Racing Thread

[Omm]

Ommy,

I just happened upon a Post from several days back when you were unwell & hospitalised.

I know you have had health issues for a while, as have several others here, but you guys seem to cope with it well.

Hope you are on the mend now.

Thanks Tikay, fairly used to it now, am convalescing in Suffolk for a few weeks, in laws have a lovely holiday home on a park with fishing lakes and lots of tranquility, Southwold not far away and the weather is great, just the ticket when I hit tough times, internet to a minimum and plenty of fresh air in the lungs. Although the kids are young they understand my difficulties and they give me the space I need. Thanks for enquiring, your a kind soul.

[Omm]

Afternoon

Quite keen on Blue Surf in the first at Goodwood tomorrow 1.55.

Was joint fav for the race last year and ran ok, but never really in the hunt. He has run some nice races this year without looking too dangerous and i suspect this has been his target all year, as tomorrow they bring out the first time cheekpieces. It seems ok on all sorts of ground

Has some reasonable back form at Goodwood and as its the Harwood local course, they will be doubly keen to get a winner.

Compared to the 13/2 it went off last year, I'm very happy with the 20-1 its priced up at right now. If it is fancied it could be quite well backed from that price. GL

Dont think the term "running good" will be seen anywhere in this thread. Pays 5 places. Naturally finish 6th. In Lennox Stakes, back Anjaal ew at 25s and finishes third, after 3 get taken out, beaten about half a length tops. Marv,

Proper heart in mouth moment on Anjaal, stuck a tenner on it just before off on bf, then realised I had laid it rather than backed it (bloody mobile phone screens too small), of course you can imagine what I was like when he started coming near the end, never wanted to win a tenner so much. Silver linings and all that.

[BigAdz]

Morning Mr Omm.

Glad to here you're feeling better.

I'm a bit meh about Roudee today and shall probably just wish him well, and watch. But yes, if he reproduces that old Chester form he should win.

I am very interested in the Listed race at 3.05.

Whilst he has a few pounds to make up I think this race could be set up for Body and Soul. Initially he looks to be drawn too wide in 8, but with NR that is actually stall 6. With pace coming from all angles, Ballista, Masamah, Ertijall, Intransigent and Coulsty all led, or are perenial front runners, and in effect could set this up for a closer.

Body and Soul led last time but that was by default as they went too slow early on and he pulled to hard and ran no race. His general profile is of an improver, and at 4 he still has plenty of time.

With a bit of cut in the ground I hope to see him tuck in and pounce late as the race falls apart. 7-1 e/w looks tasty.

[BigAdz]

Bah.

Winner rode the race I hoped B&S would, but to be fair got no gaps when travelling well.

Back to drawing board.

[horseplayer]

Lord of the Dance for me again tommorow in the 8.15 at Carlisle

Is 20/1 at present which is almost double the price ended up at in the hot ladies handicap at Ascot last time. Ok showed little again but the ground according to the met office will stay at least good which is fine

small each play, working on some interesting stats for the Carlisle ladies only card tommorow think there is an angle

[BigAdz]

Going to post a fancy each day for the next two weeks trying to find a decent ew bet of odds over 5-1. See if we can get more energy into the thread.

At Carlisle tonite I like the eyecatching combo of Klynch and Serena Brotherton in the 7.15.

A winner at Course and the Distance, Klynch is slowly running itself into form and now well below its last winning mark. I hope tonite the superiority of Brotherton in the saddle with be enough to coax it home, with it being effective on ground as it is predicted later.

On a 1-10 scale I will have 2pts ew at the general 8-1

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/15:45/winner

Backed EQUITABLE here at 10/1 small win bet. Good debut win on all weather, slight let down in 3 runs since but excuses especially last time on soft ground at Haddock over to far. Good race though plenty of unexposed types

[horseplayer]

Right so today i have


Spokesperson, Remix (both each way)
Lord of the Dance
Equitable

A lot for me for a Monday! Be happy if one wins

gd lk all

[simonnatur]

Like the idea of revitalising the thread Adz, will add my picks for comedy value, (like the first far more than the other two)

3.45 Kempton   Barnmore 14/1 e/w  C&D winner, quite like form of staying on 5th behind tenor last time out (beaten horses and winner that day have performed well subsequently)     Jockey takes off 7lb

5.10 Naas  4/1 win Elusive Laurence running well in defeat and drawn well, not huge value but price reflects his chance imo

3.15 Kempton   16/1 e/w Chester Deal, decent effort on his first try at 7f

[BigAdz]

Good stuff Simon.

It would be good to have a few more posters giving us their thoughts each day.

Don't worry if you may miss a smidge of value by not getting the right balance of win/place 100%. This is about what you fancy each day.

Would be good to see some other opinions.

[horseplayer]

Good luck Simon

[BigAdz]

Nice start Simon.

20-1 placer!

[horseplayer]

good stuff Simon stayed on pretty well there considering raced very wide throughout

[horseplayer]

non runner here like a winner, hope Doyle is ok.

Yours ran on well Simon seemed hard to make up ground

[claypole]

I am backing Palace Dragon on 4.45 at Kempton, think 4/1 is big - will strip a lot fitter and back to one mile should suit