Ragz 2014

[booder]

I thought you would be taller.

[Ragz]

I'm 5,9.

I just received a bit of a shock. There I was grinding away when suddenly flops and boards were briefly blinded by...

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Eh??  

Wondering how this has happened when only a few weeks ago I'd been demoted to gold, then gotten back up to platinum, suddenly I'm past 100k veeps. I'm not sure how differently they allocate VPPs since the horrid changes (I think it's more per game since it's less rewarding now) but either way, there's no way if I was on course for 100k vpips should I be getting demoted a few weeks beforehand. Well it's a $500 bonus at least.

[dwayne110]

$500 is not to be sniffed at, a change of fortune perhaps?

Assuming you are going to stick at it, I really feel you need to take on board some of the advice on previous pages; number 1 is having the right mentality, approaching the game positively. Stop finding stats illustrating how badly you've ran - think about it, what does that actually achieve, asides from making you feel like crap? If you are going to analyse your game, focus on finding your weaknesses and strengths, then do less of one and more of the other. It has to be constructive, not 'I'm running 75% less than expected value' etc etc

Good luck 🙂

[RED-DOG]

in accordance with my feng shiu kua number which is 5.


Deserves more love.

[bagel]

in accordance with my feng shiu kua number which is 5.


Deserves more love.

dont knock it till you have been there  mate

for ages i was convinced that my feng shiui kua number was 8.

then after thinking about it first thing every morning, examining it in great detail,worrying about it over months of sleepless nights,

i finally realised that it was all just a number 2

[Ragz]

Ooh that was a bit silly billy getting your kua number wrong from a simple calculation 

Looking at EV is a way to see luck is the reason I'm losing and not skill. Agreed, however, one should always keep ahead of their game, keep studying no matter what happens.

So since making a few changes in both surroundings and game play, things are looking a tad better.

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Not included any $60's because they're a joke results wise and make up most of the amount I'm down overall, running terribly in those, or sats which are also a joke and mostly 4-max hypers.

I decided to cut down on the buy-in levels and amount of MTT's. Decided it's ok to be playing massively high variance if I've got the life roll behind me, but I haven't. Even on someone else's dime where you don't really need to fear ruin, it's still not a good idea to play games which you cannot volume a decent amount in order to maximise the chances of variance evening out. And as it just so happens, the small amount of $60+ games I've gotten in over quite a long period of time, are mostly responsible for my horrid losses. So I've cut out most of the hyper MTT's, the biggest reason for that, though, not being the variance, but the amount in which I was timing out in the feckers in critical late game spots. Have also cut down the $60 18's mostly cuz I haven't playing much mid/late night stuff which is the only time the run a tiny bit. But overall they just don't run enough. You could argue well if that's the case then the odd one here and there isn't going to ruin the profits in relation to the chance of cashing for 1,2,3 or $400. But when you look at it:

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A 50bi downswing in them is pretty detrimental in the grand scheme of things...if they can't be volumed. So really it's only worth playing them if you're covered in life expenses. I need to stick to my bread and butter. You could argue that the $15 180's weren't bread and butter either cuz they also didn't run enough to even out variance faster. Maybe even the $8's didn't. 1000 of them (non-rebuys) played all year at 200 abi's down.

Well that should now change with the frequency in which these on-demands now run. Not sure what can be attained but during peak times I've seen as many as 18 running at once. I find it hard to imagine MTT only stables aren't having to handout subs or wages to players who are going months and months without winning. My stable asked for a portion of the MU back the other day, it's still another $3k or something to go til I'm back to break even, really can't see that being the case in the next couple weeks so I'll be having to ask to add more to the MU to live off.

The chair seems ok. Added padding to increase the lumbar support it gives. Not sure I'd say it's worth a grand brand new mind.

[pleno1]

hey, what do you mean your stable asked for some of the mu back?

[muckthenuts]

You sound like you work really hard and i'm glad to see you're tweaking things in your approach that is beginning to pay off. More stuff in this blog on things you've done to improve (and none on how bad you run ) would be great!

[Ragz]

hey, what do you mean your stable asked for some of the mu back?

Well after 3 reloads they're owed $4500 at least until I'm BE, so as I've made a few $ they've asked for bits back.

The blog will always have the bad times in it because it is my venting ground, not really a fairytale story, one thing I am is a realist.  Most of the posts are straight after a sesh when I'm pretty raging. I can put it down through the keyboard or take it out on the missus's face  Nah it's better for my health.

[RED-DOG]

hey, what do you mean your stable asked for some of the mu back?

Well after 3 reloads they're owed $4500 at least until I'm BE, so as I've made a few $ they've asked for bits back.

The blog will always have the bad times in it because it is my venting ground, not really a fairytale story, one thing I am is a realist.  Most of the posts are straight after a sesh when I'm pretty raging. I can put it down through the keyboard or take it out on the missus's face  Nah it's better for my health.

Great post.

I love all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. Keep it coming.

[Ragz]

For the final 20 working days until christmas, I told myself I'll do 10 hours a day in a massive bid to do something I've not come remotely close to doing before, and of course try to make back as much make-up as poss and hopefully be able to take some money for christmas presents and rent. Knowing there was probably 2% chance of me actually achieving that, I still thought it a good idea to say 10hrs and be unrealistic as it would at least maximise the amount of hours I actually do do. Monday gone I did 7 in one sitting, 10am til 5pm, was down almost a grand straight away and came back to -$150, Tuesday just 4hrs experiencing winner's tilt making $500, and yesterday 5.5 hours making $500. I was actually up $900 first sesh then started again and inevitably bricked a ton to knock half of it off. I've also been helping out the gf who's recently started a job debt collecting for Provident. The job looks potentially lucrative actually, I was offered one myself but probably wouldn't pass the credit check. Said I'd consider it. Interestingly I could probably do that and still get in 20+hrs of poker a week with huge effort. Hmmm

I've had a slight upturn in 180's, winning two $8's in a day then a third the next, first win in one of those since 1965 so I hit a run of them! However the trade off has come in the 18's, just huge lines of bricks in those, my overall ROI just looking pathetic and running consistently miles below day in day out. There is no evening out of anything, there never really has been, it's so fucking frustrating seeing the same bullshit red to green comparison every day.

The on-demands are deceptive, I feel I'm pwning the crap out of them, but along with 99% of all the other regs I've scoped, struggle to get even 10%. There's literally 2-3 regs from about 40 I've scoped who are doing well in them. Seems weird as 8-10% can be made in 14-16 reg 18-mans, so 20% should definitely be achievable in these 60-90-man jobs. Obviously still early days.

It does seem to be that repeating pattern, if fortune swings one way in a certain format, it'll plummet in the other, just cannot get a winning day across all formats, just an even, expected valuation of ness for a ness.

Monday, I think it was, I sattied into the Hot $82 which is quite early in the day and FT'd it. Funny thing was, I had like 1bb at bubble time of around 26 players, then went on one of those crazy winning three 5 way all-ins in a row streaks, always with the worst hand, then eventually bust with by far the best hand...in 9th. Winning this hand might've seen me $3k richer by this point in time https://www.boomplayer.com/21863662_AA7091F6C6

Housebot evidence hand of the week https://www.boomplayer.com/21882981_FC9FE80B1F

[Scoooop23]

Sup Ragz,

Are you playing 180s mainly still and all other turbo SnGs?

Ive been encouraged to transition into MTTs recently this year from the stable I joined in June, I was reluctant at first thinking about the MU and months without cash but looking at the other players in the stable and how there printing money in MTTs especially the low stakes guys where I would be playing to start off made me change my mind and I went MTTs full time on November 5th, it was a relief playing MTTs with plenty of fish in the games compared to those reg on reg battles in turbo SnGs and every reg fighting over the odd rec player at the table.

I was even running them 180 team bets as well on 2+2 just to try make it fun again and give me motivation in them as I wasnt happy playing them.

My 1on1 coach who also used to play turbo 180 SnGs full time and now plays MTTs says "I think I was pretty depressed playing turbo SnGs day in day out the last few years playing them & now playing MTTs its much more fun again"

I totally agree with what he said there now im playing MTTs full time, although its only been like two months ive been in MTTs and I have not hit a DS/BE stretch yet I still think its the way forward knowing that the games are way more stable than turbo SnGs long term.

Do you not think the turbo format is crap these days too? everyone has push fold charts/calling charts/3b charts/defend charts/ICM charts/ ect ect, there is not a lot of edge anymore and there aint lots of post flop edge when your so short stacked late stage all the time and not seeing many flops ect, also the volume is not there anymore especially in the 180s.

With MTTs now im trying my best to play off peak with the small fields and softer players as its less variance but yeah this is still in progress trying to wake up early to play off peak morning games haha.

Anyways gl fella & nice blog btw ( I just stumbled upon it today while checking out this UK poker forum )

[Ragz]

Cheers. Don't tell anyone in your team though will ya, don't want the Yanks finding us over here 

Well there's probably too many issues in everything you've said to cover really lol, but I still solidly feel $2/game is more than do-able in MTT SnG's, yet I seem to be taking a life time to achieve it on a consistent basis. This makes it hard to envisage MTT's being much better variance wise, not having much life roll to sit on anymore makes the thought of nothing for months (very possible in MTT's for anyone) too impractical.

That said it may be a line I have to end up going down but it will mean longer hours first of all, and secondly site combining. Hear lots of whines and moans still about the softwares of 888, party and so on and know it would be quite the task combining them all and others too. But it's something I'd be prepared to work on if I can't find happiness sooner or later.

But as I said, I'm convinced $2/game at least is still very doable in MTT SnG's. This is my garf since 10th November which was a date that I made a few changes to my game.

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It doesn't include $3r 180's as I'm unsure of the no. of rebuys covering that time as I've changed strategy on that recently. But needless to say; including the rebuys would increase the ROI slightly. And exlcuding horrid 4-max hyper sats as....just don't even go there.

I'm in no way putting it down to those changes though as it could be anything, simply running better due to my environment change (although it doesn't feel like I'm running any better whatsoever) or just plain coincidence....but I guess it's a pretty large % to say it could be down to said changes. Who knows.

The new On-Demand games have certainly seen old 180 volume increase dramatically, mostly due to smaller fields of all the 180 regs playing each other, but I still say >$2/game is achievable in those. If 8-10% is being reached in 14-17 reg 18-mans then certainly 20% should be doable in 70-100 mans. They're averaging around the 85 player mark I'd say.

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Better results than those ^ are definitely achievable though.

My problem is still volume at this time, two reasons for that. One, I've been ill with a stinking cough since November 26th when I went to Winter Wonderland, crammed into tubes sardine style all night, and since then this cough just will not shift. I never get coughs, like well over 10yrs since last one if not more, but since I've got one it just will not go. Six weeks now. It's the most irritating kind, where the spot of the lung that is aggravated I just can't hit it with the cough. This is causing excess straining and of course, headaches. Not easy to volume like this. I keep intending on eating as little as possible for as long as it takes, as fasting cures pretty much most stuff but that's also been real hard what with it being the season of CHOCOLATES EVERYWHERE ONE TURNS  

There's not really much to write home about as a 2016 summary, other than it was shit. 2017 goals are obviously to volume at least 2/3rds more than usual, preferably more than twice. And if I can progress well enough well then start playing more live, some of those 888 jobbies at Aspers and so forth. They  are obviously crushable to death playing nothing more than ABC poker, not even that just BC poker...just C poker would probably reap 50% ROi in small live stuff.

The usual 50% below for the year so far

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Gay hand from today https://www.boomplayer.com/22177217_783710917E

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My boy Rolo (miniature pinscher) in his funny sleeping position at the foot of the desk. He usually resides in a cage in the cold kitchen with an old biddy of a female (same breed) who's got a worse cough than me, so when he gets the chance to lay in the warm room and pester me for strokes he loves it  

[Ragz]

It's funny when it comes to filtering stats. I will always look for filters to show I'm actually good, fighting to find a path through the runhell, and in other players' graphs I'll look for filters that make them look bad, to show they just run good 

Charlie Carrel just made YET ANOTHER million bucks coming 2nd in PCA $100k SHR. It sucked that neither stars blog or pokernews were reporting on hands, not sure why that was. I really wanted to see them as it was vs excellent players for a change, Dan Coleman and Jason Koon, secretly hoping Coleman would wipe the floor with my native sunrunner. Really hope it'll make tv.

So to boost my ego somewhat I'm gonna post this little number I filtered out. My last 1k $7-$30 18-man garf.

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Sample schmample, but who cares. It's still an ROI I always believed is the achievable ceiling, but of course, even average 7%ers have at some time or other run even higher than this over a 1k sample, so it means very little. But I like to show off now and again 

Results have been marred by typically terrible runnings in the On-demands, however. I can't get an accurate read of figures in them to post as both HM1 and 2 can't seem to sort out the different field sizes correctly.

98% loser of the day

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[Ragz]

Almost every single playing day so far this year has been absolutely identical!! 50 bricks til allowing me a cash, $500-$800 down in the first few hours, then come back to break even or a couple hundred up at the last. This is January's amaya patternisation. Another hugely noticable pattern has been immense domination nation. Every hand where I'm jamming extremely wide or rcing a shorty, and they're calling off beyond marginally, say with something like Q6s in a spot where it's debatably profitable, literally 100% of those have I've been dominated, so I'll have 96 in that spot. This is the algorithm pattern for the month. It will switch Feb 1st, it always does. Different game every month


So despite the usual constant bullshit...

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...it's quite amazing that I'm up. Still not MTTing much, got deepish in Hot $22 yesterday but couldn't get the break. Tbh I think the turbo schedule for MTT's now is utterly appalling, only the Hots are worth playing. Not a huge fan of KO's cuz they require more attention being paid to notice when someone's short to compete for the KO with marginal holdings and such like. Wouldn't mind trying 888 and Party reg speed small field MTT's mixed in but don't relish the tables popping up along side Stars problems along with HUD issues too.

Checked out my local Genting schedule for the new year and it appears they've changed things somewhat. What used to be a £60 game every Sunday with a £100 on every 3rd one of the month, this has changed to a £300 £10k gtee every thrid Sunday!!   Find it hard to see they'll get the required 33 players to turn out every week but they're obviously confident they will. Tempted to ask my stable if they'd be interested backing me for them but I highly doubt they would, for whatever reasons. A Genting £300 would be similar to something like a $3 tourney on Stars I feel sur eof that lol. They've also introduced a third Friday of every month game too, however, with a more managable £75 buy-in. Interesting.