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Author Topic: learning from the best  (Read 4429 times)
cambridgealex
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2014, 02:56:26 PM »

I really doubt Moorman got to where he is today by "not caring" about bubbles or making -EV plays because he didn't care / it was "only" $44.

I've been on tables where's he's used a 90 second time bank with 99% of his stack in the middle just to try and ladder a €8 pay jump or maybe even smaller.

Having said that maybe he's got the lot again now so things have changed.
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Rupert
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« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2014, 04:54:01 PM »

I really doubt Moorman got to where he is today by "not caring" about bubbles or making -EV plays because he didn't care / it was "only" $44.

yeah this, wtf, he's a good player not some rich idiot. i'd say it's far more likely he either didn't realise it was the bubble or was tilted. if he looks at this objectively i don't think it's a jam but idk maybe it is?
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Honeybadger
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« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2014, 05:37:43 PM »

I know next to nothing about poker tournaments, ICM or such things. But is this not a good spot to imagine it is 2005 and stop-and-go? Or is MTT poker far too clever and sophisticated for such things nowadays?
« Last Edit: April 07, 2014, 05:44:59 PM by Honeybadger » Logged
dwayne110
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« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2014, 07:55:29 PM »

I don't think this spot can be argued as being particularly well or not well played, can put up a good argument for folding or shoving: -

Shove - we're not worrying about the bubble, we want a big cash and to give us a chance see this as a good spot to gii flipping a high % of the time... we're on the bubble so know the big stacks will be raising light frequently... We also have 7 bs with antes in play, will we get a better spot?

Fold - min-cash, secure a profit, then we can gii

From a bankroll perspective, I'd expect Moorman is likely to be more risk-inclined in such spots as he wants a better prospect of a big cash. Easier to take risks when the impact if negligible to your 'business expenses'. Does he gii on the bubble of the Wsop main event in this spot? I think not.
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wazz
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« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2014, 10:19:57 AM »

The point is not that he doesnT care about $ but that space on his screen and the concentration needed to play another mtt outweigh the icm considerations
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2014, 11:40:59 AM »

Moorman has 100% not done anything blatantly -EV cos it's just $44, the idea of him gambling to get a big stack over very basic profitable, professional tournament play is just not possible IMO. He either thinks the play IS +EV or he's just made a mistake, which can happen.

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mulhuzz
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« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2014, 06:34:41 PM »

Moorman has 100% not done anything blatantly -EV cos it's just $44, the idea of him gambling to get a big stack over very basic profitable, professional tournament play is just not possible IMO. He either thinks the play IS +EV or he's just made a mistake, which can happen.



Agree, him making a mistake not that interesting but him thinking it's a good shove is interesting to consider because he's the best ldo.
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Doobs
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« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2014, 07:09:59 PM »

I am not even sure this is going to be -EV.  He gets 2/1 to so, so his stack only has to increase its worth by 50% for taking on a race to be good.  He is against an opponent who he may think is an aggro spanner; Pleno could be raising every hand here for instance.  It wouldn't be the first time I saw someone raise fold some dross from this spot, people do far weirder folds than this.  If your average aggro player is running over the table, does he want to be showing the worst parts of his range etc.

Your average stack here is going to be worth $300 or so, so it isn't like the immininent min cash is going to be a big chunk of that.  Plus a 20k stack is so much better than a 7k one in the hands of someone like Moorman (or Pads).

Just don't see how this can be obv bad as some say and others imply.  I instinctively shove here, and don't think it can be that far wrong, fk the bubble.  And I am not convinced I could use the 20k stack as well as Moorman or Pads could.

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Amatay
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« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2014, 09:00:33 PM »

He probably had bubble protection
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« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2014, 09:19:51 PM »

He probably had bubble protection

top drawer that
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theprawnidentity
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2014, 01:39:51 PM »

Worked out a way to do some ICM calculations on this spot for an MTT bubble type situation.  I have had to scale it down a bit, but I ran this spot for a 180 man tournament with 27 paid and 28 people remaining.  I know it's not perfect but the results should be pretty close.  I have the average stack in the tournament at 10bb, and I have put a few <2bb stacks into the equation too.

I have assumed that pads is opening 50% of hands here will be calling off 100% of the time.

The results suggest that ICM-wise, we should jam with:  (25.2%) 44+,A2s+,A3o+,K8s+,K9o+,QTs+,QJo  and 44 nets us $9.80 profit.

The slight shortfall in this calculation are that the min cash is slightly bigger in the Hotter 44 than a 180 man, so this spot is probably not quite as possible as this calculation suggests.  I still don't think this is burning money like has been suggested previously.


As a back up, I also ran this calculation for pads opening 30% of hands and calling 100%, and it suggests we should shove:  (12.8%) 44+,A7s+,A8o+,KQs  with 44 only netting us a $1.80 profit vs this range.
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Amatay
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« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2014, 02:10:52 PM »

He probably had bubble protection

top drawer that

Thank you. I was quite pleased with it.
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theprawnidentity
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« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2014, 03:00:46 PM »

On the advice of others I have also adjusted this for a slightly more staggered payout than a 180 man, using the Hot 109 structure and payouts from last night instead.  This is assuming 226 entries, 36 paid, 37 left and 20.45% of the prizepool up top and a bigger min cash than a 180.  Unfortunately ICMIZER won't do bubbles bigger than 60 players for some reason.

This suggests: (16.6%) 55+,A4s+,A7o+,KTs+,KJo+  with 44 being a slight negative.
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2014, 03:17:29 PM »

Cliffs of thread:
<3 pairs
Moorman knows
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Sulphur man
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« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2014, 06:39:49 PM »

tomsom who does this geeky stuff all the time says 44 is fine to gii. anybody can recommend a video on these exact spots? im pretty sure im playing way too nitty in these spots.
Been watching a load of 180mtt stuff on Deucescracked and min cashing is of very little importance. They are going for the top spots. Suppose if you are rolled then these moves are fine.
Remember Moorman talking once about Tilt Shoving on all his tables at once and when he doubles up they are then lucky chips so he therefore cant lose (obv tongue in cheek on his behalf)
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