Football betting thread

[redarmi]

Hi guys, I've been lurking this forum for a little while having been introduced to it by a couple posters on this site (Adam Picken and Dan Morgan), haven't posted before mainly because I haven't felt like I've had anything worthy to contribute (at least betting wise)! However I was having a look at premier league relegation odds after reading Redarmis post on the emporium and Leicester at 4/1 to be relegated struck me as nice. Although Leicester have scored 11 goals this season (not a high amount tho more at the moment than most of the other relegation "candidates"), they have only managed 87 attempts at goal this season putting them 4th bottom for this statistic. The teams below them are AVL (last 77) and HUL and SWA (both 85). BRN have had 108 attempts - tho of these attempts LEI have had 13 "big chances" compared to BRN 7 (HUL6 AVL 5 SWA 16 QPR 14 SUN 8 CPL 13 WBA 11 STO 10). Defensively, Leicester have conceded the 3rd most shorts inside the box out of anyone ( HUL 91 QPR 82 LEI 80 BRN 78 SWA 73 TOT 73), and the most shots outside the box (LEI 79 HUL 74 SUN 69 SWA 61 CPL 59 STO 59), putting them second bottom (ahead of HUL) for total shots conceded. They are also joint 3rd worst for "big chances" conceded (NEW 20 TOT 19 LEI 18 QPR 18 EVE 17 MCI 17 LIV 17 SUN 14), level with QPR and a fair way behind the other relegation contenders. I know this doesn't tell the whole story, but compared with the available odds I think there has to be value in this as WBA to be relegated can be found at the highest price of 3/1 (How they are favoured to be relegated over LEI I don't know), and QPR (LEI are only 1 point ahead of them) are 10/11. I can only think that the 5-3 win away against Man United has still clouded the bookies judgement.

I hope you guys find this useful whether you decided to punt on it or not - some thoughts/arguments would of course also be welcome! Also hope this is in the right thread:) GL!

Interesting post.  I started out the season really liking Leicester and I tipped them up a few times including, I think, when they beat MU but the more I look at them now the more I think you are right.  Even that game against MU wasn't all it was cracked up to be and it really felt like United's defence threw it away.   They certainly are going to need to improve if they are going to survive.

[TightEnd]

Teams have worked Leicester out (as someone who has watched them live six times so far this season)

early on, we played "top six" teams who came onto us

we sat back, usually with no more than 35% of possession in these games

played on the counter, lots of pace out wide and early service into Ulloa

this worked best in the infamous Man U game where Man U showed astonishing tactical naivety, with 3 at the back playing a very high line, no holding midfield cover and we got in behind and caught them repeatedly

Inevitably at that point teams see how we play. By the time we had 8 points from 6 games we then went to Palace away

Even at home they defended much deeper, there was no room in behind. When the wide players got the ball they were double marked. This is a characteristic of Warnock teams, he does his reaseach and tries to take away your strengths first..then think about playing themselves  

We created nothing, as the central midfielders are not box to box/get in front of the top two players, they tend to play in front of the defence. Looks nice, but the play is slow to develop and you can't break sides down when they are defending deeper

we were burgled out of of three points at home to Burnley

then went to Newcastle and Swansea. Same story. they defend deep, cut the service to the wide men, reduce any opportunities to play on the counter

we create nothing, ulloa's goals dry up and of course we are always going to concede one or two.


So, is it terminal? No, we need to adjust

Vardy is wasted out wide, play him up with Ulloa

Nugent isn't required playing in behind Ulloa, doesn't create anything

go back to 4-4-2

you can't play cambiasso in a midfield two (which is why we have been playing three) so you have, in January to look at adding a player of the style of Shelvey, Schneiderlin, Noble, Nolan...the sort of midfielder that can create at one end and sit in front of the back four at the other when required, probably from a continental league

our midfielders are too one dimensional  


ultimately, i think and hope there are three worse teams in the division than us. Burnley, Sunderland loomk to be two of them

4-1 is a fair price though, given our recent form and challenges to our style.

[TightEnd]

Teams have worked Leicester out (as someone who has watched them live six times so far this season)

early on, we played "top six" teams who came onto us

we sat back, usually with no more than 35% of possession in these games

played on the counter, lots of pace out wide and early service into Ulloa

this worked best in the infamous Man U game where Man U showed astonishing tactical naivety, with 3 at the back playing a very high line, no holding midfield cover and we got in behind and caught them repeatedly

Inevitably at that point teams see how we play. By the time we had 8 points from 6 games we then went to Palace away

Even at home they defended much deeper, there was no room in behind. When the wide players got the ball they were double marked. This is a characteristic of Warnock teams, he does his reaseach and tries to take away your strengths first..then think about playing themselves 

We created nothing, as the central midfielders are not box to box/get in front of the top two players, they tend to play in front of the defence. Looks nice, but the play is slow to develop and you can't break sides down when they are defending deeper

we were burgled out of of three points at home to Burnley

then went to Newcastle and Swansea. Same story. they defend deep, cut the service to the wide men, reduce any opportunities to play on the counter

we create nothing, ulloa's goals dry up and of course we are always going to concede one or two.


So, is it terminal? No, we need to adjust

Vardy is wasted out wide, play him up with Ulloa

Nugent isn't required playing in behind Ulloa, doesn't create anything

go back to 4-4-2

you can't play cambiasso in a midfield two (which is why we have been playing three) so you have, in January to look at adding a player of the style of Shelvey, Schneiderlin, Noble, Nolan...the sort of midfielder that can create at one end and sit in front of the back four at the other when required, probably from a continental league

our midfielders are too one dimensional 


ultimately, i think and hope there are three worse teams in the division than us. Burnley, Sunderland loomk to be two of them

4-1 is a fair price though, given our recent form and challenges to our style.

this happened again today

4 central midfielders picked, in what i assumed was a diamond

but no, flat middle 4 with two square pegs in round holes wide

created nothing, and what we tried to create developed so slowly in front to off the opposituion back four that it was easy to defend

mahrez, a class creative player, not even brought on from the bench

kncokaert, schlupp, albrighton, all of whom have their faults but all are either tricky and/or quick not even in the matchday 18

afterwards Pearson claimed we were unlucky, which we weren't

He has merely picked the wrong team and style four games on the trot. Appears too stubborn to want to change it

Southampton away next

[exstream]

One for me today Sevilla draw no bet at 2.2

[DropTheHammer]

BetVictor instabet is offering Aguero or Van Persie FGS at 3/1 which seems good value. £20 max.

[nuros]

Was surprised to see Chelsea above evens everywhere away at Liverpool this saturday. They both have Champions League during the week - Liv away at R Madrid on Tues Che away at Maribor on Weds (Slovenia 2hr(ish) flight) - I suppose giving Liverpool a marginal advantage unless they are destroyed (again) by Madrid when the loss of confidence will surely offset the gain of an extra days preparation. Chelseas last two away games vs "big" sides (Man U + City) ended in 1-1 draws granted but with the form liverpool are in and still no sturridge I can't really see past a Chelsea win and was expecting them to be as low as 4/6 in places. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Am I just completely wrong? It's not like it's just a few bookies everyone has them above evens (up to 23/20).. Thanks, hope you all had a good weekend, mainly thanks to Adz and Tal I did tyty:)

[nuros]

Following on from last post I forgot to mention also that Chelsea don't really need to focus as much on their CL game as they are practically through and vs a side they should beat comfortably whilst resting some of their first XI, this is definitely not the case for Liverpool (Tho granted even if they lose to Madrid they still have a chance of qualification).

[nuros]

Well the midweek ucl games kinda went the nut low for chelsea vs liverpool so I suppose that bet doesn't have so much value afterall!

[RickBFA]

Had a look at Saturday's games. On these so far :

Barnsley v Burton

I've backed Burton at 15/4.

Barnsley are very inconsistent and have a number of loan players who may not play.

Burton have won 2 out of their last 3 away games. I think almost 4/1 is value.


Bury v Hemel Hempstead

I like Bury -2 goals at 19/10.

They are missing Tom Soares but are very strong at home and should win comfortably.


Sheff Wed v Rotherham

Unfortunately (as a Wednesday fan) we have lost our way recently, performances have been poor and their continues to be little threat up front. We signed Taylor Fletcher on loan from Leicester but he only played small parts in games so far. We set up with one upfront in midweek and were no match for Bournemouth.

This is Rotherham's cup final. Evans will have them up for it and they will relish the chance to get one over on their local neighbours.

I like Rotherham at 13/5.

[superwomble]

Have Burton just lost their manager?

[superwomble]

Have Burton just lost their manager?

[RickBFA]

Have Burton just lost their manager?

Yes they have. Could be a negative. They haven't appointed anyone else yet either.

[baldock92]

Newcastle win and both teams to score + Spurs-Stoke draw

Double @ 24/1

[DropTheHammer]

Coral have quite a good promotion on; bet £20 on any football match at 1.5 or better and get a free bet every your selected player scores in an international or premier league match.

Last week I picked Aguero and got two £5 free bets, this week it's internationals and I've plumped for Shurrle to help destroy Gibraltar...so he better start!

[RickBFA]

Had 2 singles today.

On Notts County at Coventry. On them at 11/4, still think Notts County are underrated, expected them to be shorter than 11/4.

Pinched Chompy's suggested bet on Walsall to beat Peterborough at 9/5 as well.