UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

this is a really good summary of the current situation

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2015/apr/30/tories-lead-the-contest-for-largest-party-but-ed-miliband-leads-the-race-to-no-10

[DungBeetle]

Tories getting pretty heavy support on the spreads.  Buy price 290 now.

[david3103]

Am I wrong in thinking that the more widespread the view that Labour will sell their soul to the SNP in order to govern the more likely it is that they fail to get the votes in the marginal seats in England?

[mulhuzz]

Am I wrong in thinking that the more widespread the view that Labour will sell their soul to the SNP in order to govern the more likely it is that they fail to get the votes in the marginal seats in England?

I think that's probably fair comment.

[DungBeetle]

Indeed - I think it's all the Tories have left weapon wise in this campaign.  Spread SNP "fear" to english voters in marginals.  Might be effective though - the Daily Mail are pushing this angle every single day at the moment.

[arbboy]

Am I wrong in thinking that the more widespread the view that Labour will sell their soul to the SNP in order to govern the more likely it is that they fail to get the votes in the marginal seats in England?

Yes spot on.  Whatever they say they have no choice but to sell their soul to the SNP otherwise they are 100/1 shots to gain power.  That's why Nicola S has a constant smile on her face.

[nirvana]

Seems like a fair/sensible tactic to me (if viewed from a Tory perspective)  in terms of trying to draw distinctions between centre (centre right) & left.

Although perhaps not true in the actualities I think the SNP have managed to paint themselves as quite a  bit more left wing than Labour. Hard to legitimately portray Labour as rabid socialists these days but easily possible to suggest there will be a more left wing Government than for 35 + years if, post the election, Labour does well in England and partners with the SNP.

Generally, 'left wing' has been successfully demonised over the last 40 years and hasn't been electable

[mulhuzz]

Am I wrong in thinking that the more widespread the view that Labour will sell their soul to the SNP in order to govern the more likely it is that they fail to get the votes in the marginal seats in England?

Yes spot on.  Whatever they say they have no choice but to sell their soul to the SNP otherwise they are 100/1 shots to gain power.  That's why Nicola S has a constant smile on her face.

I don't think they will form coalition though. Lab minority with supply and confidence looks most likely.

So get ready for the most unproductive parliament in history....yay. \o/

[TightEnd]

Miliband is a 59/41 favourite to become PM, despite recent polls.

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-odds-miliband-is-a-5941-favourite-to-become-pm-despite-recent-polls/ …

[TightEnd]

[TightEnd]

"You have to go back to 1924 to come up with the last time the head of the largest party was not Prime Minister, and they were very unusual circumstances in which the largest party (the Conservatives) had effectively lost a vote of confidence. Indeed I’ve tried to go back even further in history to find another example of this situation and I can’t – answers on a postcard please!

The markets are taking a position which flies in the face of historical precedent; that’s the kind of decision that might be called “brave and courageous” in Yes Minister.

This lends greater weight to its predictive value – the market is clearly aware that Miliband is unlikely to win more seats than Cameron, or many more than Brown did in 2010. And yet he is expected to dethrone Cameron – because of the SNP. A formal deal is considered unlikely, with only about a 7 per cent probability in the market."

[TightEnd]

"If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble"

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/30/if-other-polls-show-lab-only-retaining-63-of-2010-party-voters-then-they-are-in-trouble/

[ripple11]

FWIW "White Dee" (Benefits Street) was asked the Snog/Marry/Avoid question on the radio yesterday......

Snog Clegg
Marry Cameron

...."and run a mile from Miliband"!

[ripple11]

Tories getting pretty heavy support on the spreads.  Buy price 290 now.

Maybe they read this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11573434/David-Cameron-is-still-on-course-for-Downing-Street.html

[redsimon]

Tories getting pretty heavy support on the spreads.  Buy price 290 now.

Maybe they read this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11573434/David-Cameron-is-still-on-course-for-Downing-Street.html

Dan Hodges lol

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Hodges