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Poker Hand Analysis
Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
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Topic: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London (Read 27941 times)
pleno1
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #15 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:40:36 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 06:24:56 PM
Quote from: pleno1 on March 03, 2013, 06:10:23 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 12:46:37 PM
Quote from: Dry em on March 03, 2013, 12:43:24 PM
Once he makes it 10,100, if you call there is what 21k in there? With aces I guess you can call but with Kings I'm either clicking back or shoving. Probably shoving - worst case he folds and you pick it all up without risk?
If he'd made it 14k or so that was the plan.
But his five bet is so small, it just screamed of aces
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 05:12:05 PM
Why would I expect him to 5bet bigger?
confused, wha5 was your initial plan when you slid out the 4b?
To 6 bet jam if he made it 13-14k.
but you know he isn't terrible right? he'd never ever make it 14k it would be truly terrible.
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GreekStein
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #16 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:47:29 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 06:36:37 PM
I'm not justifying my play at all.
I know I played it like a wanker.
Just explaining why I'm a wanker ITT.
<3
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #17 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:47:52 PM »
Feel you put yourself on the back foot throughout the hand. Once the idea villain has AA is in your head the hand is already lost imo. Think openly fast/loose villain vs KK is a good coup for us whatever sizing he chucks out.
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The Camel
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #18 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:52:32 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on March 03, 2013, 06:40:36 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 06:24:56 PM
Quote from: pleno1 on March 03, 2013, 06:10:23 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 12:46:37 PM
Quote from: Dry em on March 03, 2013, 12:43:24 PM
Once he makes it 10,100, if you call there is what 21k in there? With aces I guess you can call but with Kings I'm either clicking back or shoving. Probably shoving - worst case he folds and you pick it all up without risk?
If he'd made it 14k or so that was the plan.
But his five bet is so small, it just screamed of aces
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 05:12:05 PM
Why would I expect him to 5bet bigger?
confused, wha5 was your initial plan when you slid out the 4b?
To 6 bet jam if he made it 13-14k.
but you know he isn't terrible right? he'd never ever make it 14k it would be truly terrible.
So in this sort of spot a 5 bet of approx 15% is standard, but a 5 bet of 25% of the pot is "truly terrible"?
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #19 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:55:48 PM »
Prob is terrible because he only needs to go 10.1k to scream of aces
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The Camel
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #20 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:56:55 PM »
Sam's 3 bet was approx pot sized.
His five bet was approx 15% of the size of the pot.
Is there no incongruity here?
«
Last Edit: March 03, 2013, 06:58:56 PM by The Camel
»
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The Camel
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #21 on:
March 03, 2013, 06:57:26 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 03, 2013, 06:55:48 PM
Prob is terrible because he only needs to go 10.1k to scream of aces
But does he know I am a wanker when he makes this bet?
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redarmi
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #22 on:
March 03, 2013, 07:12:56 PM »
If you think your 4 bet doesn't look that strong then surely he is 5 betting wider and he is good enough to use his betsizing to make himself look stronger. I think you are overthinking it a bit. Pretty obviously a fold now though.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #23 on:
March 03, 2013, 09:42:24 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 06:57:26 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 03, 2013, 06:55:48 PM
Prob is terrible because he only needs to go 10.1k to scream of aces
But does he know I am a wanker when he makes this bet?
Personally I wouldn't take my thinking to that level of speculation. Information you know for sure is the guy has made noises about gambling his stack and is playing LAG. Once that dynamic is in the hand what he thinks you think about his image is too complicated. I would try and get it in pre and would bet turn. If villain was an old woman who hadn't raised the whole night I might think only AA.
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Rupert
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #24 on:
March 04, 2013, 03:27:32 AM »
I think you played it well... Sam is gonna be pretty strong here IMO and if he ever is bluffing (which I doubt) then you keep those hands in by just peeling. I think 6 betting instead of jamming is pretty silly, just trying to overrep our hand, lol. Postflop we have a lot of excuses to not put any more chips in now, my only worry is if he would vbet QQ on the river or not but most of the time he's just got something really strong vs you I think.
Also, more preflop
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cambridgealex
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #25 on:
March 04, 2013, 04:37:06 AM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 06:56:55 PM
Sam's 3 bet was approx pot sized.
His five bet was approx 15% of the size of the pot.
Is there no incongruity here?
I think the point isn't the size of the pot, it's the % of his stack he's committing. If he raises to say 40% of his stack, or any amount that commits him to the pot (should you shove), then he has a hand that he's going with, whereas if he raises to 20-30% of his stack, he isn't committed and can still fold, thus he can have a bluffing range.
So I'd never expect a good player like Sam to ever reraise to this amount you expected him to. He'll click it to 30/35% of his stack, or he'll jam, or he'll fold.
I like the way you played it actually. I don't think you played it like a wanker
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Boba Fett
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #26 on:
March 04, 2013, 06:42:13 AM »
I dont like peeling the 3b fwiw as you have 4 or 5 people with position against you that might also flick it in once you call.
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dreenie
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #27 on:
March 04, 2013, 10:41:35 AM »
For me, if I have KK, vs Sammmmmy G, - because he is such a high level thinker and imo on a different level to 90% of the players in the uk, I would just jam and try and take it down there and then, or hold vs weaker hands etc.
When u peel, I think you put yourself in a coffin too much of the time vs this particular player, and you never really know where u are unless u flop a King.
If he has Aces then gl, u can never pass this hand pre, so I'm looking to get all my chips in pre flop vs such a class player, to take all these later complications away on each street.
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dreenie
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #28 on:
March 04, 2013, 10:44:57 AM »
Sry about how I worded it, I know what I'm trying to say, but never seems to come across clearly on the Internet.
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jackinbeat
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Re: Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London
«
Reply #29 on:
March 04, 2013, 10:51:43 AM »
Quote from: Dry em on March 03, 2013, 12:50:29 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 03, 2013, 12:46:37 PM
Quote from: Dry em on March 03, 2013, 12:43:24 PM
Once he makes it 10,100, if you call there is what 21k in there? With aces I guess you can call but with Kings I'm either clicking back or shoving. Probably shoving - worst case he folds and you pick it all up without risk?
If he'd made it 14k or so that was the plan.
But his five bet is so small, it just screamed of aces reopening the betting so I could 6 bet.
But obviously that's what it was designed to make me think.
Think the last line is key - if he or any player with say 50% Grafton poker like genes has Aces I'm going broke here
this with a ATYP
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