The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[PokerBroker]

Rather than typing up all the examples from the book I am currently reading I done some googling and found this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioural_Insights_Team

In isolation some of the ideas just sound like common sense, and you wonder why things would have ever have been done differently.  There are no doubt other things on the go that are inspired from BIT that are more cynical/crass that we don't know of.   There just must be. 

This piece also appeared in the guardian.  http://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2015/jul/23/rise-nudge-unit-politicians-human-behaviour

I think we have known for many years about the buying psychology and there is no doubt that the supermarkets spend massive sums on planning shop layouts and such in order to get consumers spending more, even sales training/techniques are now derived from this.  Many retailers/salesmen don't do the whole Feature and Benefit show now, consumers are much more in control. 

I rmember also around the time of the Scottish Referendum there were issues with the wording of the question.  Was this changed as the result of input by anyone involved at BIT?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21245701

Reading this stuff, I am wishing I'd studied psychology.  I find it fascinating.  I touched on psychology at University and was never really in one camp or the other back then.

The role that this seems to play in politics and the fact this has been so well backed by the UK/US Governments has my mind doing all sorts of somersaults. 

[TightEnd]

so remain has gone to a 70% shot on betting markets are the EU deal overnight

meanwhile, the leave campaign attempts to look credible

If Leave want to win, they need a spokesman who looks like a more plausible PM figure than Cameron.

you really couldn't make it up

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

As the polls spell doom for Labour, do Corbyn or his opponents have a plan?

http://bit.ly/1QJK8ca

[TightEnd]

The Ladbrokes' EU Betting Swingometer has just swung in favour of REMAIN - now a 69% chance.

http://ow.ly/Yxqcm

[TightEnd]

Deal done – and combined with LEAVE's Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/deal-done-and-combined-with-leaves-galloway-error-of-judgment-it-might-be-enough/

[PokerBroker]

As the polls spell doom for Labour, do Corbyn or his opponents have a plan?

http://bit.ly/1QJK8ca

Didn't the same pollsters get the last election spectacularly wrong and also the recent by-election in Oldham West?  I'm very sceptical of polls. 

[TightEnd]

As the polls spell doom for Labour, do Corbyn or his opponents have a plan?

http://bit.ly/1QJK8ca

Didn't the same pollsters get the last election spectacularly wrong and also the recent by-election in Oldham West?  I'm very sceptical of polls. 

they weren't wrong by 12%

if anything they under-estimated the shy tory effect again in may 2015, they over-estimated the left wing vote

there were no published polls for Oldham west, a rare by-election without any in the month beforehand

therefore any expectations were "in the dark"

[Woodsey]

Let's see which way Boris goes, the betting will change a lot if he goes for out.....

[DMorgan]

Boris seems to be a pretty shrewd guy, I'd imagine he'll look at the dregs that he'd have to somehow band together to gain enough traction to get the Out campaign over the line that he'll decide that this isn't a good spot to try to be the hero.

Edit: Once all of the big business interests pile into the Stay campaign too it could be a media bloodbath for the Outers. Trying to talk myself out of taking a lump of the ~1.4 on bf

[TightEnd]

exactly this

there was a big move last night from 1.8 to 1.4 in two stages. cameron got a deal done, then the galloway news

i don't get the leave campaign at all (even if i want to support it). three groups who hate each other and those in the main one you put up farage and galloway, together, and invite the press

complete madness. if you don't hate farage, you'll hate galloway. could you have picked two more divisive figures?

just look like a complete bunch of chancers, railed against cameron (you may dislike him but at least he's prime ministerial), most of centre-field politics and big business

not a hope , and boris with an eye on 2020 onwards will go for the long term view

[MintTrav]

Click to see full-size image.

A bit more credible, even if they can't plan the positioning of six signatures.

They may have more real status than Farage & Galloway, but the general public will only recognise Gove and IDS, who both have a poor public image.

[MintTrav]

Britain's future in Europe lies in the hands of the Labour party - Andrew Rawnsley

"David Cameron faces the most severe challenge of his career and only Labour can solve it for him...........This under-appreciated twist in the referendum plot puts the prime minister in the deliciously ironic position of looking to Labour to save him from the wishes of much of his own party."

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-labour-tories

[DaveShoelace]

So does Britain want to remain a skin on the iPoker network, or does it want to be Sky Poker, is the way I understand it.

[EvilPie]

Seeing as this looks like it's happening I guess I should pay it some form of attention....

Is there somewhere I can see a long list of pros and cons? Preferably a list that is actually true or at least easy enough to pick out the lies.

[Woodsey]

No idea, I guess maybe some articles will appear in time.

Just read Goves statement with his reasons for out, I will keep reading stuff like this as we go along for both sides. I'm always suspicious of people that post 'balanced' stuff, it's usually just articles that agrees with their opinion.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/michael-gove-why-im-backing-leave/