Staking Resolution - The Bank Of Timex (w-interview)

[Longy]

+1 to Timex coming across as a massive tosser.

Hope he knocks it right in.

Haha, you make me laugh with these mini rants.

My purpose in life is to entertain.

You should follow me on Twitter.

18,000 mini rants so far, and counting.

I do follow you on twitter!

[skolsuper]

If he comes across as arrogant it's mainly because he's right (in the 'correct' sense of the word, not 'just').  Whilst it does seem like he is taking on huge risk with the main event, he has done this before with the Sunday Million so probably he's probably better placed to assess that risk than almost anybody else in the world.  However, I agree with his assessment in the podcast that the first few lays he's making are extremely low risk (relatively speaking), the sque451 thread @1.28 in the 200r etc, lfmagic at 1.3 in 20+ sunday hsmtts, phil ivey at 1.65 in the $5k (did I read this right??) and so on even I can see are going to be easy money spinners.  All this extra supply will probably mean the easy pickings won't last though.

[cambridgealex]

he must have such a huge net worth to take all this on. like 10m +?

[pleno1]

If he comes across as arrogant it's mainly because he's right (in the 'correct' sense of the word, not 'just').  Whilst it does seem like he is taking on huge risk with the main event, he has done this before with the Sunday Million so probably he's probably better placed to assess that risk than almost anybody else in the world.  However, I agree with his assessment in the podcast that the first few lays he's making are extremely low risk (relatively speaking), the sque451 thread @1.28 in the 200r etc, lfmagic at 1.3 in 20+ sunday hsmtts, phil ivey at 1.65 in the $5k (did I read this right??) and so on even I can see are going to be easy money spinners.  All this extra supply will probably mean the easy pickings won't last though.

He offered 1.65 to anybody in the 5k plo I think. Tom Marchese bought 20% of himself and people bought a lot of Ivey.

he must have such a huge net worth to take all this on. like 10m +?

Yeh pretty sick.

@dungbeetle, I don't see a problem with his credit risk. He said it himself that he will control it sensibly.

Very worst case scenario is that lets say there are 1000 buys in the main event and he somehow loses all 9 people then he doesnt lose 50% of 9 people. He generally will only offer 5-10% of people in the highest tournaments.

[DungBeetle]

But that's the point Alex.  He doesn't have to stump up £10 million because these contracts are not legally enforceable.  If he lays a bunch of winners then he can just default on all the bets and there are no other consequences aside from a savaged reputation.

That is why the credit risk is higher, because his bets are not underwritten by the the prize pool the players are competing for like they are when you invest direct.

[cambridgealex]

But that's the point Alex.  He doesn't have to stump up £10 million because these contracts are not legally enforceable.  If he lays a bunch of winners then he can just default on all the bets and there are no other consequences aside from a savaged reputation.

That is why the credit risk is higher, because his bets are not underwritten by the the prize pool the players are competing for like they are when you invest direct.

Think for those sums it'll be more than his reputation he'll be worrying about should he welch.

[skolsuper]

But that's the point Alex.  He doesn't have to stump up £10 million because these contracts are not legally enforceable.  If he lays a bunch of winners then he can just default on all the bets and there are no other consequences aside from a savaged reputation.

That is why the credit risk is higher, because his bets are not underwritten by the the prize pool the players are competing for like they are when you invest direct.

Agree that laying players in the main event is possibly a scandal waiting to happen. Perhaps though he would be able to "red out" with some of the remaining players if it's looking like he's grossly misjudged things on day 5/6.

[DungBeetle]

"@dungbeetle, I don't see a problem with his credit risk. He said it himself that he will control it sensibly."

I'm sure he will - he seems a reasonable chap and very smart.  But the point remains he has the scope to leverage himself hugely on contracts that are not legally binding.  So in my book I'd want a much lower markup if I was doing a Timex bet, than on a direct investment that is underwritten by the prize pool.

On something like the Main Event he may only realise he is overleveraged when it is too late, if he gets an outlier set of result.s

[strak33]

Harsh that sykes made you settle the hat bet during interview.

Good work on this seriously.

[cambridgealex]

Harsh that sykes made you settle the hat bet during interview.

Good work on this seriously.

A+

[pleno1]

"@dungbeetle, I don't see a problem with his credit risk. He said it himself that he will control it sensibly."

I'm sure he will - he seems a reasonable chap and very smart.  But the point remains he has the scope to leverage himself hugely on contracts that are not legally binding.  So in my book I'd want a much lower markup if I was doing a Timex bet, than on a direct investment that is underwritten by the prize pool.

On something like the Main Event he may only realise he is overleveraged when it is too late, if he gets an outlier set of result.s

Like he said in the interview though he will likely get investment from others, close friends of his and probably pool a bankroll of around 10m which should be fine right? He will just take the first 500k at least of action himself.

[cambridgealex]

I'd be worried about offending loads of people! Maybe he doesn't know many of them, but it seems like he does, and he's basically saying that they're offering bad investments. Either saying he believes they aren't as good as they think they are, OR that they are knowingly overpricing themselves.

[Pugwashed]

I'd be worried about offending loads of people! Maybe he doesn't know many of them, but it seems like he does, and he's basically saying that they're offering bad investments. Either saying he believes they aren't as good as they think they are, OR that they are knowingly overpricing themselves.

But I'm sure he's fine with it if its in the name of making the market place fairer and making himself some money in the process. I'm sure the vast majority of mtt players regularly selling packages just overrate themselves or have unrealistic expectations of what's achievable in terms of ROI rather than deliberately overpricing themselves. Either way I'm sure plenty of people oversell for both reasons but when people are prepared to pay that much then you can see why and things don't seem like changing, markups aren't getting smaller and games aren't getting softer

[pleno1]

its also going to make people wary when making a thread.

do you think many threads on blonde will get "timexed"?

[Woodsey]

I'd be worried about offending loads of people! Maybe he doesn't know many of them, but it seems like he does, and he's basically saying that they're offering bad investments. Either saying he believes they aren't as good as they think they are, OR that they are knowingly overpricing themselves.

But I'm sure he's fine with it if its in the name of making the market place fairer and making himself some money in the process. I'm sure the vast majority of mtt players regularly selling packages just overrate themselves or have unrealistic expectations of what's achievable in terms of ROI rather than deliberately overpricing themselves. Either way I'm sure plenty of people oversell for both reasons but when people are prepared to pay that much then you can see why and things don't seem like changing, markups aren't getting smaller and games aren't getting softer

I would say just about every poker player bar a few thinks they are better than they are, that's human nature and poker rolled into one.