2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread

[millidonk]

Thought it would be better for this to have it's own thread instead of cluttering up tft. Plus i'm sure there are others who are ridic excited for the wave of football about to engulf the planet who don't have time to read through nfl, swimming, chess and women's lacrosse info.

All world cup markets: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/betting-markets


Something I have already bet is Dzeko Top Scorer EW @100/1 (EW is 1/4 odds for top 4)

Lots of reasons why I think this is a good ew bet:

His odds in the main are 66-80/1. VC are standout with 100/1
Bosnia 2nd fav to qualify in their group behind Argentina. Most likely to meet France if they get out of their group (France are beatable).
They have Nigeria and Iran in their group. Iran are one of the teams likely to concede the most goals and Nigeria have been awful of late.
He is known for coming up with the goods when it matters.
Been really impressed with him recently for City.
Scored 33/60 of his country's goals and 10 from 10 in this qualifying campaign.
He was booed off in his country's game where they lost to Egypt so will be wanting to put things right (he was injured when travelling to the game, asked to come off but the manager made him play anyway)
These Eastern European types have a knack of binking the golden boot in the WC. Salenko and Suker in 94/98.

3 to 4 goals is almost always enough to see you get paid on the each way bet. He could get all of them just vs Iran.. 1 vs Nigeria and nick 1 vs Argentina or France and we could have a mega sweat..

[Kmac84]

Efe Ambrose is sure to peak for the WC so Djeko not scoting against Nigeria ;-)

[millidonk]

Efe Ambrose is sure to peak for the WC so Djeko not scoting against Nigeria ;-)

He'll just have to score 4 vs Iran then.

[Tal]

Subscribed

[superwomble]

Good idea milli and nice banzai, gl!

[millidonk]

Subscribed

Come on Westwood.

[Tal]

Subscribed

Come on Westwood.

So thought I'd got that through!

[horseplayer]

You cant argue with Edin at 100/1 Here is a little bio for you Milli for the run good.

Interesting Bosnia have only picked two strikers in the squad.

Click to see full-size image.

[millidonk]

Missed that bio horsey, never showed up when I read it on my phone. Very nice, gotta love Edin! Sick finish to the season as well. Always comes up with the big goals. Fingers crossed he carries it through.


This made me chuckle when browsing oddscheker this morning:



Gotta love our blind patriotism.


I've added my second bet to my world cup portfolio.

Edinson Cavani TGS E/W 40/1

Reasons:

6 from 6 in qualifying
16 from 25 for PSG
Uruguay are 1/2 to qualify from our group
He is as low as 28/1 in places so we got some value pie
If Suarez plays well he will be dishing out assists left, right and centre as well as scoring himself.
Out of the 4 world cups held in South America all 4 have been won by South American teams (twice by Uruguay). The 2 in Mexico (similiar conditions) were also won by South American teams.
If I am correct Spain and Brazil are on the other side of the draw so we could get a deece run.


I have also come across some shorter price stuff which I think is pretty deece: Dzeko to be top scorer for Bosnia 13/8 seems massive.

One of the bets I liked seems to have already come in. It was England Over 5.5 goals for the tournament @ evs. Can only see 8/11 now with Betfair. Hoping more bookies price up stuff like this as we get closer.

For anyone who didn't know (as I didn't until this morning) on oddschecker if you click the individual nation's flags at the top of the page you get all the country specials.

[Kmac84]

Do we buy into the philosophy that European nations cannot win in South America or is the sample size not ample?

Can we expect any of the African nations to spring a shock. 

If the answers for you are yes, no as they are for me do we like any the South American teams outwith Brazil/Argentina at bigger prices?

I am happy to fire a few darts at Chille/Colombia/Mexico/Honduras and hope one or two make the semis for a nice free roll for the final.

I honestly don't have much of an opinion on much else as my knowledge of many he teams is below the required level. 

[redarmi]

Do we buy into the philosophy that European nations cannot win in South America or is the sample size not ample?

Can we expect any of the African nations to spring a shock. 

If the answers for you are yes, no as they are for me do we like any the South American teams outwith Brazil/Argentina at bigger prices?

I am happy to fire a few darts at Chille/Colombia/Mexico/Honduras and hope one or two make the semis for a nice free roll for the final.

I honestly don't have much of an opinion on much else as my knowledge of many he teams is below the required level. 

I really don't buy into this stuff about the Euro teams being at a big disadvantage.  All previous South American world cups were played pre 1980 and travel has changed a great deal since then.  The euro teams are going to be pampered and looked after beyond belief.  In previous tournaments the euro teams would have had horrendously difficult travelling arrangements, very different food to get used to etc but nowadays all of those risks are eliminated almost completely and the modern footballer is used to travelling fairly extensively.  Also altitude is less likely to be an issue in this world cup than others played in this area especially Mexico.  There will obviously be some element of home advantage but I would be surprised if it is as big as is generally expected.

[KitKeeper]

Cavani now 50/1 with sportingbet.

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Hello, long time reader, first time poster etc...

[tikay]

Cavani now 50/1 with sportingbet.

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Hello, long time reader, first time poster etc...

Welcome to blonde, Mr Keeper, or if I may be familiar, Kit.

Tell us a little about yourself, please.

Hope you enjoy blonde, any questions, fire away.

[KitKeeper]

Cavani now 50/1 with sportingbet.

---

Hello, long time reader, first time poster etc...

Welcome to blonde, Mr Keeper, or if I may be familiar, Kit.

Tell us a little about yourself, please.

Hope you enjoy blonde, any questions, fire away.

Thanks, Mr Kay, or if I may be familiar, Ti.

Been a reader for a while now and although I used to play poker a lot, I now pretty much stick to sports betting with varying levels of success.

The forum has done well for me on a few occasions recently so I thought I'd contribute and give something back. Sort of.

[millidonk]

Welcome Mr KK. Did you see Cavani @50s on Betfair? I had a look as was happy to press at that price but 40/1 still seems to be best price at the bookies,  28/1 in some places. Probs with Betfair is that we don't get the value from the ew part of the bet as it is win only I think.

You got any fancies for the WC yet yourself?


Edit, my bad, you said sportingbet. I am completely blind, should really stop posting on my phone. Can't see any reason  for this price tbh. Will have to investigate further