The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[DaveShoelace]

Much as I don't like it, I think Remain have to do a fear based campaign. It's hard to sell the virtues of doing the thing we've been doing for a generation as if its anything other than business as usual, so they are right to be reminding us what we would lose IMO.

Now the Out campaign should be doing the opposite, they should be selling a picture of how much rosier life would be on our own. They haven't, they've sold us fear on the presumption that something horrible is just around the corner. That's where they've lost me, which is a shame because this issue was the one where I was at my most receptive to hear both sides of the argument and I could have been swayed with a well argued promise of a British Utopia with Boris sipping tea wearing a bowler hat at whatnot.

[Doobs]

We are drip fed fear tactics from the remain side in the EU debate almost daily.

Osbourne is the latest.

The 18% drop in house price line really is scraping the fear barrel.

It would be good to have a decent debate without this bullshit.

A real shame that the different out groups couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.

And the out campaign tell blatant lies

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-andrew-marr-uk-veto-tory-minister-accused-of-flat-out-lying-over-turkey-joining-the-a7041956.html

She should be sacked.

I think both sides have run very poor, constantly negative campaigns. Remain are well organised but the playing on the fear factor constantly instead of the benefits are grating.

The out campaign may have lied but then the line that house prices will drop 18% because of Brexit is hardly based on any "fact". Its total nonsense and Osborne knows it. Disingenuous at best.

It would be good to see the positive arguments for staying and going. Instead we see constant negative tactics.

It isn't total nonsense at all.  There is bound to be a slowdown to the economy just caused by the fact that people will be diverted from their normal.jobs to deal with the forced changes brought about by the exit.  I'd have thought a recession for a couple of quarters was almost inevitable.  This is all before we start writing new laws, negotiating new trade agreements etc.  Many people are going to be overwhelmed and temporary contractors from here and overseas are going to make hay at the expense of the civil service and big business. 

 The out campaign are either told thick to realise this or the ones telling lies. The "benefits" of out can only come some time down the line.  So they should honestly say there is going to be some disruption and a possible recession in the short term, but we gain in the long run due to the loss of the bloated EU and the ability to choose better immigrants.  Whether that is true or both is up for debate, but denying a short term economic shock is clearly ludicrous.

What I would accept is that putting a number as accurate as 18% on the house price fall is very much plucking a number out of the air. 

[The Camel]

Much as I don't like it, I think Remain have to do a fear based campaign. It's hard to sell the virtues of doing the thing we've been doing for a generation as if its anything other than business as usual, so they are right to be reminding us what we would lose IMO.

Now the Out campaign should be doing the opposite, they should be selling a picture of how much rosier life would be on our own. They haven't, they've sold us fear on the presumption that something horrible is just around the corner. That's where they've lost me, which is a shame because this issue was the one where I was at my most receptive to hear both sides of the argument and I could have been swayed with a well argued promise of a British Utopia with Boris sipping tea wearing a bowler hat at whatnot.

This is a very good post and illustrates how politics has changed over the last 30 years.

Post war, politics was about selling the dream, whether it be full employment, a strong NHS, people owning their own homes or whatever if you vote for us

Now it's the politics of fear, threatening huge immigration, benefits scroungers, falling house prices etc if you vote against us.

[RickBFA]

We are drip fed fear tactics from the remain side in the EU debate almost daily.

Osbourne is the latest.

The 18% drop in house price line really is scraping the fear barrel.

It would be good to have a decent debate without this bullshit.

A real shame that the different out groups couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.

And the out campaign tell blatant lies

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-andrew-marr-uk-veto-tory-minister-accused-of-flat-out-lying-over-turkey-joining-the-a7041956.html

She should be sacked.

I think both sides have run very poor, constantly negative campaigns. Remain are well organised but the playing on the fear factor constantly instead of the benefits are grating.

The out campaign may have lied but then the line that house prices will drop 18% because of Brexit is hardly based on any "fact". Its total nonsense and Osborne knows it. Disingenuous at best.

It would be good to see the positive arguments for staying and going. Instead we see constant negative tactics.

It isn't total nonsense at all.  There is bound to be a slowdown to the economy just caused by the fact that people will be diverted from their normal.jobs to deal with the forced changes brought about by the exit.  I'd have thought a recession for a couple of quarters was almost inevitable.  This is all before we start writing new laws, negotiating new trade agreements etc.  Many people are going to be overwhelmed and temporary contractors from here and overseas are going to make hay at the expense of the civil service and big business. 

 The out campaign are either told thick to realise this or the ones telling lies. The "benefits" of out can only come some time down the line.  So they should honestly say there is going to be some disruption and a possible recession in the short term, but we gain in the long run due to the loss of the bloated EU and the ability to choose better immigrants.  Whether that is true or both is up for debate, but denying a short term economic shock is clearly ludicrous.

What I would accept is that putting a number as accurate as 18% on the house price fall is very much plucking a number out of the air. 

The reason I think its bollocks, is that the Remain campaign are taking the worst case in their worst projections and portraying it as more possible than it really is.

The other reason why 18% fall in house prices is not going to happen is the level of demand for housing vs supply.

Even in the global financial meltdown, I don't think house price deflation dropped to 18% in that year.

You would need an impact as strong as the biggest worldwide financial crisis to see drops like that. Brexit may cause short term problems but its impact would be nowhere on the scale that Cameron/Osborne are trying to make us believe.

[david3103]

People talk about house prices falling as though it's a bad thing.

For sure there will be an impact, but unless you already own a house and have a silly mortgage why is it so bad to see house prices drop to a more affordable level? Wasn't over-valued property a partial cause of the last financial crisis? Along with the push to fund it via unaffordable loans of course.

[AndrewT]

People talk about house prices falling as though it's a bad thing.

For sure there will be an impact, but unless you already own a house and have a silly mortgage why is it so bad to see house prices drop to a more affordable level? Wasn't over-valued property a partial cause of the last financial crisis? Along with the push to fund it via unaffordable loans of course.

The thing with house prices is that it's a polarising issue with zero middle ground - either you're not a homeowner and are paying extortionate rent with a home out of financial reach, or you are a homeowner and have it forming a huge amount of your personal equity (many many people put money into houses rather than pensions).

Successive governments have done everything to protect the homeowners by keeping the house market bubble going (as homeowners are more  likely to vote than renters, as renters are more likely to be younger and also move about a bit more, and the electoral register is based on your registered address).

This is why new home building is always talked of as something that should happen (but never does) and why governments talk tough on immigration (but do nothing about it).

[david3103]

People talk about house prices falling as though it's a bad thing.

For sure there will be an impact, but unless you already own a house and have a silly mortgage why is it so bad to see house prices drop to a more affordable level? Wasn't over-valued property a partial cause of the last financial crisis? Along with the push to fund it via unaffordable loans of course.

The thing with house prices is that it's a polarising issue with zero middle ground - either you're not a homeowner and are paying extortionate rent with a home out of financial reach, or you are a homeowner and have it forming a huge amount of your personal equity (many many people put money into houses rather than pensions).

Successive governments have done everything to protect the homeowners by keeping the house market bubble going (as homeowners are more  likely to vote than renters, as renters are more likely to be younger and also move about a bit more, and the electoral register is based on your registered address).

This is why new home building is always talked of as something that should happen (but never does) and why governments talk tough on immigration (but do nothing about it).

I'm a homeowner, I have two in fact, and will eventually have three, but if the values of them fell by 18% it wouldn't impact on my life at all. It might help my children though, and others of their generation.

Edit to add the point that pre financial crisis I had a significant number of RBS shares acquired during my career with a subsidiary. I saw £100,000 turned into £500. That stung, but it made me view things differently.

[TightEnd]

People talk about house prices falling as though it's a bad thing.

For sure there will be an impact, but unless you already own a house and have a silly mortgage why is it so bad to see house prices drop to a more affordable level? Wasn't over-valued property a partial cause of the last financial crisis? Along with the push to fund it via unaffordable loans of course.

Andrew got there before me

it's a bad thing for people who vote (by and large) compared to those who don't vote, esecially those who vote conservative (by and large) and blocks in the system (planning, land ownership, regs) mean that the combination of politics and economics make it a very tough thing for a government to change.

all started a generation or two ago and never did to the same extent on the continent where renting for the long term has always been a staple of their ecomony

[nirvana]

Interesting this stuff about house prices and make everybody right.

Cynical from Osborne at best to get some shift potentially in the demographic most likely to vote

Next Brexit ad should focus on convincing the young that if they believe the Chancellor is right they should vote out so that house prices fall for a while.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref, certain voters): REMAIN 55 (+4) LEAVE 42 (-3)

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

the betting moves to remain, now an 84% chance on betfair

Click to see full-size image.

meanwhile the suggestion is that with a month to go leave will concentrate on the immigration angle because it is unable to win on economics. all polls and surveys say that people regard economic risk as the main problem with "vote leave"

[DaveShoelace]

the betting moves to remain, now an 84% chance on betfair

Click to see full-size image.

meanwhile the suggestion is that with a month to go leave will concentrate on the immigration angle because it is unable to win on economics. all polls and surveys say that people regard economic risk as the main problem with "vote leave"

I'm surprised immigration hasn't been used sooner as the 'nuclear option' for Vote Leave (and likewise calling a vote to leave racist for Vote Remain). I guess we have a very nasty divisive month coming up on both sides.

[Pinchop73]

it is unable to win on economics. all polls and surveys say that people regard economic risk as the main problem with "vote leave"

One of the remain campaigns' strongest hands is that the UK will be worse off due to having to renegotiate trade deals. I believe the countries within and outside of the EU are bricking themselves that Brexit might happen, they fear loosing one of the largest slices of their pie. We are in such an envious position to enter into trade deals. We hold the equity.

[Doobs]

it is unable to win on economics. all polls and surveys say that people regard economic risk as the main problem with "vote leave"

One of the remain campaigns' strongest hands is that the UK will be worse off due to having to renegotiate trade deals. I believe the countries within and outside of the EU are bricking themselves that Brexit might happen, they fear loosing one of the largest slices of their pie. We are in such an envious position to enter into trade deals. We hold the equity.

Losing one trading partner doesn't seem particularly disastrous, losing 50% of your overseas trade deals does?  Surely we will be the ones in the distressed position and not those that we are negotiating with.  Why would the people of the Netherlands be envious?  They have all their trade deals in place barring one.   

[nirvana]

it is unable to win on economics. all polls and surveys say that people regard economic risk as the main problem with "vote leave"

One of the remain campaigns' strongest hands is that the UK will be worse off due to having to renegotiate trade deals. I believe the countries within and outside of the EU are bricking themselves that Brexit might happen, they fear loosing one of the largest slices of their pie. We are in such an envious position to enter into trade deals. We hold the equity.

Losing one trading partner doesn't seem particularly disastrous, losing 50% of your overseas trade deals does?  Surely we will be the ones in the distressed position and not those that we are negotiating with.  Why would the people of the Netherlands be envious?  They have all their trade deals in place barring one.   

Understand this point but why wouldnt all other nations just say 'let's carry on as we are'. Genuine question and probably academic I guess