The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[DaveShoelace]

Anyone know much about the Dutch election system? BetStars have PVV as the favourite to win the most seats next week, but the odds on their leader Geert Wilders to be Prime Minister are waaaaay longer. On BetStars the wording of a seperate bet is also 'Geert Wilders to become Prime Minister in 2017' rather than just 'to become Prime Minister'.

I'm guessing that means something like A) they tend to end up as coalitions and B) there is a lot of bureaucracy after the election to hand over power?

[EvilPie]

There was a poll before indyref1 thar showed 52% of Scots were going to vote yes in the end only 45% did. The 2nd poll shows why it will be hard for leave to win 45% (8-10) hardliners unionist is a huge starting block versus 38% (1-3) nationalist

If the first poll got it so wrong who's to say the second one isn't total tosh as well?

Have any polls actually got it right in recent times when it comes down to the bit that actually matters?

[DaveShoelace]

Anyone know much about the Dutch election system? BetStars have PVV as the favourite to win the most seats next week, but the odds on their leader Geert Wilders to be Prime Minister are waaaaay longer. On BetStars the wording of a seperate bet is also 'Geert Wilders to become Prime Minister in 2017' rather than just 'to become Prime Minister'.

I'm guessing that means something like A) they tend to end up as coalitions and B) there is a lot of bureaucracy after the election to hand over power?

Yeah I was spot on, answered my own question, from the New Yorker

The second and more significant point is that, even if he were to win more votes than the other candidates, it’s unlikely that Wilders would become Prime Minister. The Dutch system has about a dozen political parties. Almost never does one party win an outright majority. (The last time was in 1891.) To govern, a party with a plurality of votes must pull others into a coalition, and ever since Wilders’s rise the other major parties have publicly declared that they would never form a government with him. Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is seeking reëlection, said last month that there was a “zero per cent” chance that his V.V.D. party would link up with Wilders. Should Wilders win a plurality of votes but be unable to find other parties willing to govern with him, there would likely be a long period, perhaps months, in which specially appointed “informateurs” and “scouts” would try to cajole party leaders toward a coalition. If the other parties continue to honor their pledge to ice out Wilders, he would remain on the sidelines.

[Ironside]

There was a poll before indyref1 thar showed 52% of Scots were going to vote yes in the end only 45% did. The 2nd poll shows why it will be hard for leave to win 45% (8-10) hardliners unionist is a huge starting block versus 38% (1-3) nationalist

If the first poll got it so wrong who's to say the second one isn't total tosh as well?

Have any polls actually got it right in recent times when it comes down to the bit that actually matters?

indyref was wider than predicted
uk election predicted hung parliament
brexit predicted remain
USA predicted clinton by a country mile


polls havent got many of the big thing right recently

[neeko]

There was a poll before indyref1 thar showed 52% of Scots were going to vote yes in the end only 45% did. The 2nd poll shows why it will be hard for leave to win 45% (8-10) hardliners unionist is a huge starting block versus 38% (1-3) nationalist

If the first poll got it so wrong who's to say the second one isn't total tosh as well?

Have any polls actually got it right in recent times when it comes down to the bit that actually matters?

indyref was wider than predicted
uk election predicted hung parliament
brexit predicted remain
USA predicted clinton by a country mile


polls havent got many of the big thing right recently

I disagree, if you look at the polls and their margin of error rather than the inaccurate analysis of the polls at the time then they were ok.

[doubleup]

The paradox of indyref 2 is that a hard brexit, although increasing anger, will actually greatly weaken any case for independence.  Hard brexit would mean tariffs on cross border trade if Scotland rejoined the EU.  So it would be very difficult to make the "we are separating to rejoin the EU" argument.

[Doobs]

There was a poll before indyref1 thar showed 52% of Scots were going to vote yes in the end only 45% did. The 2nd poll shows why it will be hard for leave to win 45% (8-10) hardliners unionist is a huge starting block versus 38% (1-3) nationalist

If the first poll got it so wrong who's to say the second one isn't total tosh as well?

Have any polls actually got it right in recent times when it comes down to the bit that actually matters?

indyref was wider than predicted
uk election predicted hung parliament
brexit predicted remain
USA predicted clinton by a country mile


polls havent got many of the big thing right recently

I disagree, if you look at the polls and their margin of error rather than the inaccurate analysis of the polls at the time then they were ok.

Yeah this.  Clinton was 3-4% up in the polls, won by 2%. 

A week before Brexit, the majority of polls were pro Brexit (and it was a big majority).  Jo Cox's death changed that, but even then they started swinging back to Brexit.  Think it was 4-2 remain vs leave in the last 6 polls the day before.  End result was 51.7, so pretty damn close?  (Can't remember the exact).  Think it was just such a shock as many just didn't believe they could lose even in much of the campaigning was half arsed and it was clear mamy were taken in by the bullshit.

Indyref remain was the result in 90% of polls?  Sure there are going to be the odd outliers.

Uk election was a tory win in most polls again.  I can't remember the exact numbers, but I don't think the Tory vote was out by much, maybe 2-3%.

[TightEnd]

watching the sundays, Peston and Marr etc....a bit of a car crash!

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Article 50 may be triggered this week.

Here's why the EU then takes back control. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/2017-other-eu-states-will-take-back-control-brexit

[TightEnd]

The Conservatives are 11 points ahead of Labour among working class voters:

38% to 27% (YouGov/Times 8-9 March)

[TightEnd]

OmNICshambles: how it all went wrong for 'spreadsheet Phil' Hammond

Chancellor’s allies say tax rise for self-employed makes system fairer but it was the politics, not economics, that mattered

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/11/omnicshambles-how-it-all-went-wrong-for-spreadsheet-phil-hammond?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

this has no significance whtsoever,but the anecdote did make me chuckle

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

no Brexit deal is either "bad" "not apocalyptic" or "ok" depending to which of threeebrexiteers you listened to yesterday

reverting to WTO trade terms means

(for hard core readers)  The Product and Sector Level Impact of a Hard Brexit across the EU. http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP550.pdf

(for skimmers) Bottom line: UK biggest loser with whopping 9.8% of trade lost, Ireland next with 4.17%, average rest-EU 2%; France 1.56%, Germany 2.54%

[TightEnd]

oh yes, had to post this

as we all know Ms Davidson is a formidable politician about the lead the Conservatives to previously unknown glories noth of the border

"Is this why Nicola Sturgeon wants a second independence referendum, asks Fraser Nelson

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/might-nicola-sturgeons-sinking-approval-ratings-explain-appetite-referendum/ "

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

and for balance

"Scotland is heading for a second independence poll. Is a Yes vote any more likely?"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/12/scotland-second-referendum-brexit-could-it-backfire?CMP=twt_gu