The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

On the assumption of May as prime minister

there won't be any trade deals by then

less than 50-50 that article 50 will be invoked by then

immigration numbers won't have come down, and a segment leave voters will be very restless

there will have been 2 or 3 quarters of negative growth, so a technical recession starting now and through to Q1 2017. focussed on those areas relying on consumer spending eg marks and spencer and corporate capex. global exporters doing pretty well though 

inflation will be rising but interest rates may be negative by the end of the year. will never have seen that here before

Corbyn i really don't know. Probably still leader and possibly a labour party in mid split


if its Leadsom as prime minister

Article 50 invoked much quicker

much more urgent attempts to form a central-centrist party. much establishment angst of hard right v hard left and wtf is the centre going to do

possible general election

still no trade deals

still a recession

possibly some temporary measures on freedom of movement in.

[TightEnd]

some choice....

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[The Camel]

On the assumption of May as prime minister

there won't be any trade deals by then

less than 50-50 that article 50 will be invoked by then

immigration numbers won't have come down, and a segment leave voters will be very restless

there will have been 2 or 3 quarters of negative growth, so a technical recession starting now and through to Q1 2017. focussed on those areas relying on consumer spending eg marks and spencer and corporate capex. global exporters doing pretty well though 

inflation will be rising but interest rates may be negative by the end of the year. will never have seen that here before

Corbyn i really don't know. Probably still leader and possibly a labour party in mid split


if its Leadsom as prime minister

Article 50 invoked much quicker

much more urgent attempts to form a central-centrist party. much establishment angst of hard right v hard left and wtf is the centre going to do

possible general election

still no trade deals

still a recession

possibly some temporary measures on freedom of movement in.

Sorry, "negative interest rates"?

Being paid to borrow money?

Where can I sign up?

[arbboy]

On the assumption of May as prime minister

there won't be any trade deals by then

less than 50-50 that article 50 will be invoked by then

immigration numbers won't have come down, and a segment leave voters will be very restless

there will have been 2 or 3 quarters of negative growth, so a technical recession starting now and through to Q1 2017. focussed on those areas relying on consumer spending eg marks and spencer and corporate capex. global exporters doing pretty well though  

inflation will be rising but interest rates may be negative by the end of the year. will never have seen that here before

Corbyn i really don't know. Probably still leader and possibly a labour party in mid split


if its Leadsom as prime minister

Article 50 invoked much quicker

much more urgent attempts to form a central-centrist party. much establishment angst of hard right v hard left and wtf is the centre going to do

possible general election

still no trade deals

still a recession

possibly some temporary measures on freedom of movement in.

Sorry, "negative interest rates"?

Being paid to borrow money?

Where can I sign up?

There will be no money to borrow though.  Don't think i will be in a rush to pay a bank to look after my cash.  I will just stick it under the bed like most others!   Might be a time to buy shares in companies making domestic safes!

[TightEnd]

Several countries already have negative interest rates. Disincentive to save, incentive to borrow. Carney explicitly mentioned it as a policy option post brexit. Not without its downsides, I will pop some links up when back on properly later

[DungBeetle]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high

Cliffs:

36% under-25s turnout was based on polling after the 2015 GE and was the number of people that responded 'Always' to the question of how often they vote

New projected turnout by age group:

18-24 - 64%
25-39 - 65%
40-54 - 66%
55-64 - 74%
65+   - 90%

Question: If you couldn't be bothered to go and vote, would you be bothered to participate in a poll?  Surely a random participant in the poll is more likely to be politically engaged to give the pollster time of day rather than just hang up/walk away.  How do they adjust for this?

[DMorgan]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high

Cliffs:

36% under-25s turnout was based on polling after the 2015 GE and was the number of people that responded 'Always' to the question of how often they vote

New projected turnout by age group:

18-24 - 64%
25-39 - 65%
40-54 - 66%
55-64 - 74%
65+   - 90%

Question: If you couldn't be bothered to go and vote, would you be bothered to participate in a poll?  Surely a random participant in the poll is more likely to be politically engaged to give the pollster time of day rather than just hang up/walk away.  How do they adjust for this?

That is factored in and refining these models to better adjust for factors like you mention was a big focus of the polling firms in the aftermath of the 2015 GE.

How they do it I don't know but one of my friends is a Data Scientist for YouGov so I'll ask him

[JohnCharver]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high

Cliffs:

36% under-25s turnout was based on polling after the 2015 GE and was the number of people that responded 'Always' to the question of how often they vote

New projected turnout by age group:

18-24 - 64%
25-39 - 65%
40-54 - 66%
55-64 - 74%
65+   - 90%

Question: If you couldn't be bothered to go and vote, would you be bothered to participate in a poll?  Surely a random participant in the poll is more likely to be politically engaged to give the pollster time of day rather than just hang up/walk away.  How do they adjust for this?

That is factored in and refining these models to better adjust for factors like you mention was a big focus of the polling firms in the aftermath of the 2015 GE.

How they do it I don't know but one of my friends is a Data Scientist for YouGov so I'll ask him

When I vote, I cant be chewed to talk to the people standing outside, the only people inclined seem to be older people who dont seem to be in a rush to get anywhere else, voting was a bigger part of their day. Your data on these people will be alot more useful than the rest of the people who usually reply to the question ranging from f off to your ma'.

How do polls account for someone being more wary to tell a pollster they have voted leave, when leave voters were treated as they were. Surely leave voters in the main would be alot less inclined to express their views publically?

[neeko]

On the assumption of May as prime minister

there won't be any trade deals by then

less than 50-50 that article 50 will be invoked by then

immigration numbers won't have come down, and a segment leave voters will be very restless

there will have been 2 or 3 quarters of negative growth, so a technical recession starting now and through to Q1 2017. focussed on those areas relying on consumer spending eg marks and spencer and corporate capex. global exporters doing pretty well though 

inflation will be rising but interest rates may be negative by the end of the year. will never have seen that here before

Corbyn i really don't know. Probably still leader and possibly a labour party in mid split


if its Leadsom as prime minister

Article 50 invoked much quicker

much more urgent attempts to form a central-centrist party. much establishment angst of hard right v hard left and wtf is the centre going to do

possible general election

still no trade deals

still a recession

possibly some temporary measures on freedom of movement in.

Sorry, "negative interest rates"?

Being paid to borrow money?

Where can I sign up?

Denmark

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/10/ive-been-under-attack-its-been-shattering-andrea-leadsom-apologi/

'I've been under attack, it's been shattering': Andrea Leadsom apologises to Theresa May over motherhood comments and admits furore has left her hurt

[TightEnd]

The EEA Option emerges into the light

http://reaction.life/liberal-minded-internationalists-risk-backing-wrong-horse/

[TightEnd]

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton

Former shadow cabinet minister tells me "this will end up in court" whatever NEC decides. http://bit.ly/29wjbh5

[TightEnd]

Corbyn set to be kept off Labour leadership ballot without nominations, reports georgeeaton http://bit.ly/29wjbh5