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Author Topic: Racing Thread  (Read 493614 times)
horseplayer
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« Reply #30 on: May 21, 2013, 06:06:06 PM »

a non runner a dead heat for third and a poor run today

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horseplayer
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« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2013, 01:39:30 PM »

Tuesday 22nd May

3.00 Lingfield 2pts win HURAKAN 11/4 general

The favourite is very vulnerable here i think. Its form on turf is pretty awful as is indicative with its pedigree which suggests an all weather horse or soft ground on the turf. I just cant see it liking a firmish surface at lingfield.

Hurakan is by far the most solid of its rivals, down in grade conditions fine and usually starts to peak on 3rd comeback run onwards (which is today)

Double Cee is way out of form, Steely is capable but not running well and Foxhaven is a good old stick but 70 on the turf is a tough mark.


3.30 Lingfield BRAMSHILL LASS 6/1 general 1pt win

not the most genuine of animals but a few positives today.

gets a 3lb pull for being narrowly beaten by the likely favourite kayef at goodwood last time. That is the danger but this is nearly double the price. The fact the selection seems better in blinkers and they are back on today is another small positive.


4.20 Southwell Caledonia Prince 10/1 general 1pt win

a cracking race with a field of proven southwell lovers. Surprised this horse is 10-1 as simple as that is about 7-1 in my tissue and has a better chance than 10-1 in this.

« Last Edit: May 22, 2013, 01:41:21 PM by horseplayer » Logged
Tal
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« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2013, 01:52:28 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.
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MajorMajor
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« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2013, 02:05:24 PM »

O
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horseplayer
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« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2013, 02:07:46 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.

I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.

Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
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Tal
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« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2013, 02:11:38 PM »

Thanks, chaps.

In unrelated news...would anyone like to buy a lucky 15?
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« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2013, 02:24:42 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.

I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.

Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
[/b]

There was an article in the Racing Post a few months back on the outsider of three and the figures suggested you would make a profit , not much , but a profit .

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/It's+official%3A+you+can+make+money+backing+the+outsider+of+three%3B...-a0319173442
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horseplayer
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« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2013, 02:32:08 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.

I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.

Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
[/b]

There was an article in the Racing Post a few months back on the outsider of three and the figures suggested you would make a profit , not much , but a profit .

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/It's+official%3A+you+can+make+money+backing+the+outsider+of+three%3B...-a0319173442

nice link thanks

he seems a bit vague though in that saying his results only include the times there is a "clear outsider"

will check my stats later and see what i get as that just does not seem correct to me
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« Reply #38 on: May 22, 2013, 02:39:37 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.

I think in general it is one of those things in racing that when somebody with one ride wins it is highlighted and when they do not it is not mentioned.

Much like the "outsider of 3 always wins" that berks like Thommo chuckle when the outsider does win failing to mention or realise that backing the outsider of 3 blind will mean you do your money more than pretty much any other strategy.
[/b]

There was an article in the Racing Post a few months back on the outsider of three and the figures suggested you would make a profit , not much , but a profit .

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/It's+official%3A+you+can+make+money+backing+the+outsider+of+three%3B...-a0319173442

Ignore that Jim, it was probably wroted by Chompy.
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« Reply #39 on: May 22, 2013, 02:41:25 PM »

Yeah I was surprised by it as well.

Presume he means he didnt include races where one was a clear fav and the other

two were joint second favs.
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« Reply #40 on: May 22, 2013, 02:41:53 PM »

Not me, I much prefer the outsider of four, especially when it's ridden by the pin-up girl. Ho ho.
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« Reply #41 on: May 22, 2013, 02:53:19 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.

right tal rather than me guessing here are some stats on the above

best i can do is days when he has one ride, this may mean on days where he's had two they've been at different meetings but won't be many cases of this.  these are also going to be last 5 years for both, so as to avoid times when they weren't established/apprentices:

scudamore: 39/308, -122 to SP
hutchinson: 27/286, -82 to SP
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horseplayer
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« Reply #42 on: May 22, 2013, 03:31:52 PM »

well done tal!
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« Reply #43 on: May 22, 2013, 03:32:59 PM »

What weight do you give to a situation where a jockey only has one runner on a card?

Hutchinson and Scudamore have one each at decent prices at Huntingdon today. Neither for their normal trainer. Appreciate they're not being sent to Ayr or something equally far away, but interested to hear your views on that general situation.

right tal rather than me guessing here are some stats on the above

best i can do is days when he has one ride, this may mean on days where he's had two they've been at different meetings but won't be many cases of this.  these are also going to be last 5 years for both, so as to avoid times when they weren't established/apprentices:

scudamore: 39/308, -122 to SP
hutchinson: 27/286, -82 to SP

I see no mitigating circs for Mr Scudamore, but as Chairman of the Wayneo fan club, during this time he has been second string for Alan King for the majority of the time, so his figures will be schewed by having to travel all over the place for singles rides that probably have next to no chance.
If he gets the jig at Kings as stable jock, I expect these figures would look a lot different in the next 5 years.

Would you agree Horsey?
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Tal
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« Reply #44 on: May 22, 2013, 03:35:42 PM »

well done tal!

Bad logic. Great result.

Cheesy
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