The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[PokerBroker]

OK? Apart from the IRA, nukes, terrorism, NATO, tax, the economy. Not many watching on a Friday though I bet. It's a terrible time for party leaders, all really poor at the moment I think, may was dreadful on Monday, farron and nuttall too, not a patch on clegg and farage as performers

Serious question do you know what went on with the RA?  Or are you just believing what the brit media tell you?

I genuinley believed you were smarter than that tighty. 

[PokerBroker]

FWIW I am not a Labour Voter, I'd like to vote for Corbyn simply becuse I believe him to be genuine. 

For me believing in the integrity of my politician is pretty important.  He may have his shortcomings but when he speaks I genuinley believe it to be form the heart and I think he has the people at heart.  I genuinley dispair that certain politicians arein it for their own gain and  they get more traction than Corbyn.  I would hopw that if he ever did get into power he would surround himself with good people who have the majority at the centre of what they do. 

[TightEnd]

this is fun

[TightEnd]

OK? Apart from the IRA, nukes, terrorism, NATO, tax, the economy. Not many watching on a Friday though I bet. It's a terrible time for party leaders, all really poor at the moment I think, may was dreadful on Monday, farron and nuttall too, not a patch on clegg and farage as performers

Serious question do you know what went on with the RA?  Or are you just believing what the brit media tell you?

I genuinley believed you were smarter than that tighty. 

Corbyn told neil: "I never met the IRA".

He has definitely been in the room with 9 IRA members over the years:



he says he is aman ofpeace and that is all he tries to do,promote peace

ok

so why does no interviewer ever ask him if he has met the other side

did he meet the UVF to try to stop the bombing? (i think the answer is no)

as well as hobnobbing with hamas and hezbollah has he met the israelis (no again,as far as i can tell)

so it all seems rather one sided to me

anyway its all academic to me as i have postal voted (neither conservative or labour) but seeing Corbyn, the  former IRA fundraiser McDonnell and the ludicrous Abbott (who also often put her name to motions calling for the defeat of the British state) in three of the great offices of state will be one of the most remarkable things i think we've ever seen in British politics, and not in a good way.

[TightEnd]

anyway, some reaction to yesterday's events

Corbyn confronted by his past

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/corbyn-confronted-past/

[TightEnd]

Can quibble on point estimates, but trends of the polls in the campaign fairly clear: Lab up, Con up then down, UKIP down, Lib Dems down.

Click to see full-size image.

tomorrow is a big ay,a raft of sunday polls expected. tighter than +/-5 expected

[TightEnd]

Corbyn marks out clear dividing lines on defence - BBC News

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40064400

[TightEnd]

Historical tendency (1979-2015) of the polls to over-estimate the Labour vote remains important... but note this is not *always* the case.

one of the interesting things this time,influx of previous non voters and young voters who may vote in bigger numbers...will it change this?

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Likewise, the polls -- on average -- under-estimate the Conservative vote share, but again this is not true for every election.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

By this point in the campaign, polls -- on average -- are pretty informative about the election outcome ->

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

this is an interesting and under-made point

"I think fox hunting was significant in returning Labour switherers to the fold"

 http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/why-tories-falling-poll-lead-

[TightEnd]

this is a point i have been making a lot

no good piling up votes in safe seats and gettign 38% voteshare in the wrong places, got to win those marginals....

"Labour must be wary of focusing on vote share – it’s seats that matter"

http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/labour-must-be-wary-of-focusing-on-vote-share-its-seats-that-matter/

[TightEnd]

the IFS had a conference yesterday going through the tax and spend plans of each of the maifestos

some slides follow. nerdy but interesting to see the differences

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Distributional impact of personal tax and benefit changes to come: the parties compared,

Most striking@ifs forecast - how even Labour hurts poorest by refusal to end benefits freeze & child tax credit cut

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Conservatives' public sector pay policy likely to exacerbate recruitment and retention difficulties,

Click to see full-size image.