*****OFFICIAL***** 2015 GOLF BETTING THREAD

[tikay]

Had three small EW wagers in the Scottish Open. As you will imagine, they were not my selections, but given to me by a good & learned pal. Come Sunday, we shall both be very rich indeed.

Matt Jones

Robert Karlsson

Blixt

[pokerfan]

Betfair sports book paying 8 ew places, max £25 for 7/8th place finishers.

[doubleup]

^ At the Open that is - hopefully they won't cut their prices

Paddys paying 7 - presumably other tasty offers will abound.

[doubleup]

Spent a bit of time looking at the Scottish, but can't work out who will come out on top on what looks like a very bad hair day.

In the US gone for Brendon DeJonge Chad Campbell and Jeff Overton ew for 1stRL.  Overton and Campbell top ten and Campbell FTW.

Seems quite difficult for the 2nd round leader to win at TPC Deere Run, Stricker being the only one who has managed it in the last ten years along with his two other wins.  So I might have a look and see who is lurking in the pack on Saturday.

GL all!

So Overton a non-runner, was even replaced by another player in his 3-ball.  Betfair exchange top ten bet cancelled, but Paddy Power settled 1stRL bet as a loser and still not refunded despite prompting!

[doubleup]

Open Golf - loads going 8 and 7 places now!

Seems to me that there will be a slight weather advantage for Thursday morning/Friday Afternoon players.  The conditions seem much the same in terms of wind speed most of Thursday but there is a change in wind direction.  It shouldn't make a huge difference as the winds are forecast to be light all day.  On Friday the wind seems to favour afternoon starters but they will have a bit of rain to contend with.  Might not be too bad though, even slowing the greens a bit.

So at the moment I'm thinking of going for Thu morning players as 1stRL and outright but waiting till tomorrow to finally decide.

[Karabiner]

From my early weather research it looks as though the very earliest and latest groups on Friday might get the slightly better conditions with the middle of the day looking tougher.

Certainly Thursday looks fairly even currently.

[doubleup]

So my opening salvo is

1stRL Dustin, Freddie Jac, Rickie, Ryan Moore, Hunter M.  Backed Miguel J before draw/weather, as the 100-1, 6 places was too good - at least I've got a bit of value, but would've much preferred morning.

FTW Dustin, Rickie, Sergio, GMac, and a bit on Hunter M on BFX. 

[Omm]

Brendon Todd 110-1 365 7 places , 130.0 on Betfair win, 25.0 top 5 betfair.

His results this year are his best and seems like he is on form, Ranked 9th in FedEx Points and 41st in World. Has Made cut 19/22 this year with a win, 7 top tens and 11 top 25's. Pretty consistent this year and seems to have hit form n the last 6 tournaments including a win and 17th in the US Open.

Maybe not the best tee times as he is out 12:30 Thursday and then again Friday morning, looking at Doubleup's posts that may not be the best of the weather although Karabiner thinks early Friday morning might be ok and Todd goes at 7:31 on Friday morning.

Obviously not saying anything that people can't find out for themselves but I ran a couple of predictors using golf betting systems euro pga predictor and amongst others his name popped up a couple of times.

Thoughts?

[doubleup]

As I said in TfT - its hard to find a bad bet in the EW market.  If the 8 places are still available with Baldfred then 100-1, 8 places has about the same EV as 110-1, 7 places but less variance. 

[Omm]

As I said in TfT - its hard to find a bad bet in the EW market.  If the 8 places are still available with Baldfred then 100-1, 8 places has about the same EV as 110-1, 7 places but less variance. 

Totally missed the betfred 8 places, thanks for the steer.

[doubleup]

Just found a rancid clause in the Betfair Sportsbook offer


If you Cash Out, or place a lay bet on the Exchange in the same market as your Sportsbook bet you will not qualify for a bonus placed payout on this promotion.

So if you have placed an each way bet and it looks like placing you can't trade on the outright or top 5 market

[doubleup]

senior moment

[Karabiner]

Taken a chance on Louis Oosthuizen's back holding up at a big price(140), as when he's been fit he's played really well this year.

Dabbles on English and Horschel, with Willett EW my top fancy.

I do like Fowler a lot, he's been a strong fancy for a while but the price contracted drastically as I was next in line to get matched @ 60 so may get on IR.

[BigAdz]

Have had some obv bets on the frontish part of the market.

Dustbin/Fowler/ and the two I put up. Have also done some others when the numbers have been right.

I have three banzais with every intention of trading if I get the chance

Daawie V D Walt.

Sterne, still struggling with injury issues but gonna come good at some point

Shawn Stefani, playing some lovely stuff and would have three top performance on the bounce but started badly last week and managed to pull it back. All priced over 600s for a bit o fun  for a few tenners. Cant wait.

[Karabiner]

Have fired a small quiver of degen darts at the 1srRL market too, I blame doubleup for leading me astray here.

RickieF, Casey, Oosty, and 'arrisE.

It would be nice to finally connect with one of these and have a decent freeroll.

GL everyone.