French problems

[cambridgealex]

French Poker Series 1k Grand Final in Deauville. Villain is notgood, but also not really splashy or crazy, just bad.

400/800/100ante

I open utg to 1700. Really splashy peely guy calls in MP. Villain 3bets the big blind to 4800. I ask him how much he's playing, he says in french "about 60". I can't really tell because of these stupid 10k chips that are really similar to the 5k chips. Anyway, so going by this I call. Definitely an argument for folding pre, because I thought he most likely had a really good hand based on his sizing and position. Can't rule out some weird frenchy bluff though at this stage.

As played though, the other guy calls behind and we go three ways

The pot is about 15.5k

He super confidently bets out 12.5k. I now notice that he only has about 35k behind. I'm now 95% sure he has QQ+, TT and JJ possible but discounting these quite a bit.

I think there's arguments for FOLD, CALL OR SHOVE.

Don't think he's ever folding to a shove. I don't think he's ever checking a brick turn so I never see a river for free. If I get there straight away he pretty much always goes broke however.

What would you do and why?

[paulhouk03]

shove because i like flush draws alot

[booder]

shove because i like flush draws alot

+1

[Eso Kral]

How many chips do you have Alex?

[cambridgealex]

How many chips do you have Alex?

I have about 65k, he has ~45-50ish total including his cbet

[titaniumbean]

fold pre, want to fold now so this sucks.

are we going to hit? if not best to fold

[Eso Kral]

How many chips do you have Alex?

I have about 65k, he has ~45-50ish total including his cbet

Although I will probs get flamed and it's maybe tez in many tournies is there an argument for just flatting here and if we brick the turn and your read is right you can fold ott and still have 60bbs to punish those Frenchies?

[chelseaboy]

I think I would jam it in his eye and then start shouting for a club or a K Ballllll when he turns over QQ

[jgcblack]

It seems like an easy fold pre and post tbh...
no?

[X] he's not bluffing pre
[X] we're dominated by his range
[ ] just going to flick it in with a fd

[rfgqqabc]

  doesnt brick enough to fold. Gl bro i guess. Pre isnt my preference but i wont say never.

[corkeye]

Very difficult to fold now you are about 35% v is range and to fold flop now seems pointless if you are flatting a 3bet pre and flopping so well.

As played I jam. But I'd probably open then fold pre to his 3b especially with your read.

[iangascoigne]

For me part of the decision would be based on your read of his propensity to fold to a  shove because in a way that changes the odds. You suggest that you don't think he will fold ( that has been my experience of the comp ) . So it becomes a coin flip and do you want to busto on a coin flip ? Fold and wait for a better spot. Probably should have folded pre ? However surely it's a dream flop for a jam ? See why you have posted the hand.
            All down to your read.

[edgascoigne]

J'ai quatre-vingt-dix-neuf problèmes mais un tir a flush n'en est pas un.

[MC]

Def fold pre

If we assume he's never folding it's sort of a 65k pot, 50k to call. So against his range based on your read shoving seems bad.

You could say it's 12.5k to win 65k on the flop so 5:1. This is about how often we ping a club turn. Sometimes he has the Ax though, and I guess sometimes we ping a K or Q, the Q especially leaves us in a screwy turn spot. Also we still have MP guy to think about.

So I think sigh fold, but this is all based on your read of course.

I hope my numbers are right, I did only just wake up and am writing on my iPhone

[George2Loose]

Noticing now that he has 35k is a poor excuse surely? Why not just say u wanted to see the flop because when in France.....

Don't see how u can fold now.