. The biggest cost in an exercise like this is marketing. Neil and I have that covered in spades and it will cost us very little if anything. There are other advantages in that we may get to work with others who we can learn from and profit from too. We hope to bring more people on board at some point. The bets that are being discussed on here are only going to be a small part of the whole thing.

We want to build the site and the brand 'BettingEmporium' - what better way to do that than to tip some winners and to get people talking?

Of course I back my own selections but within my bankroll. I don't see why the site and betting the selections are mutually exclusive as I have said. These particular markets are pretty efficient and liquid.

We hope to have some fun too.

Joe

[Bad Beat]

 Anyone pointing out that around 100 bets is not a big enough sample size to test conclusively whether a system that is winning betting things at roughly evs works is correct. As it happens Joe has been doing this for a while, (more than 100 bets), he just used that as an example. He is a fairly cautious guy, (extremely so for a pro-gambler), and he tested his theories out over many seasons before he bet a carrot, so I know the sample is larger. He just chose to mention this season as he's upped his stakes and is taking it very seriously.

 I would also say that Phil Ivey has probably played less than 1000 poker tournaments in his life. That is absolutely nowhere near enough to know if he is profitable at playing poker tournaments.

 If Phil Ivey asked me to stake him in a tournament I would do so, because I have watched him play poker, I have played poker with hi and I've seen how he operates.

 I decided that I liked Joe's chances of winning in a similar way.

 If you choose not to see it that way, then fine, no problem. It is possible this thing may not be for you.

 I am slightly confused though ADMDV. Are you saying Joe and I have come here to deliberately mislead people? Do you believe our business will be some sort of scam and you are here to defend everyone against us, despite the fact we haven't really said what our business will do? Do you believe that we should give away all details of our plans to you just because you demand to know how we plan to operate, even though you have zero intention of becoming a customer?

 Are you some sort of guardian of the internet looking to defend the little man against exploitation and protect the world from criminal masterminds?

 Couldn't you find some bankers, fraudsters, politicians or sportsmen to go after instead of two poker players who are just trying to start a little project which might men they have a little fun and possibly, (it isn't a fucking crime you know), make some money?

 Seriously, why do you care?

[Bad Beat]

 To answer EvilPie...

 Joe bets on football every week and has done for many years. He sometimes pops-up with a bet on poker, snooker, special bets etc and I have found him over the years to be a good judge who I would rather be with than against.

 He tends to bet in stakes I would say are large for the man-on-the-street but not massive for a pro-punter. He does OK and presumably he is happy with the size of his bets.

 He could I guess bet bigger. His losing runs, (everyone has them), be more stressful, he might find it changes his mind-set and stops him winning, he may struggle to get the bets on and it might take longer and be harder to administer.

 Once he has placed his bet on the unders/overs in football the market does not move that much (it is a very stable market). He could definitely have ten times more on. He could also sell or give away the information of what he is betting. One of those things has a risk and the other doesn't.

 If you could make money with no risk you might choose to do that.

 Hedge funds have been pretty successful for many people. The operators of those funds could keep the information to themselves. They do not. People don't seem to find that strange.

 Having said all of that. I'm not certain yet how we plan to monetise our ideas. Selling tips is a possibilty but it isn't the only one.