The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Tom Watson calls off talks with unions over Jeremy Corbyn's future, saying 'no realistic prospect of compromise'.

so Angela Eagle launches a leadership bid

she'll probably lose

so what happens then? the labour party splits?

((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges

Corbyn was using McClusky to delay leadership contest in hope Chilcot would force rebels to back off. Clear their strategy has failed.

[TightEnd]

private eye was talking leadsom...

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[TightEnd]

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil

The Labour membership wants a new PLP and the PLP wants a new membership. Not sure how that's resolved without some sort of schism.

[TightEnd]

Incredibly strong statement from Len McCluskey: "Tom Watson’s actions today can only look like an act of sabotage".

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[TightEnd]

As Labour go to war, the odds are in Jeremy Corbyn's favour:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-go-war-jeremy-corbyn-holds-best-cards

[TightEnd]

a very good read indeed


the worrying retreat into fantasy and willful ignorance on both sides of politics

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/09/in-a-world-of-post-truth-politics-andrea-leadsom-will-make-the-p/

[DMorgan]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high

Cliffs:

36% under-25s turnout was based on polling after the 2015 GE and was the number of people that responded 'Always' to the question of how often they vote

New projected turnout by age group:

18-24 - 64%
25-39 - 65%
40-54 - 66%
55-64 - 74%
65+   - 90%

[TightEnd]

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardma

Labour rebels think even perpetual leadership challenges would do less damage to party than Corbyn http://specc.ie/29u9VMY

[TightEnd]

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton

Senior Labour source: "The NEC will ensure the rulebook is implemented." Suggests Corbyn will need nominations. But could end up in court.


remember there are two legal interpretations. if corbyn needs the nominations from the PLP he's going to struggle to get on the ballot. Which would be a real shocker for Momentum and friends

[TightEnd]

 Mark Urban ‏@MarkUrban01

A timely reminder that Canada's trade deal, 7 years in negotiation, is still being held up by a few EU countries


..at the NATO summit the canadian finance minister said

"If Europe can't ratify a trade deal with Canada who can it ratify with?"

[TightEnd]

Labour in 'greatest crisis in generations': Angela Eagle announces leadership bid and union baron savages Tom Watson

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/labour-turmoil-angela-eagle-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile...20 Conservative MPs would quit if Leadsom elected, according to Sunday Times report

so the right of the PLP+the lib dems plus the tory wets = a new democrat party?

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[TightEnd]

one paper had a theoretical crack at the realignment that might be coming...

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[DMorgan]

The two things that jump out from that

David Cameron using state power to deliver large increases in house building?

Would the SNP be willing to dissolve itself when they can just watch the political bonfire for a bit until they get another indy referendum?

I'm nitpicking though, obviously this is extremely difficult to project

[RED-DOG]

Does anyone have any predictions for where we will be 12 months post referendum?

Any aspects will be interesting. Who will be in power / Immigration / Inflation / Trade deals etc...