blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
March 29, 2024, 01:42:44 PM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2272484 Posts in 66752 Topics by 16945 Members
Latest Member: Zula
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
| | |-+  Racing Thread
0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 92 93 94 95 [96] 97 98 99 100 ... 400 Go Down Print
Author Topic: Racing Thread  (Read 1016401 times)
BorntoBubble
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 5893



View Profile
« Reply #1425 on: August 01, 2014, 09:35:08 AM »

selections with prices would help. Something you would back at 10/1 would probably not be a back at 5/1 for example.

Cheers for the write up
Logged

"ace high"

http://plascolwyn.co.uk/ - 9 Bed Self Catering Holiday let in Snowdonia, North Wales Pm for more details.

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/CalMorgan7
Omm
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3237



View Profile
« Reply #1426 on: August 01, 2014, 10:35:01 AM »

I had another pretty decent day today.  I find myself in between a rock and a hard place as I have bought the BE package but I also like to back my own stuff.  and  do a right up of my selections before for talking over with mates.  So as not to make it all sound like aftertiming I'll stick my bets for tomorrow up, these are my first picks I will then have a look at the betting in the morning and read through Neil's choices before making final selections. 

Race 1 - Quest for Peace - small win. Looked better at 7/1 but has gone.

Race 2 - Want to be yours/Rapprochment both e/w (preference for first named)

Race 3 - Bronze Angel/Our Channel (both e/w preference for the first named price seems to have gone now on second named.

Race 4 - Take Cover/Demora/Hay Chewed (all e/w in preference as named)

Race 5 - Markaz e/w

Race 6 - Muteela (NAP) If pushed for an e/w Manderlay

Race 7 - Festival Thearter/Cape Caster both win only.

Certainly welcome any comments on my selections. 

Well done Kmac, great to see someone learning the game and not afraid to show it, would be great to see your thought process for the selections ( I'm presuming you do something to narrow them down) refreshing aspect to the thread if you can keep it up. No doubt we can all learn abit along with you as well. Great Stuff.
Logged
doubleup
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 7049


View Profile
« Reply #1427 on: August 01, 2014, 10:55:19 AM »


George Guru in the 3.05 and Indignant in the 4.50  EW double and singles.
Logged
Kmac84
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2128


View Profile
« Reply #1428 on: August 01, 2014, 12:19:23 PM »

I had another pretty decent day today.  I find myself in between a rock and a hard place as I have bought the BE package but I also like to back my own stuff.  and  do a right up of my selections before for talking over with mates.  So as not to make it all sound like aftertiming I'll stick my bets for tomorrow up, these are my first picks I will then have a look at the betting in the morning and read through Neil's choices before making final selections. 

Race 1 - Quest for Peace - small win. Looked better at 7/1 but has gone.

Race 2 - Want to be yours/Rapprochment both e/w (preference for first named)

Race 3 - Bronze Angel/Our Channel (both e/w preference for the first named price seems to have gone now on second named.

Race 4 - Take Cover/Demora/Hay Chewed (all e/w in preference as named)

Race 5 - Markaz e/w

Race 6 - Muteela (NAP) If pushed for an e/w Manderlay

Race 7 - Festival Thearter/Cape Caster both win only.

Certainly welcome any comments on my selections. 

Well done Kmac, great to see someone learning the game and not afraid to show it, would be great to see your thought process for the selections ( I'm presuming you do something to narrow them down) refreshing aspect to the thread if you can keep it up. No doubt we can all learn abit along with you as well. Great Stuff.

Sure thing, the thing I think I have picked up most from Neils writings on here and on the subscribed service is its not always about finding the winner of the race because sometimes we get better value in the place with something that is pretty solid that also has a high% chance of winning.    I have also found myself ignoring the market to start with, previously I'd have looked at the market and already drawn pretty strong conclusions before actually thinking about the race as a whole.  Also think its an important factor to translate form from other courses to the course that we are backing.  Before I'd maybe do this with Brighton but having read on here from guys like RedArmi that there are similar courses were particular horses do better at similar type courses I have tried to bear that in mind. 

Onto the selections then, for Race 1 I just thought the fav was short enough and wasn't cnvinced that the price we were getting represented any significant value.  We all know Godolphin can ready one but I think its a huge ask to have Enke anywhere near his best after nearly 2 years off.  I thought Battle of Marengo woluldn't be too keen on the ground.  Cafe Society is back up in trip after finishing well at Ascot previously over 10f, and although a progressive type I wasn't sure it was upto the class of winning a race of this type.  That left me with Songcraft, Aussie Reigns and Quest for Peace.  Aussie Reigns looks like a fun horse that the connections will get good value from in decent handicaps not sure its upto winning a group 3.  We know Songcraft gos well fresh but it doesn't have any course and distance form which Quest for Peace has a previous winner of this race.  I was really between the 2, but in the end decided as the prices were pretty similar that the C&D win, return from down under and the fact Cumani was unlikely to fire this into a group 3 without thinking t had much of a chance convinced me to have a smallish bet on that, I also really like Andrea Atzeni, he has a touch of class and for my money he has a built in clock that sees him run fractions well and again we know the horse likes to fron run and there aren't many coming from off the pace this week.  Horse has also won over a slightly longer trip so I don't see it tiring if its close to full fitness.

In race 2 - I was really looking for something to be against the fav with again I just thought it was short enough and although clearly a high class animal I thought I'd try and get one that would improve for previous runs.  There wasn't great e/w value to be had but prior to the non runners I thought my 2 were reasonably priced and worth a few pounds with the revised terms I am thinking of changing course and just backing Raprochment win only.  This horse really could be anything it destroyed not too bad a field on its only start and has been drastically upped in class, my instincts tell me the stable like this one. 

Race 3 - bit of a minefield I initially thought Bronze Angel ran a reasonable race on Saturday but never really got the run of the race and I think the ground was against him somewhat, for my money this is a horse that prefers good fast ground.  The draw looks  bad at first but as a hold up performer it might allow Martin Dwyer an opportunity to ease him into the race.  I considered Fort Bastion as Neil stuck that up on Saturday but again the clerk of the course kind of scuppered his plans by watering.  I was really keen on Our Chanel last night when I saw the price was 25/1 I deposited funds to back this on a new site I don't have an account with only for the price to no longer be available.  Our Chanle has been tried at a decent level and I think it will go on improving and Haggas has his horses in great nick at the mo.   There were doubts over quite a few of these and it really is a tough handicap to crack.  I think with the 2 non runners this morning andpotential for a few more to come out I will wait to nearer race time before actually betting.  I was looking forward to seeing what Neil selected in this race as he seems to have an angle in these big handicaps. 

Race 4 - I think there is definitely a draw bias over the sprint trips this week and nothing drawn outside of box 5 has won any of the sprints.  So I was looking for horses that were drawn low and that would be up with the pace.  When i looked at the race last night Sky were paying 4 places at 1/5 the odds and the prices weren't massively out from the other books that were going 1/5 for first 3 and the few that were going 1/4 for the first 3. 

Race 5 -  Is the sort of race that makes me want to scratch my own eyes out. A nursery is basically a handicap for 2 year olds. Some of these have solid form to go on some don't and could be either really good or really bad. Right now I don't feel like this is a race I want to bet, but if the price was right and the terms were good I'd be on Markaz looked decent when winning at Ascot, cost loads of monet £200,000 and comes from a stable we know like to win here. Infact I am doing a good job of talking myself into that. (this is what I wrote last night, and I ended up backing it at 9/1) 

Race 6 - I really couldn't see past the front 2 in the betting and the fav just looks good to me can do it from out in front, its from a stable that love winners here and has been banging them in all week it looked really impressive when winning at Ascot.  I just couldn't find a negative. 

Race 7 - The closing race of the day is another tough handicap on paper but the e/w terms arent great so I'd probably side with 2 lively ones win only. The two I like are Festival Thearte and Cape Caster.  Festival Theartre hasn't progressed as expected this year but its been given a few months off the course and it might just be the time of year we get to see the best of it and Cape Caster is from a stable/jockey combo I really like to be onside with. 
Logged
BigAdz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 8152



View Profile
« Reply #1429 on: August 01, 2014, 03:37:37 PM »

Gonna have a little dabble on Fort Bastion ew 20-1 in the 3.40

Ran a decent race behind Heavy Metal last time and has a few pound pull for a few lengths etc. James Sullivan back on board, and looked like being back over a mile should help based on the way he finished last week, also going across the track and losing a fair amount of ground.

Previously won over a mile off 106, so plenty in hand. Decent draw tomorrow and acts on most ground.

Had a saver earlier on old friend Red Avenger, but the 20s long gone now sadly. GL

Easy game if you have more than 1. Wink
Logged

Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
doubleup
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 7049


View Profile
« Reply #1430 on: August 01, 2014, 03:38:50 PM »


Well done Adz!
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 16570


View Profile
« Reply #1431 on: August 01, 2014, 04:19:16 PM »


Well done Adz!

Completely missed this, but good shout
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
horseplayer
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 10601



View Profile
« Reply #1432 on: August 01, 2014, 06:06:04 PM »

Nice one adz backing an ed dunlop winner means you must be in form

Backed an old friend SIR MAXIMILLIAN tomorrow in the stewards at 25's

Backed him on first start for Pitt at Chester, since won cosily in Ireland and although this is another massive step up in class looks a bit disrespected for Pitt
Logged
Kmac84
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2128


View Profile
« Reply #1433 on: August 01, 2014, 06:14:43 PM »

Another decent day all round. 

I managed 2 wins of my own and I had Neils in the last with one of mine.  In the first race I actually swerved my pick and ended up backing one of Neils place only once the money started to come for the jolly. 
Logged
BigAdz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 8152



View Profile
« Reply #1434 on: August 01, 2014, 09:19:10 PM »

Nice one adz backing an ed dunlop winner means you must be in form

Backed an old friend SIR MAXIMILLIAN tomorrow in the stewards at 25's

Backed him on first start for Pitt at Chester, since won cosily in Ireland and although this is another massive step up in class looks a bit disrespected for Pitt


Have had a couple of bob on yours, but watching reruns of last year I have added Ninjago to Muthmir that I backed earlier in the week. He came from miles back and has run a couple of interesting trials for this. Muthmir just looked too big earlier in the week at to go unbacked. GL
Logged

Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
Omm
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3237



View Profile
« Reply #1435 on: August 01, 2014, 09:25:19 PM »

Another decent day all round. 

I managed 2 wins of my own and I had Neils in the last with one of mine.  In the first race I actually swerved my pick and ended up backing one of Neils place only once the money started to come for the jolly. 

Haven't got to watch any of the racing today, was you pleased with your write up and opinion compared to how the racing actually went, anything your gonna change for tomorrow?
Logged
Omm
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3237



View Profile
« Reply #1436 on: August 01, 2014, 09:26:35 PM »

Nice one adz backing an ed dunlop winner means you must be in form

Backed an old friend SIR MAXIMILLIAN tomorrow in the stewards at 25's

Backed him on first start for Pitt at Chester, since won cosily in Ireland and although this is another massive step up in class looks a bit disrespected for Pitt


Have had a couple of bob on yours, but watching reruns of last year I have added Ninjago to Muthmir that I backed earlier in the week. He came from miles back and has run a couple of interesting trials for this. Muthmir just looked too big earlier in the week at to go unbacked. GL

Barnet Fair running tmrw Adz, you put him up earlier in the week, any good tmrw?
Logged
Marky147
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 22796



View Profile
« Reply #1437 on: August 01, 2014, 09:36:55 PM »

Nice one adz backing an ed dunlop winner means you must be in form

Backed an old friend SIR MAXIMILLIAN tomorrow in the stewards at 25's

Backed him on first start for Pitt at Chester, since won cosily in Ireland and although this is another massive step up in class looks a bit disrespected for Pitt


Have had a couple of bob on yours, but watching reruns of last year I have added Ninjago to Muthmir that I backed earlier in the week. He came from miles back and has run a couple of interesting trials for this. Muthmir just looked too big earlier in the week at to go unbacked. GL

Barnet Fair running tmrw Adz, you put him up earlier in the week, any good tmrw?

Haha, we've both got anti-tilt money on him Smiley
Logged

BigAdz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 8152



View Profile
« Reply #1438 on: August 01, 2014, 09:52:30 PM »

I didn't think he was overly effective over 6f but he has won over it.

He was actually in the Stewards last year and ran ok only beaten 5 lengths. If it stays firm I think 14s is fair value especially with 5 places. This field is far weaker than last years SC and he is certainly in form, a big plus. It could also be argued he has been finishing his races like he needs a bit further now.

I think I'm trying to convince myself to get stuck in ;0)
Logged

Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
Omm
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3237



View Profile
« Reply #1439 on: August 01, 2014, 10:37:46 PM »

I didn't think he was overly effective over 6f but he has won over it.

He was actually in the Stewards last year and ran ok only beaten 5 lengths. If it stays firm I think 14s is fair value especially with 5 places. This field is far weaker than last years SC and he is certainly in form, a big plus. It could also be argued he has been finishing his races like he needs a bit further now.

I think I'm trying to convince myself to get stuck in ;0)

It's one of those that u tip up and it wins later in the week, can't have nothing on it at 14's I'd be gutted if it won and didn't have a bean. Gl.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 92 93 94 95 [96] 97 98 99 100 ... 400 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.299 seconds with 21 queries.