The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

ok exogenous shocks can happen to any economy at any time

but brexit would be a self engineered and voted upon economic shock would it not? a deliberate cost of getting to a position outside europe that people want to get to?

pretty much unprecedented that a populace would do that.

i do struggle with the idea that a several percentage point drop in GDP 2017-20 and 1.5m or so increase in unemployment (just to take a couple of issues where there is near univeral agreement) is a price worth paying for what would be a marginal increase in control over immigration and some abstract notions of greater sovereignity

whilst of course the head of the world trade organisation might say this, it could be argued, i note he is warning of "ten years of chaos" this morning if trade agreements need renegotiating
 

[nirvana]

I'd vote remain if we got say 50% of the benefits extended to workers in the other major European economies I  terms of redundancy, unemployment and sickness benefits, government subsidies to finance short time working during downturns. We won't get this under a tory government (or labour) if previous terms in office are the evidence) and it frustrates me hugely that we are hired and fired, closed/moved here more than other countries.

This of course is the.main reason international business moves here but it's a double edged sword at times as the low cost of closure/redundancy in the UK versus Italy France Germany makes our work force easy targets in harder times

[nirvana]

I dunno obviously. The EU isn't very competitive. Social costs are something of a worry in the medium term. Few of the members that matter are growing at a decent rate. It  could all turn to rats hit conceivably. Probably won't but it's possible to make it somewhat academic to us.

[david3103]

ok exogenous shocks can happen to any economy at any time

but brexit would be a self engineered and voted upon economic shock would it not? a deliberate cost of getting to a position outside europe that people want to get to?

pretty much unprecedented that a populace would do that.

i do struggle with the idea that a several percentage point drop in GDP 2017-20 and 1.5m or so increase in unemployment (just to take a couple of issues where there is near univeral agreement) is a price worth paying for what would be a marginal increase in control over immigration and some abstract notions of greater sovereignity

whilst of course the head of the world trade organisation might say this, it could be argued, i note he is warning of "ten years of chaos" this morning if trade agreements need renegotiating
 

Sources?

I know it's been said, I just wonder about the 'near universal agreement'.
There was pretty widespread agreement that the world had arrived at a new financial state when Sir George and his cronies either side of the Atlantic were ratcheting up the financial markets. That turned out well.

[doubleup]

While economic forecasts can be debated, it is 100% the case that the Leave campaign have persistently lied to the British people during this campaign.  This confirms that even they believe their case is so weak that they have to embellish it with untruths.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/07/eu-referendum-fact-check-david-cameron-leave-campaign-claims

[david3103]

While economic forecasts can be debated, it is 100% the case that the Leave campaign have persistently lied to the British people during this campaign.  This confirms that even they believe their case is so weak that they have to embellish it with untruths.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/07/eu-referendum-fact-check-david-cameron-leave-campaign-claims

Hold the front page, the Guardian is in full-on unbiased reporting mode supporting the remain vote.

It's equally clear that we have been misled by the Remainistas on a number of issues too. The first casualty of politics is truth.
Here's an independent view of the government leaflet. Note that although much of the leaflet appears accurate, not all of it is.

https://speakout.38degrees.org.uk/campaigns/the-government-s-eu-leaflet-fact-check-video

We should not take anything we are told as truth until we, or someone we implicitly trust, has verified it.

Your standard, over-exaggerated response to something so unexceptional as a politician's obfuscation needs calming down for the good of your future well-being.

[doubleup]

While economic forecasts can be debated, it is 100% the case that the Leave campaign have persistently lied to the British people during this campaign.  This confirms that even they believe their case is so weak that they have to embellish it with untruths.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/07/eu-referendum-fact-check-david-cameron-leave-campaign-claims

Hold the front page, the Guardian is in full-on unbiased reporting mode supporting the remain vote.

It's equally clear that we have been misled by the Remainistas on a number of issues too. The first casualty of politics is truth.
Here's an independent view of the government leaflet. Note that although much of the leaflet appears accurate, not all of it is.

https://speakout.38degrees.org.uk/campaigns/the-government-s-eu-leaflet-fact-check-video

We should not take anything we are told as truth until we, or someone we implicitly trust, has verified it.

Your standard, over-exaggerated response to something so unexceptional as a politician's obfuscation needs calming down for the good of your future well-being.

rofl Did you actually watch that video you put up?  It is basically strawmanish.  The leaflet info is "true" but here's something that the leaflet doesn't say that we think it should have said, so the leaflet is false? 

That is entirely different to the provable lies of the leave campaign.

   

[TightEnd]

525,000 voter registrations yesterday at the deadline, as everyone indulges in the great tradition of leaving it to last minute.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

with global investors worried about Brexit, Britain's economy is facing the worst capital flight since 2009. Here's the chart that shows it:

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

here is the story that accompanies that

worrying or alarmist rhetoric depending on whether you are leave or remain

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/eu-osborne-warning-over-capital-flight-cost

[TightEnd]

meanwhile in the betting markets, its all sound and fury but not much has changed

[Doobs]

ok exogenous shocks can happen to any economy at any time

but brexit would be a self engineered and voted upon economic shock would it not? a deliberate cost of getting to a position outside europe that people want to get to?

pretty much unprecedented that a populace would do that.

i do struggle with the idea that a several percentage point drop in GDP 2017-20 and 1.5m or so increase in unemployment (just to take a couple of issues where there is near univeral agreement) is a price worth paying for what would be a marginal increase in control over immigration and some abstract notions of greater sovereignity

whilst of course the head of the world trade organisation might say this, it could be argued, i note he is warning of "ten years of chaos" this morning if trade agreements need renegotiating
 

Sources?

I know it's been said, I just wonder about the 'near universal agreement'.
There was pretty widespread agreement that the world had arrived at a new financial state when Sir George and his cronies either side of the Atlantic were ratcheting up the financial markets. That turned out well.

You sure about this.   I remember Blair/ Brown claiming the end to boom and bust and pretty much everybody knowing exactly what would happen next. 

[Karabiner]

I was quite looking forward to last night's Farage v Cameron "debate".

What an anti-climax that was, fancy the PM bottling out of actually debating the issues.

[TightEnd]

I was quite looking forward to last night's Farage v Cameron "debate".

What an anti-climax that was, fancy the PM bottling out of actually debating the issues.

he did?

the format was poor, julie e was very poor, itv does politics very poorly

farage was tetchy, cameron won it quite clearly i thought (though he was nailed on his immigration pledge)

[DungBeetle]

While economic forecasts can be debated, it is 100% the case that the Leave campaign have persistently lied to the British people during this campaign.  This confirms that even they believe their case is so weak that they have to embellish it with untruths.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/07/eu-referendum-fact-check-david-cameron-leave-campaign-claims

Hold the front page, the Guardian is in full-on unbiased reporting mode supporting the remain vote.

It's equally clear that we have been misled by the Remainistas on a number of issues too. The first casualty of politics is truth.
Here's an independent view of the government leaflet. Note that although much of the leaflet appears accurate, not all of it is.

https://speakout.38degrees.org.uk/campaigns/the-government-s-eu-leaflet-fact-check-video

We should not take anything we are told as truth until we, or someone we implicitly trust, has verified it.

Your standard, over-exaggerated response to something so unexceptional as a politician's obfuscation needs calming down for the good of your future well-being.

rofl Did you actually watch that video you put up?  It is basically strawmanish.  The leaflet info is "true" but here's something that the leaflet doesn't say that we think it should have said, so the leaflet is false? 

That is entirely different to the provable lies of the leave campaign.

   

How is this any different to the points raised in the Guardian article which you claim is "entirely provable"

"We have no ability to stop EU spending from going up"

Remain reply:  Well that's true if most EU members want that to happen BUT we want them to point out we teamed up with Germany last time to secure a reduction in spending (although we admit we couldn't do it alone)

"We'd save £8 billion if we left the EU"

Remain reply:  Well that's true BUT we think they should point out that this would be counteracted by a likely shock to the economy which would contract it and reduce tax receipts.

It's all the same - there are elements in truth in what both sides say but they spin it to suit their arguments.  You're just too partisan about the EU to see that both sides are guilty of dubious debate.