£10m Scoop 6 Sat 17th May. May the fourth be with you DEADLINE 8pm FRIDAY

[aaron1867]

I've just caught up with the other thread & it's disappointing to see yet again that Adz has been left out in the cold. He is for me one of the best horse punters we have & to discard him to an extent when his help is free & it could be argued that he is a better judge than some of the team that puts the perm together. However I'm not having a go & appreciate the time they have put in, but there is no I in TEAM & we need Adz on board.

We have come nowhere near in this scoop 6 so far & to miss out on valuable opinions here seems insane.

Chompy, Doobs, Adz, Neil, Trigg & Co. They look like a good set of judges to me & surely we can get closer.

I'm in for £50 if we work together!

[FUN4FRASER]

I've just caught up with the other thread & it's disappointing to see yet again that Adz has been left out in the cold. He is for me one of the best horse punters we have & to discard him to an extent when his help is free & it could be argued that he is a better judge than some of the team that puts the perm together. However I'm not having a go & appreciate the time they have put in, but there is no I in TEAM & we need Adz on board.

We have come nowhere near in this scoop 6 so far & to miss out on valuable opinions here seems insane.

Chompy, Doobs, Adz, Neil, Trigg & Co. They look like a good set of judges to me & surely we can get closer.

I'm in for £50 if we work together!

Aaron ...this is not a dig and I know you mean well but for Run Good Karma lets allow " The Chosen Guys " to get on with it .

They will do their best to secure all advice and information , some of it of course will be through pms .

[OverTheBorder]

In for £30, got zero on stars, Dan can you PM details? or can deposit on stars if easier

Thanks for organising

[kpnuts]

Can't quit now. Will ship £100 on Stars and thanks again to all involved in picking, placing etc.

EDIT: £100 (US$169) sent on Stars from killerkp.

[Doobs]

I've just caught up with the other thread & it's disappointing to see yet again that Adz has been left out in the cold. He is for me one of the best horse punters we have & to discard him to an extent when his help is free & it could be argued that he is a better judge than some of the team that puts the perm together. However I'm not having a go & appreciate the time they have put in, but there is no I in TEAM & we need Adz on board.

We have come nowhere near in this scoop 6 so far & to miss out on valuable opinions here seems insane.

Chompy, Doobs, Adz, Neil, Trigg & Co. They look like a good set of judges to me & surely we can get closer.

I'm in for £50 if we work together!

Last week BigAdz, Chompy and Neil made contributions.  Of Adz's 18 horses I think I took out 3, and queried another to the group.  I think Chompy maybe lost 1 or 2.  In the final list there were just 2 horse that I had added personally.  There was a minor shit storm on Friday night and Saturday as I had removed some horses from Adz.  

Neil and Chompy have provided me with lots of additional content around the races, which means I can see which of their horses are the ones they fancy most.  To put horses in I have to take others out.  The horses I removed were all priced on the higher side.  Adz hadn't provided any reasoning with his tips, so this seemed as good a way as any.  I strongly believe that getting rid of longer priced horses strengthens a perm (this has been backed up by Neil, Red Armi and Arbboy).  I can't remember the exact count, but think 1 or 2 was because I couldn't think of any good reason to exclude ahorse that was significantly shorter, and 1 or 2 were to make way for some of Chompy's picks.  I PM'd Adz explaining I had taken out his longer priced horses, think we exchanged another PM or two then he just put his gripe on the board.  This caused a bit of a minor hoohah, which took up a bit too much of my time late on the Friday.  

Though he has been sending me stuff on a Friday, I tend to get Neil's thoughts on specific horses on Saturday.  That Saturday when I got Neil's thoughts, I was in a bit of a bind.  To include some of Neil's I had to take out some that were there from the night before. Because I didn't want to antagonise the situation further, I just left the ones Adz had picked in and took out one more of Chompy's out and 2 I had added.  

Of all the 3 people who sent me information, Neil clearly had a higher proportion of his selection's ignored, and it wasn't even close.   I think that was an unsatisfactory situation and one that was best not repeated last week.   I have run several big syndicates over the last 10 years and there is nothing worse than individuals sniping because some of their horses were overlooked.  It is going to happen to anybody who sends their thoughts in and it is just the nature of putting together several people's opinions and coming up with something that works as a perm (ie none of the lines are going to have too many outsiders, we don't just have the first few in the betting for each race and we have something close to the "right" number of runners in a race.    

Early last week BigAdz indicated he wasn't in for the perm this week, and he didn't make much of a secret how disgruntled he was.    

Adz indicated in the week he was just having a token interest in the comp, and that he was directing the main part of his money elsewhere.

He then posted this

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=2380;sa=showPosts;start=45

Token £25 sent Reference: Favourites only Scoop.

and ths

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63692.msg1938028#msg1938028

which together with the one the hoohah the week before was a little peeving.  For everybody's information I have given up probably over 20 hours over the 3 weeks on this comp, to read that and several other posts by Adz in the last week describing it as a two minute job seems a little uncalled for.  I am probably trying to win it harder than anybody else in the syndicate.  Friday is normally one of my 3 big poker sessions of the week, and barring a few early and a few very late PLO8s I have had to give it up, and likely will this week too.  Poker is my work, so I gave up my earnings for the night (I know this is an open goal but I occasionally win).  As indicated last week, I probably gave up way too much of my holiday last week too.  

Adz posted nothing else on the board and nothing by PM, so I went without him.  I guess I could have sent a chase on Friday evening, but I had 6 races to analyse and thought my time was better spent doing that than chasing Adz.    

When I sent out the lists, i sent them to Neil, Horsey and Chompy.  I also exchanged a few PMs with Trigg, including the selections for the trickiest races, and I changed a couple of things after that.    In my original mailing list I put BigAdz in but thought I don't need another drama on Saturday morning, so thought I have Neil and Chompy to review things.   I genuinely think they are the best people on horse betting we have here.  It isn't like I just sent my thoughts to a few idiots.

On Saturday Marky queried asking BigAdz.  Saturday mornings are difficult, I lose an hour and a half or so around 11 taking my youngest swimming and they don't do laptops and phones I can take in the pool (well I don't have one if they do).  Dan needs the selections soon after 12, my kids need feeding soon after 12.  On a Saturday morning I have to switch things round a bit after seeing Neil's post.  I have to make sure we have a perm that spends near enough the right amount of money.  I have to make final decisions on a handful of horses.  I have to put the horses numbers in a pm and double check them (would hate to feck up a £5k bet).   I do this whilst giving kids breakfast, entertaining them and have to deal with the constant danger of my 2 year old finding the off switch (she can do this from behind the laptop screen and she does frequently).  There simply issn't time to seek any more opinions at that stage and bring them in, and there certainly isn't time to discuss strategy or deal with any arguments.

If Adz wants to send horses next week he is more than welcome.    I am not just saying this, I'd like nothing better than to see a list of well reasoned horses from 3 or 4 people so I can just read between the lines pick the best 4 or 5 horses and send a perm out for discussion.  

Finally, we aren't not getting close because there isn't enough work going in, we aren't getting close because winning it is enormously difficult.  No matter how much work we do, next week we are going to be 50/50 to lose after race 1 and even with a huge perm, maybe 1000/1 to win overall.  If people don't like that, save your money.  

We are probably due a place win or two, so hopefully we can get at least something back this week.

If you are a little pissed off when your £50 goes on Saturday, after spending a couple of minutes browsing the thread, think how it would feel if you had spent 7 hours on it and had 4 hours sleep because of that.  

A bit TL;DR, so

Cliffs.  Adz can send selctions this and any other week, please everyone quit the sniping and just accept we aren't just picking 3 favourites from the SP forecast.

Cheers

PS I have a strategy post to come later with some maths.    

[TheDazzler]

Tremendous work Doobs and very much appreciated. I hate when people who put ina load of effort for free, get abuse for not doing more or 'you're doing it wrong'.

You're like one of those Super Mums, balancing a busy work life with a family. I've a mate who is a documentary maker, I'd love to get him to film you for a week

[BigAdz]

Whoa there.

I have already become the most maligned poster on Blonde, without you reporting the facts wrong Doobs.

As i said a few weeks ago, its not the first time you have slung some stuff my way because you read what you wanted to think I said, not what I ACTUALLY said.

I never once moaned because my selections weren't used, which is what you are saying. You are making it sound like I have chucked my toys out for that reason, and that is bullshit to put it bluntly.

No, my reason for moaning was that I suggested we weren't utilising the skills at our disposal with some very good horseracing minds, and instead we were going down the road that all the big syndicates would, that of using some sort of game theory, that in turn would mean everyone fished in the same pond, and the likely result being that when it was won it would be a smaller overall payout because of this.

I have had several pms agreeing that we have a valuable bunch of brains that could have looked outside the box too. But understandably, after the grief I have had, no one is willing to post this. No, I tell a lie, a few have, but the majority haven't and i don't blame them.

Regardless, at some point one of you, Neil or Chompy did say, yes it would be pretty much front end of the market stuff, as this was the best theoretical path. At that point, having made my point, I shut up. But it has been you that ever since has tried to make a point that "we aren't picking just favourites etc" and it almost seemed to me at that point that you had pretty much abandoned your own policy to try and prove me wrong, as you kept making the point, even before you knew the horses taking part. Seems a strange thing to keeping trying to achieve, as it may well be that the best horses WERE at the front of the market!

I think you see where I am going with this. Based on that premise, I decided it was best to leave you to it and see where your game theory that proves Adz wrong actually left you.

You also make a point that you probably worked the hardest on selections. You say you worked 20 hours over the 3 weeks. i probably did that over the 3 days prior. Other syndicates i was involved with didn't win either, but then neither did the best horse race brains in Britain, so i won't lose too much sleep over it, but for sure you aren't the only one putting in heaps of work. I do so with all my selections on Blonde, and think I give just as much to Blonde as I get, more at the moment, in fact. I may no longer gamble for a living, but that was through choice, family and illness, not because I didn't make it pay for several years. But rest assured i still spend most of my waking hours in study.

Anyway. The fact is I shall still be involved in the syndicate financially. I won't get involved in the selection process, as a couple of you I had more respect for, have tried your best to make me look bad/stupid etc(I can do that well enough myself, but also big enough to realise it), and it would leave a bad taste.

All I had hoped for was a gambling thread might have tried to have more of a punt to win it big, that was my point. A compromise and still giving us more fun would have been to take everyones contribution, but each person have one line of THEIR choice, so from £50, £48 would still go in the pool, and we would have, say, 30 other single lines wilth some wonderfully wild stabs, and some bragging rights to those as they fluked it past each race. Would have added some extra fun, but you have chosen a path, and again I wish you good luck with it. Im sorry for the upset i have caused in trying to get my point across.

[Doobs]

Adz.

You are the one that is making it personal.  I don't think you are an idiot, I don't think your selections are bad.  I just don't see why you think people are trying to make you look stupid.  All I have ever tried to do is explain why I think one strategy is better than another, and why I have picked one horse over another.  I haven't compared your methods to Andy Capp or suggested you just took 2 minutes.  Maybe sometimes I'd like to explain to people better why a horse has been pushed out, but normally I just need every free minute on a Saturday  just to get the perm prepared on time.  When it is done, I just want to watch the races and look after the kids.

I believe good strategy is top of the market with the best of the mid priced horses.  I am going to put up a big post tonight that goes through the maths of this.  It isn't just for you, it is so the others can understand where we are coming from and why.

At absolutely no stage have I said I didn't want you to make picks, this week or last week.

Doobs
 

[BigAdz]

Again, not really what I said.

I haven't once said you won't allow me or don't want me to make picks in that post. I didn't suggest either that you thought my picks were stupid/bad.

I purely didn't agree with the strategy and tried to put a case for why we needed to be different. You don't agree. I understand the logic. I have said that from the start. I just hoped for a little more latitude and openmindedness(if there is such a word). You don't want to. Fine.

And btw, if you have had a humour bypass, the Andy Capp bit is meant as a bit of fun, I know you spend more than two mins on it, but like to have a humorous twist, even if its only me that gets it!

[RedFox]

In for fifty please

[Doobs]

I just had a look back at last week's Scoop 6, and have done a bit of maths.

Looking back at the numbers I think £3.65 million was added to the pool.  Fred takes 30% of that which is £1.1m.  The rest is added to the prize pool in the ratio 7:4:3 (win fund, place fund, bonus fund).

For that £3.65m we get a chance at winning a £4.575m win fund, a £730k place fund, and a £2.84m bonus fund. 

So woohoo, £8.1m >>> £3.65m, so that is a no brainer?

I don't think so.  Even with all the entries, I was thinking last week it is only 50/50 this goes.  So we don't get £4.575m of value from the win fund, we just get £2.3m.  And if we assume that the bonus fund only goes half the time (tricky this, it is obviously was less than half the time if one person wins the win fund, but is going to be way more than this if 30 people split it).  I think 50% must be about the right ballpark.  So that £2.84m is worth only £710k to us.  It is a given the £730k place fund goes, so for everybody's £3.65m they get £3.57m back.  So even on a massive rollover the average person made a bad EV bet if it was only 50/50 that the comp was won last week

I must admit I was pretty surprised by that, but think it is right.

So how do we improve on that rubbish result?

If you look at the numbers above, 39% of the money we can win is in the place and bonus fund pools.  To get at that money iin week 1, all you have to do is win.  There is very little extra gain from picking bigger prices runners in a place pool. 

It may be an extreme example, but when Trigg did that superb bink wth Night of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas at 40/1, those that picked Kingman (5/4) and Australia (3/1) got exactly the same return from the place pool as he did.  Yet your horse was probably only 10/1 or so to get there, Kingman was probably 2/5 or so.  It is very rare where you get 3 or 4 33/1+ winners at the front of any race, so you pick a 30/1 chance in a placepool above a 10/1 chance all you have done is reduced your chance of winning by two thirds and only marginally increased the likely pool (If you assume nobody else at all gets that 30/1 horse in the placepool in a 4 place race, then you have reduced your chance of surviving that placepool by about 67% and increased your likely win by only 33%.  For that race you have reduced your expected place payout to 44% of what it was before.  You do this over 6 races, you reduce your expected return on that placepool to 1/140th of what it was before.  This isn't a typo.  You are going to see similar numbers picking 12/1 horses over 4/1 horses over 6 races.

What is more is that you get similar figures if trying for the bonus pool.  You get there and to win you still have to find the winning 10/1 chance in a big handicap.  That is true whether you are on your own, or if there are 5 people there.  Though you might have to share if there are 5 of you, it is more likely that when your 10/1 chance flashes home the other 4 will have backed something else.  So I don't think it really matters if you pick 6 9/1 chances or 6 14/1 chances your expectation of winning when you get there is going to be much the same.  I am guessing but maybe your expectation is going to be about 20% lower when you get there if you did the 9/1 route as you are likely sharing the win fund and there is always a chance you hit somebody else's horse (seriously collusion is right here, you'd be mad to turn down the opportunity, but that is another post).

So if you pick 6 14/1 chances over 6 races rather than 9/1 chances, how much do you reduce the chances that you get to have a pop at the bonus fund.  The correct answer is 91%. 

So if you assume that picking 9/1 chances only reduces your expectation by 20% when you get there, then picking 6 9/1 chances improves your expected return from the win fund by 800% above the fella who likes the look of the 14/1 chances.  And this is the case even if your opponent has found some great horses that are all 18/1 when they should be only 14/1.  This is really important to understand and fundamentally different from how you should normally bet.     
       
Overall you pick 6 14/1 horses your expected return on the place fund and bonus fund is going to be only maybe 15% or so of the amount you'd expect to win if you back 6 9/1 horses.   So if we have a 10k fund, you are pretty much torching £3.3k by trying to be clever and finding 14/1 horses that should be 18/1 rather than 9/1 horses that are priced correctly.

So what about the win fund, I hear you say.  Don't we get some of that torched money back there?

Well if you pick 6 14/1 chances that should be 18/1, your chance of making it to race 6 on your own is much better than mine just picking 6 9/1 horses.  You'd get there and probably get £6m all to yourself.  Maybe some of the time you'll share, but you likely get it to your self.  So what are your chances of getting there?  The answer is 1/11.4m.  So of the £6.1m we have left, you have just torched another £3k or so. 

So the clever racing analyst who finds 6 horses at 14/1 that should be 18/1 is losing two thirds of his money every time he makes a bet.  In fact Andy Capp picking the first 3 favourites in each race when he looks at Betfair is going to be so way ahead. 

So what is the expectation of the person who finds 6 horses all around 9/1, or horses such that his accumulator has a 1 in a million chance of winning or so.  It is harder to answer because his chance of sharing is going to be much higher than our clever racing analyst above.  But I have done the Ten To Follow comp with the Tote for a number of years.  Some of the correct strategy there is similar to what it is here (your lines should be heavily weighted towards obvious horses, and there are a few others I won't put here), but does the average person do this?  You look through random lines (they are all on the ten to follow site) and you'll find lines littered with dark horses, others with way too many 3 year olds etc.   Contrary to most people's expectation that if you do the most sensible thing you'll be sharing your space with everyone else, a lot of other people will do something stupid. 

So in this comp, I'd expect lots of people to make errors too.  Whether that is just betting like a normal value punter or spending time finding elusive "dark horses" that will set them apart from the people like me.  Most people will have no idea what the optimal strategy is, and even those that have a rough idea will find ways of doing stuff that isn't close enough to optimal.  So those like us who are weighted towards the shorter horses, are going to be getting extra value from all those people making bad mistakes.  So our £6k in the win fund should be worth quite a bit more than that.   And there are a myriad of different ways to create a solid perm in these comps, and barring all 6 favourites winning, I think you'd be awfully unlucky to find one that pays a lot less than if you had just backed the 6 horses in an accumulator.   

So by weighting our lines heavily towards shorter priced horses we are definitely improving our expected return in the place pools and bonus pools (and there really is little doubt on this), and I strongly believe we are doing the same in the win fund.

So if I have seen a 25/1 chance and taken it out and shoved a 7/1 chance in its place, I am not doing it because I don't think that 25/1 chance shouldn't be 20/1, I do it because putting 25/1 chances in when 7/1 horses are available kills our value in the comp.  And most of our value in this comp is from just getting the strategy right. 

Having said all that, there is definitely a place for horse picking in the comp, many races have a whole host of horses around the 8/1 to 14/1 mark.  Getting the right ones there is obviously crucial too.  And as some will have noticed last week, in the last race the morning Betfair market had no horse below 14/1 when I looked.  If that has happened you must include some horses that are 20/1 or bigger, and we did.  We didn't do that because I was getting soft, we did it because we had to.

It really is ridiculous to say I am not open minded on this or that I don't think outside the box.  I didn't read any of this is a book or website, it is all down to just sitting there and thinking what should work.  If all this kind of shit is inside everybody else's boxes I'd be pretty shocked.

Think I have done strategy now, any questions?
 

[BorntoBubble]

How do you win the bonus fund.

[Dubai]

Might as well let me pick next week. Will take me 2 mins max and do it watching Saturday Morning Kitchen

Any objections?

[Ironside]

Might as well let me pick next week. Will take me 2 mins max and do it watching Saturday Morning Kitchen

Any objections?

if this happens put me in for £10

[rfgqqabc]

Might as well let me pick next week. Will take me 2 mins max and do it watching Saturday Morning Kitchen

Any objections?

Doobs kinda blew you away. In for £100 either way, stars anyone?