The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

New Herald poll: Union 52 v Independence 48

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15151272.Scotland_s_future_on_a_knife_edge_as_new_poll_shows_further_backing_for_independence

[TightEnd]

going to be a complicated time

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[TightEnd]

spot on Nigel.

errr....

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[TightEnd]

from the Norman Davies book "Vanished Kngdoms" (2010)

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[TightEnd]

the psephologist Anthony Wells

New post: Does Scotland want a second referendum? http://bit.ly/2nxRyrM

[TightEnd]

from the political professor Rob Ford

Just doing some charts for presentation.Excluding Batley (special case) Lab vote share has fallen in every by-elec since Brexit. Avg fall 5%

That's 5 falls in a row: pretty extraordinary for main oppo party. Has there ever been such a long string of oppo by-elec retreats before?

Meanwhile, LDs have seen their vote share rise in every by-elec since Brexit. Average rise across 5 votes is 13.7%

[Sheriff Fatman]

from the political professor Rob Ford

Just doing some charts for presentation.Excluding Batley (special case) Lab vote share has fallen in every by-elec since Brexit. Avg fall 5%

That's 5 falls in a row: pretty extraordinary for main oppo party. Has there ever been such a long string of oppo by-elec retreats before?

Meanwhile, LDs have seen their vote share rise in every by-elec since Brexit. Average rise across 5 votes is 13.7%

This is one of the things that is puzzling me with the current opinion polls, as the Lib Dem upturn has been very noticeable in the bye-elections, and in most of the council bye-election results I've seen, yet they've made pretty much zero impact in the opinion polls over the same time.

Membership is increasing, and with Labour's leap further Left, they're pretty much the only party in the centre ground which is where the many disenfranchised Blairite Labour voters are looking to be represented.

They still undoubtedly (and harshly) carry the stigma from the coalition government, and the tuition fee debacle in particular, so I'm intrigued as to whether the next General Election will show up a lot of 'shy Lib Dems' which the current polling isn't reflecting.

[PokerBroker]

from the political professor Rob Ford

Just doing some charts for presentation.Excluding Batley (special case) Lab vote share has fallen in every by-elec since Brexit. Avg fall 5%

That's 5 falls in a row: pretty extraordinary for main oppo party. Has there ever been such a long string of oppo by-elec retreats before?

Meanwhile, LDs have seen their vote share rise in every by-elec since Brexit. Average rise across 5 votes is 13.7%

This is one of the things that is puzzling me with the current opinion polls, as the Lib Dem upturn has been very noticeable in the bye-elections, and in most of the council bye-election results I've seen, yet they've made pretty much zero impact in the opinion polls over the same time.

Membership is increasing, and with Labour's leap further Left, they're pretty much the only party in the centre ground which is where the many disenfranchised Blairite Labour voters are looking to be represented.

They still undoubtedly (and harshly) carry the stigma from the coalition government, and the tuition fee debacle in particular, so I'm intrigued as to whether the next General Election will show up a lot of 'shy Lib Dems' which the current polling isn't reflecting.

Not sure the ire directed towards the LD's is harsh. 

[ripple11]

New Herald poll: Union 52 v Independence 48

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15151272.Scotland_s_future_on_a_knife_edge_as_new_poll_shows_further_backing_for_independence

Ind is odds on in the betting.

Where's Donald when you need him.........."we going to build a wall and you're going to pay for it" 

Seriously , if it happens, May will make sure its going to be post Brexit negotiations......when the fun and games of trying to join the EU and the Euro will surely mean a No vote.

[aaron1867]

Nicola Sturgeon must be one of the most selfish and childish politicians in the UK. I've not known anything like it really and has the face that really grates on you too, proper one of those "get me the manager" kinda folk.

But surely it must just be better for Scotland to have a vote on whether they want a referendum, rather than just going knee deep to another referendum again. She just doesn't care about the Scottish people, just absolutely desperate to get Scotland out.

I blame Corbyn.

[PokerBroker]

Nicola Sturgeon must be one of the most selfish and childish politicians in the UK. I've not known anything like it really and has the face that really grates on you too, proper one of those "get me the manager" kinda folk.

But surely it must just be better for Scotland to have a vote on whether they want a referendum, rather than just going knee deep to another referendum again. She just doesn't care about the Scottish people, just absolutely desperate to get Scotland out.

I blame Corbyn.

Lol. Back under your rock Little Englander.

[RickBFA]

Nicola Sturgeon must be one of the most selfish and childish politicians in the UK. I've not known anything like it really and has the face that really grates on you too, proper one of those "get me the manager" kinda folk.

But surely it must just be better for Scotland to have a vote on whether they want a referendum, rather than just going knee deep to another referendum again. She just doesn't care about the Scottish people, just absolutely desperate to get Scotland out.

I blame Corbyn.

Lol. Back under your rock Little Englander.

You seem to like that insult, I thought that was me.

Heard commentators saying it was like May and Sturgeon playing poker.

Problem for Sturgeon is she has just gone all in with a weak hand.

Likely to be the end of her career when the Scottish people vote against it again.

[PokerBroker]

Nicola Sturgeon must be one of the most selfish and childish politicians in the UK. I've not known anything like it really and has the face that really grates on you too, proper one of those "get me the manager" kinda folk.

But surely it must just be better for Scotland to have a vote on whether they want a referendum, rather than just going knee deep to another referendum again. She just doesn't care about the Scottish people, just absolutely desperate to get Scotland out.

I blame Corbyn.

Lol. Back under your rock Little Englander.

You seem to like that insult, I thought that was me.

Heard commentators saying it was like May and Sturgeon playing poker.

Problem for Sturgeon is she has just gone all in with a weak hand.

Likely to be the end of her career when the Scottish people vote against it again.

If the hat fits then you wear it.

I doubt this will be the end of Sturgeon's career. I don't think she has gone all in yet,  I think it's still a semi bluff, when May decides she is blocking the section 30 then Strurge goes back to Scotland with the look what they are doing line.  A little different to how Collins went back to Dublin with his treaty when was sent as a stoodge of De Valera.

[TightEnd]

this is a good read

The debate about reciprocal rights shows that a lot of Brexiteers haven't quite got what Brexit means yet:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/what-row-over-european-citizens-reveals-about-theresa-may

[TightEnd]

1 in 7 of all Scots voted for independence as well as Brexit.

Click to see full-size image.