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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2181004 times)
SuperJez
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« Reply #22560 on: December 12, 2019, 05:31:05 PM »

Gonna stick with my prediction on a Tory majority

The betting exchanges have shown this as clearly the most likely outcome for a while, trading in a range of 1.27-1.40.  Something is happening though, its gradually been slipping all day and is now trading at 1.61 on betfair. Are people trading with some inside knowledge from turnout/postal votes or is it just noise?
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horseplayer
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« Reply #22561 on: December 12, 2019, 05:31:58 PM »

Gonna stick with my prediction on a Tory majority

The betting exchanges have shown this as clearly the most likely outcome for a while, trading in a range of 1.27-1.40.  Something is happening though, its gradually been slipping all day and is now trading at 1.61 on betfair. Are people trading with some inside knowledge from turnout/postal votes or is it just noise?

price is not going to move on just noise

looking forward to the old tory cronies moaning about the tactical voting being unfair when no overall later
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arbboy
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« Reply #22562 on: December 12, 2019, 05:33:41 PM »

Exit poll results will already be leaking.  Interesting night ahead
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ripple11
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« Reply #22563 on: December 12, 2019, 06:08:57 PM »

Sporting Index

We've revised our total Labour party seats for #GeneralElection2019 to 224-230, more than 10 higher than at the start of the week.
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arbboy
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« Reply #22564 on: December 12, 2019, 06:31:57 PM »

Second quiz/guess up for the night for a bit of interest after Tighty's one for charity.   What do people think will be the closest result in any seat in terms of majority?   The closest seat last time was won by 2 votes fwiw.

My guess would be 25
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SuperJez
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« Reply #22565 on: December 12, 2019, 06:42:59 PM »

Second quiz/guess up for the night for a bit of interest after Tighty's one for charity.   What do people think will be the closest result in any seat in terms of majority?   The closest seat last time was won by 2 votes fwiw.

My guess would be 25

I'll say 4 votes, but when its that close there is always a recount and they get different numbers from each one  Grin
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SuperJez
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« Reply #22566 on: December 12, 2019, 06:43:18 PM »

Sporting Index

We've revised our total Labour party seats for #GeneralElection2019 to 224-230, more than 10 higher than at the start of the week.

Interesting, something defo happening.
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ripple11
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« Reply #22567 on: December 12, 2019, 06:52:42 PM »

Could the headline tomorrow be "Brexit party screw up Brexit" ?

It feels tighter than the polls predict.......and maybe those Brexit votes are going to stop enough seats turning blue on the red wall.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #22568 on: December 12, 2019, 06:55:27 PM »

I’m wondering how much of the move away from the Tories is simply due to the queues of young people this morning, thinking it indicated a Labour surge, when it could just be people not fancying going to vote in the dark after work.
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ripple11
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« Reply #22569 on: December 12, 2019, 07:07:17 PM »

 Chief Exec of Ipsos MORI, (who are doing the Exit Poll for everyone tonight) when asked on twitter about the latest "youthquake"

And much as I love
@Twitter
 it is about as representative of the electorate as just doing polling in Hackney...


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SuperJez
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« Reply #22570 on: December 12, 2019, 07:15:00 PM »

That will be why the Tories got shorter again then.  He can't possibly be giving anything away though.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #22571 on: December 12, 2019, 07:17:36 PM »

Anyone with access to the exit poll data is locked away in a room without their phones.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #22572 on: December 12, 2019, 07:20:00 PM »

The pound has lost a cent against the Euro today - but then again, early indications on Brexit day from the currency markets were wrong as well
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SuperJez
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« Reply #22573 on: December 12, 2019, 07:23:52 PM »

Conflicting news on twitter.

Quote
Have some bad news for Labour, apparently very close in Redcar, 9k Labour majority in 2017, Tories may have taken it.

https://twitter.com/IwanDoherty98/status/1205203003185287169
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ripple11
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« Reply #22574 on: December 12, 2019, 07:58:36 PM »

Sky TV Australia!.....

Tory insiders are telling me Boris Johnson could “genuinely be in trouble in #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip”.

Exit pollsters think the Lib Dem vote has collapsed there probably due to tactical voting for Labour.🚨

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