UK General Election 2015

[arbboy]

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-pensioner-bets-30000-tories-5603568


Must have been on the buckfast

Shame he isn't 'well informed' enough to have a betfair account!!  Could have won £50k more for the same £30k investment.  Got to love these bookmaker pr men.  They do talk some shit.  Anyone ever tried to put £30k in £50 notes in an inside jacket pocket??

[DMorgan]

http://www.dontbeafuckingidiot.uk/

If you're a coalition fan or don't like swearing, don't click this.

Probably not entirely accurate but 5* for comedy value

[redsimon]

NicolaSturgeon is the most popular politician in Britain - in all regions, age groups, with both men and women

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/poll-shows-sturgeon-is-now-the-most-popular-politician-across-britain.124601616

Remember who was "more popular than Churchill" in 2010? Whatever happened to him

[The Baron]

The Milibland Brand move is excellent. Ofc it's full of shit but they're not appealing to the type of voter that's quibbling the numbers.

That sort of "subtle as a train wreck" move is precisely why Ed has come back and even more why Tory voters can't understand that he has.

[DMorgan]

The Milibland Brand move is excellent. Ofc it's full of shit but they're not appealing to the type of voter that's quibbling the numbers.

That sort of "subtle as a train wreck" move is precisely why Ed has come back and even more why Tory voters can't understand that he has.

Its a pretty big stretch imo to assert that 18-30 year old voters are less likely to quibble over numbers than any other age bracket

What percentage of the electorate would you say has done any independent research on the numbers ie going out of their way to check a range of sources for the same information or to have a look at ONS/OBR reports?

I'd snap the unders on 1%

[DMorgan]

Who said this in the commons to then chancellor Alastair Darling in 2009?

No other Chancellor in the long history of the office has felt the need to pass a law in order to convince people that he has the political will to implement his own Budget.

As one commentator observed this week, there are only two conclusions. Either the Chancellor has lost confidence in himself to stick to his resolution, and is, so to speak, asking the police to help him, or he fears that everyone else has lost confidence in his ability to keep his word, but hopes that they might believe in the statute book if not in him. Neither is much of a recommendation for the Chancellor of the day.

[StuartHopkin]

Daft question time....

What is the difference between a minority government and a coalition?

I thought there had to be a coalition to obtain the required number of seats to get in? 

[TightEnd]

Daft question time....

What is the difference between a minority government and a coalition?

I thought there had to be a coalition to obtain the required number of seats to get in? 

not necessarily

Coalition, formal agreement in which the smaller parties get cabinet seats etc and agree to work in government

minority government = no coalition, and the government asks for support on a case by case basis (or what is called confidence and supply) to enable them to get a majority of votes in the house

the magic figure, leaving out the speaker and sinn fein, is 323 to pass a vote in the house

the latter is especially complex. you would think it would lead to a lot of instability but maybe not as it is often not in the other parties interests to vote a government down

anyway all tbhis is why there is such focus on how parties can achieve groupings to get to 323

con + lib? doesn't look like it

lab+lib? maybe not

lab+snp? probably.......etc etgc

i will pop some links up in a while if you want to have a deeper look

[TightEnd]

Sunday Sunday

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

In 2010 Sun circulation 3,006,565. Latest 1,858,067 & website behind paywall

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

 Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

The 3.5% CON to LAB swing would just be enough to give LAB most seats even if all Scottish seats lost.

[TightEnd]

f only there was some sort of voting system that was "fairer" for the smaller parties?

Ukip 2nd preferences in the poll yesterday 52% Con, 22% Lab, 12% Greens

UKIP currently expected to get 3 seats on 14% of the vote

SNP currently expected to get 55 seats on 5% of the vote

takes about 1m votes to get a UKIP MP, and 20,000 to elect an SNP MP

(Constituency sizes, distribution of votes etc)

[TightEnd]

If Labour poll 33% (as per recent polling), Cameron needs 37%+ (>2010 vote). See pic. Tory bloc falls short 320-324.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

makes a Lib/tory pact look tougher to achieve

the "they wanted £12m of benefit cuts in 2012 but we stopped them" story

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:

CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)

Fieldwork 26th-28th April
N=1,010

this was described by the pollster as "a corker"

Poll trailers:

Tie to +2: "interesting"
+3/+4: "eye-opening"
+4/+5: "corker"
+6/+7: "narrative changer"
+8/+9: "fundamental realignment"