Racing Thread

[horseplayer]

7/2 now.... Would not touch it at that price when i started typing it was generally 10's

[simonnatur]

Thanks for the concern Tikay, just a long weekend away. Back to business now, I'm going to use a 1-5 point scale going forward:

2.30 Haydock     Looking for a horse that stays further ideally, stats strongly suggest a high draw is favoured, Hostile Fire 6/1 3pts e/w is in good form and seems to fit the bill perfectly to me. will also bet No Poppy 8/1 1pt e/w   and a very speculative 0.5pt e/w Berlusca 16/1 who ran a decent last race at York, but guessing whether he'll perform on this surface. Obviously hoping 12 line up, maybe worth holding off till lunchtime to be reasonably sure.

High numbers defo not favoured over round 1m at Haddock sir. Not sure they'll be going much pace in here and We'll Shake Hands might get an easy lead, but wouldn't put you off any of those three.

I took the following from drawbias.com "A very surprising result here. It seems to be a big advantage to be drawn high, and over a quarter of the races have been won by the horse drawn widest of all. This is the complete opposite to the 7 furlong analysis. Very strange?"

1234 result of this race for last 2 yrs in stall order (both winners 9-1 shots):

2014   9,8,11,7    12 ran
2013   9,2,3,11    12 ran

[BigAdz]

Sure to get the usual panning for saying this but...

I wonder if the level of info out there over the years, such as Chompys book, has actually helped to shift some of the outcomes. Bare with me here.

Equipped with all this draw knowledge, If the jockeys on the outside poorly drawn horses know they have to rush horses up to get the best position from the "wrong side", whilst those on the "good side" are sitting happy and complacent knowing they have the "good side", it can mean they basically get outridden and lose that rail/track bias.

I suspect in the years previous to all this info, there was a certain acceptance that if you were draw wide at Haydock you had no chance, for instance, and just used to amble to the inside behind the better drawn horses. Now, they formulate strategies a bit better and use up some early pace and catch the insider horses napping. Won't always happen, and some biases, like Chester and Beverley will always be much harder to overcome, of course.

Just a thought.

[typhoon13]

Sure to get the usual panning for saying this but...

I wonder if the level of info out there over the years, such as Chompys book, has actually helped to shift some of the outcomes. Bare with me here.

Equipped with all this draw knowledge, If the jockeys on the outside poorly drawn horses know they have to rush horses up to get the best position from the "wrong side", whilst those on the "good side" are sitting happy and complacent knowing they have the "good side", it can mean they basically get outridden and lose that rail/track bias.

I suspect in the years previous to all this info, there was a certain acceptance that if you were draw wide at Haydock you had no chance, for instance, and just used to amble to the inside behind the better drawn horses. Now, they formulate strategies a bit better and use up some early pace and catch the insider horses napping. Won't always happen, and some biases, like Chester and Beverley will always be much harder to overcome, of course.

Just a thought.

Good post Adz

Also the trainers will have a large input when briefing the jockey especially if another race is its goal

[doubleup]

I think the combo of race tactics plus draw leads to loads of variance.  A pace horse drawn wide is obv a disadvantage but a hold up horse drawn wide can be settled behind easily.  

Also on "This is the complete opposite to the 7 furlong analysis."  - the proximity to the first bend of the 7f start and the pace of the horses compared to the 8f could easily translate into the difference.  Going wide round a bend is def a disadvantage but the 8f start gives enough time to settle into position before the bend.

[horseplayer]

Good posts have just dug up the stats for 7 furlongs only at Haydock from an A/E point of view (actual over expected)

Low 0.96
Mid 0.61
High 1.01

Anything above 0.9 is considered a fair marker anything nearing 1.00 or higher is performing to or above market expectation.



Note i have taken out maiden races as i dont class them as competitive enough to use data from and thats the last six years

[horseplayer]

Chester is interesting

Doubt there is anyone who even has half an interest in racing isnt aware of the low draw bias there, last ten years stats

Low 1.05
Mid 0.80
High 0.62

Thats from 5 furlongs to 7 furlongs

[doubleup]

This is last ten years handicaps 10 or more runners

8f

Draw Range   Wins   Runs   Win%   Plc%   I.V.   A/E   £1 Win   ROI%
Low           31   425   7.3%   24.7%   0.89   0.71   £-195.59   -46.0%
Middle   42   454   9.3%   25.1%   1.13   0.91   £-75.78   -16.7%
High           41   510   8.0%   26.5%   0.98   0.90   £-26.50   -5.2%

7f

Draw Range   Wins   Runs   Win%   Plc%   I.V.   A/E   £1 Win   ROI%
Low           9   89   10.1%30.3%   1.16   0.84   £7.75    8.7%
Middle   6   94   6.4%   22.3%   0.74   0.62   £-58.50   -62.2%
High           10   105   9.5%   25.7%   1.10   1.08   £-20.62   -19.6%

Seems to be a lot less races over 7 so not sure if its reasonable to compare.

[horseplayer]

No not so many over 7 when i double checked not enough to form a view imo

all interesting stuff though

[BigAdz]

Im not a great stat analyst but doesn't look enough in those Haydock stats to put me off one in any part of the draw, unless I'm reading it wrong?

[typhoon13]

Just had a few quid ew Cape of Hope 10/1 next at Haydock and probably more HOPE than judgement

PS This is just my choice without any inside knowledge

[Marky147]

Im not a great stat analyst but doesn't look enough in those Haydock stats to put me off one in any part of the draw, unless I'm reading it wrong?

Don't get drawn in the middle?

[doubleup]

Def Adz - I think it is race specific - I wouldn't want to back a pace horse wide if there was pace drawn low, as the horse is going to use to much.  

Also isn't Haydock a good course for hold up horses anyway, given the long straight?

[typhoon13]

Just had a few quid ew Cape of Hope 10/1 next at Haydock and probably more HOPE than judgement

PS This is just my choice without any inside knowledge

Oh dear

[BigAdz]

Im not a great stat analyst but doesn't look enough in those Haydock stats to put me off one in any part of the draw, unless I'm reading it wrong?

Don't get drawn in the middle?

Maybe you should follow me in on my tiny bet on the well handicapped Smarty Socks, Mr Smarty Pants..