The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

a good read

Corbyn's speech on terrorism will do him more good than harm with voters.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/jeremy-corbyns-speech-terrorism-will-do-him-more-good-harm

[TightEnd]

this is a point i have been making a lot

no good piling up votes in safe seats and gettign 38% voteshare in the wrong places, got to win those marginals....

"Labour must be wary of focusing on vote share – it’s seats that matter"

http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/labour-must-be-wary-of-focusing-on-vote-share-its-seats-that-matter/

same point again made another way

" he polls could be right about Labour's gains - but also misleading

Don’t be fooled by apparently good numbers. Despite Labour’s recent gains, regional trends in polling suggest big names like Tom Watson and Clive Lewis, along with Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, could be under threat"

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/may/26/the-polls-could-be-right-about-labours-gains-but-also-misleading

[TightEnd]

Taxi for Theresa May? stephen bush explains why the Tories' falling poll lead isn't a surprise

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/why-tories-falling-poll-lead-isnt-surprise

[JohnCharver]

Its amazing that both sides have managed to go a route which has totally alienated and removed their big hitters. Its like man city have got pardew and chelsea big sam, and stifled their talents ability to take the middle ground for them.

[DaveShoelace]

IRA, meh. Hamas, whatever. Hezbollah, who cares?

This will probably sink him

Click to see full-size image.

[Woodsey]

Not in the last day or two surely? 

[DaveShoelace]

Not in the last day or two surely? 

That was after the Andrew Neil interview according to her.

I'm guessing Jezza has 0 idea who she is.

[Woodsey]

Not in the last day or two surely? 

That was after the Andrew Neil interview according to her.

I'm guessing Jezza has 0 idea who she is.

 

[ripple11]

Can quibble on point estimates, but trends of the polls in the campaign fairly clear: Lab up, Con up then down, UKIP down, Lib Dems down.

Click to see full-size image.

tomorrow is a big ay,a raft of sunday polls expected. tighter than +/-5 expected

May gets in on a small majority....so Corbyn stays on, Farron goes, and UKIP virtually disappear.


Cancel all post election celebrations.

[TightEnd]

The size of any CON Majority will depend on these tight 50 marginals.

Predictions & analysis http://btfr.co/Constituency

[TightEnd]

If any further proof were needed of the damage done by the social care fiasco, here's last night's Gogglebox

[TightEnd]

a pollster at Gfk says

"I have to say of all the campaigns of the past few years GE2017 is the most remarkable. The shift in opinion is amazing really.

I still expect comfortable Con win with increased majority but Tories have run such a bad campaign they don't deserve it.

Yet the most bizarre thing of all? Very little Brexit talk when that is THE story of the next 2 years and beyond "

[The Camel]

I just heard a debate on the radio about the various parties preparations for Brexit negotiations.

And it struck me how little has been spoken about Brexit this whole campaign.

I'm sure the Tories would like it to be the subject which was most important in the electorate's mind when they vote, but it's credit to the Labour strategists that they've managed to make education, social care and the NHS the main focus of the campaign so far.

[The Camel]

a pollster at Gfk says

"I have to say of all the campaigns of the past few years GE2017 is the most remarkable. The shift in opinion is amazing really.

I still expect comfortable Con win with increased majority but Tories have run such a bad campaign they don't deserve it.

Yet the most bizarre thing of all? Very little Brexit talk when that is THE story of the next 2 years and beyond "

Ha, didn't read your post before I made mine!

[The Camel]

Sunday polls give the Tories a lead of 8 and 10% respectively.

Thought this was interesting though:

On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

May and the Tories: 37% Corbyn and Labour: 42% (via @ComRes)