The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[The Camel]

Basically the polls are all over the place, with the exception on Tory suipport which appaears stable at around 45%.

Labour appear to making gains mostly at the expense of the LibDems, but also from UKIP somewhat.

In order to make this really close they need about 1 in 10 Tory voters to make the leap straight across.

And I don't think that's going to happen.

[TightEnd]

there were 5 polls yesterday which i will go through

Average - last 7polls/post-Manchester

Con 44.4
Lab 35.6
LD 7.8
Ukip 4.6

Con lead 8.8 <- would be highest since '87

the UKIP to Con switch is providing a firewall that is very tough to breach.

Lib and Green consolidating into Labour too but the realignment of politics on the right will win this election

[RickBFA]

Basically the polls are all over the place, with the exception on Tory suipport which appaears stable at around 45%.

Labour appear to making gains mostly at the expense of the LibDems, but also from UKIP somewhat.

In order to make this really close they need about 1 in 10 Tory voters to make the leap straight across.

And I don't think that's going to happen.

Tory majority now 1/6 with Hills - looks like an Arbboy style short priced value bet?

[TightEnd]

this was stark

YouGov/Times (age crossbreaks)

18-24:

CON 12
LAB 69
LD 8
UKIP 2

Over 65:

CON 66
LAB 16
LD 8
UKIP 3

we know the o65s vote, 78% in 2015

we don' tknow that the 18-24s vote. 45% in 2015

they need to turn out in swathes for the 38% lab vote share to be correct. 60% currently "certain to vote"

[TightEnd]

CON leads in overnight polls

ICM 14%
ComRes 12%
Opinium 10%
YouGov 7%
ORB 6%

At least no one can accuse the pollsters of herding

[TightEnd]

Two-party Con/Lab share in polls tonight:

78%,
79%,
80%,
80%
82%.

It was 69% (GB %vote) in 2015.

[TightEnd]

Fiona Hill and Lynton Crosby opposed Nick Timothy over social care plan in Tory manifesto, says thesundaytimes

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Labour fightback is being driven by women voters. Tories had double-digit lead among women. Now just 1pt. ORB

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The tories did a very expensive viral d yesterday

over 1m views on facebook in 1 day and probably the hardest hitting uk campaign add i have seen (nothing on the US ones of course)

and now i can't find it on you tube to link it!

edit its here https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/corbyn-ira-attack-ad-hits-1-million-views/

[TightEnd]

If an alien from outer space landed and asked "who is winning the election?", I'd show them this chart for starters:

Click to see full-size image.

Paradox of the polls: humilation for May as campaigner, but validation of her argument that Tories should swallow the Ukip vote. probablystores uptroublefor herposition in the medium term,lostalot of brownie points with the tory MPs

[TightEnd]

Theresa May “most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism” 45% -5,

Corbyn 16% +2

ComRes yesterday

[TightEnd]

Opinium have 58% of 18-34 year olds certain to vote.

This is the relationship between Labour vote share and estimated 18-34 yo turnout so far this election

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The three lies that Jeremy Corbyn told Andrew Neil last night, by Stephen Daisley:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-three-lies-that-jeremy-corbyn-told-andrew-neil/

[TightEnd]

Lord Ashcroft's model for Sheffield Hallam under three turnout scenario's are interesting. All three have Clegg losing:

Click to see full-size image.

labour 7/2 2nd favourites in current betting....