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Racing Thread
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Topic: Racing Thread (Read 939113 times)
horseplayer
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #30 on:
May 21, 2013, 06:06:06 PM »
a non runner a dead heat for third and a poor run today
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horseplayer
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #31 on:
May 22, 2013, 01:39:30 PM »
Tuesday 22nd May
3.00 Lingfield 2pts win HURAKAN 11/4 general
The favourite is very vulnerable here i think. Its form on turf is pretty awful as is indicative with its pedigree which suggests an all weather horse or soft ground on the turf. I just cant see it liking a firmish surface at lingfield.
Hurakan is by far the most solid of its rivals, down in grade conditions fine and usually starts to peak on 3rd comeback run onwards (which is today)
Double Cee is way out of form, Steely is capable but not running well and Foxhaven is a good old stick but 70 on the turf is a tough mark.
3.30 Lingfield BRAMSHILL LASS 6/1 general 1pt win
not the most genuine of animals but a few positives today.
gets a 3lb pull for being narrowly beaten by the likely favourite kayef at goodwood last time. That is the danger but this is nearly double the price. The fact the selection seems better in blinkers and they are back on today is another small positive.
4.20 Southwell Caledonia Prince 10/1 general 1pt win
a cracking race with a field of proven southwell lovers. Surprised this horse is 10-1 as simple as that is about 7-1 in my tissue and has a better chance than 10-1 in this.
«
Last Edit: May 22, 2013, 01:41:21 PM by horseplayer
»
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Tal
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #32 on:
May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM »
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
MajorMajor
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #33 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:05:24 PM »
O
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horseplayer
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #34 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:07:46 PM »
Quote from: Tal on May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.
Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
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Tal
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #35 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:11:38 PM »
Thanks, chaps.
In unrelated news...would anyone like to buy a lucky 15?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
bookiebasher
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #36 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:24:42 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on May 22, 2013, 02:07:46 PM
Quote from: Tal on May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.
Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that
backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
[/b]
There was an article in the Racing Post a few months back on the outsider of three and the figures suggested you would make a profit , not much , but a profit .
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/It's+official%3A+you+can+make+money+backing+the+outsider+of+three%3B...-a0319173442
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horseplayer
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #37 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:32:08 PM »
Quote from: bookiebasher on May 22, 2013, 02:24:42 PM
Quote from: horseplayer on May 22, 2013, 02:07:46 PM
Quote from: Tal on May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.
Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that
backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
[/b]
There was an article in the Racing Post a few months back on the outsider of three and the figures suggested you would make a profit , not much , but a profit .
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/It's+official%3A+you+can+make+money+backing+the+outsider+of+three%3B...-a0319173442
nice link thanks
he seems a bit vague though in that saying his results only include the times there is a "clear outsider"
will check my stats later and see what i get as that just does not seem correct to me
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tikay
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #38 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:39:37 PM »
Quote from: bookiebasher on May 22, 2013, 02:24:42 PM
Quote from: horseplayer on May 22, 2013, 02:07:46 PM
Quote from: Tal on May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.
Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that
backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
[/b]
There was an article in the Racing Post a few months back on the outsider of three and the figures suggested you would make a profit , not much , but a profit .
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/It's+official%3A+you+can+make+money+backing+the+outsider+of+three%3B...-a0319173442
Ignore that Jim, it was probably wroted by Chompy.
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bookiebasher
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #39 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:41:25 PM »
Yeah I was surprised by it as well.
Presume he means he didnt include races where one was a clear fav and the other
two were joint second favs.
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Chompy
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #40 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:41:53 PM »
Not me, I much prefer the outsider of four, especially when it's ridden by the pin-up girl. Ho ho.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
horseplayer
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #41 on:
May 22, 2013, 02:53:19 PM »
Quote from: Tal on May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
right tal rather than me guessing here are some stats on the above
best i can do is days when he has one ride, this may mean on days where he's had two they've been at different meetings but won't be many cases of this. these are also going to be last 5 years for both, so as to avoid times when they weren't established/apprentices:
scudamore: 39/308, -122 to SP
hutchinson: 27/286, -82 to SP
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horseplayer
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #42 on:
May 22, 2013, 03:31:52 PM »
well done tal!
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BigAdz
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #43 on:
May 22, 2013, 03:32:59 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on May 22, 2013, 02:53:19 PM
Quote from: Tal on May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?
Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
right tal rather than me guessing here are some stats on the above
best i can do is days when he has one ride, this may mean on days where he's had two they've been at different meetings but won't be many cases of this. these are also going to be last 5 years for both, so as to avoid times when they weren't established/apprentices:
scudamore: 39/308, -122 to SP
hutchinson: 27/286, -82 to SP
I see no mitigating circs for Mr Scudamore, but as Chairman of the Wayneo fan club, during this time he has been second string for Alan King for the majority of the time, so his figures will be schewed by having to travel all over the place for singles rides that probably have next to no chance.
If he gets the jig at Kings as stable jock, I expect these figures would look a lot different in the next 5 years.
Would you agree Horsey?
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Tal
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Re: Racing Thread
«
Reply #44 on:
May 22, 2013, 03:35:42 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on May 22, 2013, 03:31:52 PM
well done tal!
Bad logic. Great result.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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