The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Yeah thats a fair point and as far as I've read this is in line with accepted wisdom. Seems to make sense for lots of reasons.

I think it was this bit that kind of discredited everything that came after

The guy interviewed was super positive in his outlook and was bemoaning the constant negativity, especially in press/social media/TV.

Made him sound like one of this lot

It is fairly hard to be positive when all the indicators say the outlook is negative.   These are just feedback loops.  

Brexit causes uncertainty; so companies become cautious, causing growth to slow; causing people in business to become negative; then the population becomes negative; then we have a recession.  

It was pretty much very likely to play out this way, though I am pretty shocked the brexitters seem to have walked away like they have.

That is all before any practicalities of trade/laws/relationships with other countries/their citizens have been resolved.

There was a small chance that we would all rise up and be proud and cause a growth spurt, but guess that isn't happening now.

Fwiw.  Had an interview the other week.  Cancelled, company has stopped hiring.  Though I would say there is more jobs around than I expected, though likely not as many as before brexit.

One thing is for certain, if we turn into a bunch of doom and gloom moanbags then we are definitely heading for recession.

[George2Loose]

Maybe Thersa May should use that line in her next speech

[DungBeetle]

Maybe Thersa May should use that line in her next speech

Judging by the polls May could call the electorate morons and still have a healthy lead as long as Corbyn is the alternative.

[doubleup]

Yeah thats a fair point and as far as I've read this is in line with accepted wisdom. Seems to make sense for lots of reasons.

I think it was this bit that kind of discredited everything that came after

The guy interviewed was super positive in his outlook and was bemoaning the constant negativity, especially in press/social media/TV.

Made him sound like one of this lot

It is fairly hard to be positive when all the indicators say the outlook is negative.   These are just feedback loops.  

Brexit causes uncertainty; so companies become cautious, causing growth to slow; causing people in business to become negative; then the population becomes negative; then we have a recession.  

It was pretty much very likely to play out this way, though I am pretty shocked the brexitters seem to have walked away like they have.

That is all before any practicalities of trade/laws/relationships with other countries/their citizens have been resolved.

There was a small chance that we would all rise up and be proud and cause a growth spurt, but guess that isn't happening now.

Fwiw.  Had an interview the other week.  Cancelled, company has stopped hiring.  Though I would say there is more jobs around than I expected, though likely not as many as before brexit.

One thing is for certain, if we turn into a bunch of doom and gloom moanbags then we are definitely heading for recession.

[DMorgan]

Come on doubleup you've really been pushing troll status the last couple of weeks

[Woodsey]

Yeah thats a fair point and as far as I've read this is in line with accepted wisdom. Seems to make sense for lots of reasons.

I think it was this bit that kind of discredited everything that came after

The guy interviewed was super positive in his outlook and was bemoaning the constant negativity, especially in press/social media/TV.

Made him sound like one of this lot

It is fairly hard to be positive when all the indicators say the outlook is negative.   These are just feedback loops.  

Brexit causes uncertainty; so companies become cautious, causing growth to slow; causing people in business to become negative; then the population becomes negative; then we have a recession.  

It was pretty much very likely to play out this way, though I am pretty shocked the brexitters seem to have walked away like they have.

That is all before any practicalities of trade/laws/relationships with other countries/their citizens have been resolved.

There was a small chance that we would all rise up and be proud and cause a growth spurt, but guess that isn't happening now.

Fwiw.  Had an interview the other week.  Cancelled, company has stopped hiring.  Though I would say there is more jobs around than I expected, though likely not as many as before brexit.

One thing is for certain, if we turn into a bunch of doom and gloom moanbags then we are definitely heading for recession.

Says number one moanbag...

[Doobs]

Come on doubleup you've really been pushing troll status the last couple of weeks

Trollimpics going on here for sure.  The old master faces off against the new kid on the block. 

[Marky147]

Come on doubleup you've really been pushing troll status the last couple of weeks

Trollimpics going on here for sure.  The old master faces off against the new kid on the block. 

[TightEnd]

Betfair punters now make it a 76% chance that Article 50 won't be invoked, if at all, until after July 1 2017

[TightEnd]

James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth

It will be 6 months before we have a clearer picture of what Brexit actually looks like, one senior figure tells me

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/james-forsyth/1561622/early-election-would-be-a-real-disaster-for-theresa-may-despite-10-point-tory-lead-in-the-polls/

[TightEnd]

Leaked Labour report says activists "do not accept the areas they work in are rural".

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/08/exclusive-jeremy-corbyn-accused-ignoring-leaked-report-labours-rural-problem

[redsimon]

Betfair punters now make it a 76% chance that Article 50 won't be invoked, if at all, until after July 1 2017

Remain now trading at 1.3 implying a 76% chance, Leave now just a 24% chance.

£45.3m traded - biggest political market in Betfair history

[neeko]

Betfair punters now make it a 76% chance that Article 50 won't be invoked, if at all, until after July 1 2017

Remain now trading at 1.3 implying a 76% chance, Leave now just a 24% chance.

£45.3m traded - biggest political market in Betfair history

French and German elections are not until 2017 so no point invoking until after then.

My guess would be late 2018 so that it won't activate till after the end of the European budget process in 2020 and after the uk election in 2020 with the winning party able to quit the process if the vote went against the brexit parties.

[Jon MW]

Betfair punters now make it a 76% chance that Article 50 won't be invoked, if at all, until after July 1 2017

Remain now trading at 1.3 implying a 76% chance, Leave now just a 24% chance.

£45.3m traded - biggest political market in Betfair history

French and German elections are not until 2017 so no point invoking until after then.

My guess would be late 2018 so that it won't activate till after the end of the European budget process in 2020 and after the uk election in 2020 with the winning party able to quit the process if the vote went against the brexit parties.

I thought it couldn't be cancelled once it started (?)

[DMorgan]

Legally it seems a bit up in the air still

http://theconversation.com/once-the-uk-triggers-article-50-to-start-brexit-can-it-turn-back-61727