The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[DaveShoelace]

Has anyone outlined what would be the 'standard' situation for EU citizen currently living here if #Brexit happened? Both those working and those not?

Not sure I've seen anyone actually address that.

[Doobs]

Has anyone outlined what would be the 'standard' situation for EU citizen currently living here if #Brexit happened? Both those working and those not?

Not sure I've seen anyone actually address that.

I am no expert, but...

I assume that there would be no immediate change, as their rights will be part of our laws.  What happens after depends on what we change our laws too and that depends on what the conservatives think they should be and not on what Farage thinks they should be. 

Thinking about this, it will likely be our citizens overseas that are affected first.  They will become non-EU citizens pretty quickly and are likely to lose their right to work in the EU.  I assume most foreign laws will give rights to EU citizens rather than rights to people specifically from here.  This could be a bad assumption. 

[david3103]

We've heard a lot about the horrors of leaving the EU, how we would be taking a step in the dark. How peace in Europe would end. How we will be suffer an 18% fall in house prices (actually, the forecast didn't say that, it said that house prices would be 18% lower if we left than they would have been had we stayed)

We haven't heard much about the risks of staying, the potential downside to committing to stay in a relationship with a group of countries whose interests are not our interests.
We will be committed to supporting those countries that have been shoehorned into the Eurozone. Committed to a systematic increase in the centralisation of power.
Committed to remain within a flawed system and to spend our time and political capital attempting to reform it, and failing.

[Jon MW]

Has anyone outlined what would be the 'standard' situation for EU citizen currently living here if #Brexit happened? Both those working and those not?

Not sure I've seen anyone actually address that.

I am no expert, but...

I assume that there would be no immediate change, as their rights will be part of our laws.  What happens after depends on what we change our laws too and that depends on what the conservatives think they should be and not on what Farage thinks they should be. 

Thinking about this, it will likely be our citizens overseas that are affected first.  They will become non-EU citizens pretty quickly and are likely to lose their right to work in the EU.  I assume most foreign laws will give rights to EU citizens rather than rights to people specifically from here.  This could be a bad assumption. 

We won't be leaving the EU shortly after the vote if the vote goes that way.

I think the process would be that all the various treaty's would be renegotiated for us outside the EU - then we would leave and they would come into effect straight away.

I'd guess if exit won then we'd be leaving the EU around 2020 - so I'd assume plenty of time for all sides to adapt.

[TightEnd]

this was part of the electoral commission submission to court asking for extensions to the time limits for impending court cases

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

here is a longer term perspective of brexit bookies odds

unchanged on the cameron sky interview last night. anyone see it?

[TightEnd]

another view

[TightEnd]

A shift towards Brexit? Don't bet on it:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/06/shift-towards-brexit-dont-bet-it …

[neeko]

Has anyone outlined what would be the 'standard' situation for EU citizen currently living here if #Brexit happened? Both those working and those not?

Not sure I've seen anyone actually address that.

I am no expert, but...

I assume that there would be no immediate change, as their rights will be part of our laws.  What happens after depends on what we change our laws too and that depends on what the conservatives think they should be and not on what Farage thinks they should be. 

Thinking about this, it will likely be our citizens overseas that are affected first.  They will become non-EU citizens pretty quickly and are likely to lose their right to work in the EU.  I assume most foreign laws will give rights to EU citizens rather than rights to people specifically from here.  This could be a bad assumption. 

We won't be leaving the EU shortly after the vote if the vote goes that way.

I think the process would be that all the various treaty's would be renegotiated for us outside the EU - then we would leave and they would come into effect straight away.

I'd guess if exit won then we'd be leaving the EU around 2020 - so I'd assume plenty of time for all sides to adapt.

2020 is basically the earliest that the UK could leave (EU budgets are planned over 7 years and this current lot end in 2020 - I'd guess negotiations have already started for the next one). A section 50 leaving of the U.K. Requires a two year delay anyway.

The U.K. Will have an general election in 2020 - imagine the mess caused by a pro remain coalition of labour, lib dem and SNP winning that following a leave vote.  Or Conservative party win with Boris as leader following a remain.

[TightEnd]

some more classics from the ashcroft focus groups

this time in leamington and north london

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-camerons-background-boriss-motives-and-immigration-my-eu-focus-groups-in-leamington-and-london.html

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

"Who would you like to hear from who has yet to weigh in?

“The Queen, but I don’t think she’s allowed to.”

“Tony Benn. But he’s dead.”

“Russell Brand. He wrote a book, didn’t he, about revolution.”

“Yeah, but he told everyone to vote Labour. I thought he was credible until he did that.”"

[doubleup]

We've heard a lot about the horrors of leaving the EU, how we would be taking a step in the dark. How peace in Europe would end. How we will be suffer an 18% fall in house prices (actually, the forecast didn't say that, it said that house prices would be 18% lower if we left than they would have been had we stayed)

We haven't heard much about the risks of staying, the potential downside to committing to stay in a relationship with a group of countries whose interests are not our interests.
We will be committed to supporting those countries that have been shoehorned into the Eurozone. Committed to a systematic increase in the centralisation of power.
Committed to remain within a flawed system and to spend our time and political capital attempting to reform it, and failing.

We no longer have "interests" in the sense of the average citizen.  The government will look after the interests of the powerful in our society.  This won't change whether we are in or out.

 

[TightEnd]

worrying or encouraging depending on your view

Just 47% of 18-24 year olds say they will definitely vote in EUref compared to 80% of those aged 65 or older

http://electoral-reform.org.uk/press-release/poll-%E2%80%98stark%E2%80%99-generation-gap-eu-referendum-persists-say-campaigners

[MintTrav]

We've heard a lot about the horrors of leaving the EU, how we would be taking a step in the dark. How peace in Europe would end. How we will be suffer an 18% fall in house prices (actually, the forecast didn't say that, it said that house prices would be 18% lower if we left than they would have been had we stayed)

We haven't heard much about the risks of staying, the potential downside to committing to stay in a relationship with a group of countries whose interests are not our interests.
We will be committed to supporting those countries that have been shoehorned into the Eurozone. Committed to a systematic increase in the centralisation of power.
Committed to remain within a flawed system and to spend our time and political capital attempting to reform it, and failing.

Although you have the opposite view to me on this subject, David, it is good to see real issues presented, whether I agree with them or not. Going through your points:

Peace in Europe - I believe there is a real risk of Europe regressing to war in the medium term if the EU were to disintegrate. I don't mean a continent-wide war, but more localised disputes escalating into military outcomes. The EU resolves a hell of a lot of conflict all the time (okay, it causes some of the conflict, but not most of it).

House Prices - I agree, exaggerated predictions are unhelpful. It is very difficult to predict this stuff and I don't believe there is solid evidence for the forecast. Osborne has missed every short and medium-term forecast he has ever set (wasn't the deficit supposed to be gone by now?), so I wouldn't trust a word he says.

Their interests are not our interests - partly true. It is true for some issues, and countries in different regions or at different stages of development will pull in opposite directions. Our interests are much closer on the big issues like climate change, terrorism, international crime, dealing with super-powers and multi-nationals. Improvements in health, safety, workers' rights, employment equality, anti-discrimination, food-labelling, and on and on are good for all of us - even when they are happening in other countries who joined later and are catching up, it is still good for us.

Supporting poorer countries - isn't that a big part of what it's all about, trying to bring them up to our level? The Euro is just one political/economic decision (an important one), which may improve or unimprove countries' positions, depending on how you see it, but it is not the main factor. The East European countries were all poor before they joined. Some were better than others, but they were all paupers compared with us. Now, most of them have improved dramatically and are catching up. It is very pleasant to go on holiday in most of them now, which it wasn't before. This is good for us too. Isn't it better for Europe as a whole to become wealthy than to have massive disparity? With the constraints that the USSR imposed now gone, continued poverty in Eastern Europe would probably have led to riots and possible spill-over to the Western part of Europe by now.

Systematic increase in the centralisation of power - this is where we just have a different world view. I believe in ever-closer union, with the benefits of shared knowledge and resources and the possibility of war continually becoming less and less likely as countries work together on many issues and become intertwined in their interests; you don't.

Flawed system - of course. I'd be interested to hear about which system isn't flawed.

[DungBeetle]

"Peace in Europe - I believe there is a real risk of Europe regressing to war in the medium term if the EU were to disintegrate. I don't mean a continent-wide war, but more localised disputes escalating into military outcomes. The EU resolves a hell of a lot of conflict all the time (okay, it causes some of the conflict, but not most of it)."

Just when I think I am 100% settled on voting remain I read something like this and cringe.  Using threat of war as an argument to remain is a complete nonsense.  Where do you rank European countries firing missiles at each other on the scale of biggest issues caused by leaving Mint?