The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[rfgqqabc]

so during the programme last night at times May was heckled, at times the audience laughed at her and at times they disagreed with her. she's not a natural at it and it showed

but her strongest moment was right at the end

"no deal is better than a bad deal"

big applause

(which makes you wonder why they just haven't rammed home Brexit for three weeks of the campaign)

----

anyway, this troubled me. of course,i voted remain

In her Article 50 letter, Mrs May said that if there is no deal then Britain will be forced to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

no deal at all is a big risk

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said

“Leaving the EU with no deal would mean tariffs on trade; legal chaos, with every British company selling to the EU unsure if they are doing so legally; and Britain’s alliances with other European countries in ruins,”  

a leaked treasury report said plans to rely on World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit will cause a “major economic shock”



so, why does she get thunderous applause on this? a major economic shock would affect many of the people clapping thunderously!

Absolutely agree with all of this.

No deal is better than a bad deal is utter nonsense. Maybe the applause comes from the idea that we are in a stronger position to negotiate, which is laughable isn't it?

Basically we are removing ourselves from a huge trade deal and then saying we want a huge trade deal with the same people. How are we ever going to get good terms in that deal when we have nothing to negotiate with?

All this tub thumping about going to the EU to fight our case feels like posturing to me. I dont see how we can come out if the deal with a good deal. I half fancy the PM knows that too. It's going to take 2 years to sort out, there would have been a GE due shortly after that, she would have got a far worse deal than the rhetoric going around now and facing a much tougher fight to win an election.

By calling one now she can change the Brexit expectancy levels going forward and then have another 3 years left to repair the damage. If she survives.

How can we possibly withdraw from the EU, then go back to them and say we want to cherry pick all the good bits and if you don't accept then we will have no deal?

Good to read some common sense articles this week about how reducing immigration will adversely affect the UK economy too. So if losing our place in a huge trading community, alienating allies and expecting to just go in and demand what we want are bad enough the realisation that immigration helps stimulate the economy is finally getting thru.

So what exactly are the plus points of Brexit now?

We get a good deal by being bloody difficult™ people my old chap. We knuckle down with a bit of blitz spirit and send those euros packing.

People expect at least a fair deal, completely forgetting we are walking out on obligations, and missing out that a good deal for the UK puts the Eu itself at risk. People don't understand, and really who does understand this mess. how else can you explain the biggest benefactors voting for leave. (Cornwall)

It's easy to accept a lie on a bus when it supports your side. My leave friends didn't really understand my anger about this despite knowing the 350m claim was falsehood but it's a travesty when people believe it. And it's easy to believe anything that supports your argument, we are only human after all.

Why didnt TM exclude students from the 100k immigrant cap?

[bobby1]

That seems to be the mentality, we will probably go in there singing 2 World wars and one World cup too. This is from a piece regarding the chances of Expats being sent back home post Brexit but read it as if we were talking about non British people in a cut down of immigration numbers in the UK.

Could expats be deported by EU members?

Almost certainly not. First, there are numerous political reasons for EU states not to do such a thing, including the treatment of their own, numerous, nationals living in the UK.

Mass expulsions of citizens from another developed economy would also startle foreign investors and potentially cause economic turmoil in the expelling country.

Expats would also enjoy significant legal protections that would apply after Brexit.


As you mentioned the immigration policy doesn't account for or is even possible when you include over seas students. Its just another pledge cobbled together with no costings, no highlighting the huge loss in income and to have any chance of reaching the under 100k number you would have to start by heavily reducing the students. Many of those students end up providing a life time of income to this country.

So at the moment the Tories plan is to accept no deal if they have to and then refuse entry to a load of people that would boost the economy, enrich the education system and provide a lifetime of income when they begin their careers?

The amazing thing is it takes journo's and sensible political analysts to actually look at the costings and point out where these ideas are failing.

There is no wonder they are talking about Corbyn and not the fag packet manifesto.

[titaniumbean]

It's pretty obvious from the BBC coverage that May is a complete failure. They are not even trying to hide any form of bias, zero content about May that isn't unrelated or bizarrely positive whilst constant Corbyn criticism on every other line. Incredible.

Corbyn is heavily criticised for not reeling off a certain figure, whilst the Tories don't have any figures so this means they are prepared  

labour is vulnerable on tax/spend because of historic record

politicians from all parties make gaffes but it depends what cuts through

for example abbott and police numbers was an all time cut through.every focus group mentioned it

hammond a fortnight ago? not at all

why does something cut through? well a lot of the press leans right so this makes labour very susceptible to gaffes actually mattering,and the conservatives less so

now you and i might know this but if you are a marginal voter in nuneaton who was watching britian's got talent last night (8.5m, may v corbyn 2.9m) and all you hear is a soundbite on the news or a gaffe the front page of the sun then this REALLY matters to some constituencies

Just sickening that the BBC is given reign to be so pathetically biased.



Abs love that underpass thing though, someone has a great sense of humour.

[TightEnd]

It's pretty obvious from the BBC coverage that May is a complete failure. They are not even trying to hide any form of bias, zero content about May that isn't unrelated or bizarrely positive whilst constant Corbyn criticism on every other line. Incredible.

Corbyn is heavily criticised for not reeling off a certain figure, whilst the Tories don't have any figures so this means they are prepared 

labour is vulnerable on tax/spend because of historic record

politicians from all parties make gaffes but it depends what cuts through

for example abbott and police numbers was an all time cut through.every focus group mentioned it

hammond a fortnight ago? not at all

why does something cut through? well a lot of the press leans right so this makes labour very susceptible to gaffes actually mattering,and the conservatives less so

now you and i might know this but if you are a marginal voter in nuneaton who was watching britian's got talent last night (8.5m, may v corbyn 2.9m) and all you hear is a soundbite on the news or a gaffe the front page of the sun then this REALLY matters to some constituencies

Just sickening that the BBC is given reign to be so pathetically biased.



Abs love that underpass thing though, someone has a great sense of humour.

i was talking about papers

the BBC i find ok. lefties think its right biased, righties think its too liberal. not too bad on balance when it pisses everyone off

Andrew Neil is brilliant, shows like daily politics/this week etc good

question time has problems with audince selection, some of the john humphrys type interviewing i can do without and nick robinson is a tory but all in all, could be worse

laura K i like. i expect to be met outside my front door by corbynistas holding pitchforks later today!

[titaniumbean]

I mean I cant find a single article on BBC website that even references Mays answers, highlighting they have nothing good to say. Searched the first 2 loading pages of recent updates nothing on what she said just one comment about her having a relaxed and unrelated discussion about her down time. Every few lines is a reference to corbyn being IRA or failing to name the stat from page 37 line 4 of the 1946 almanac of labour promises. They are held to such different standards. At least from a rag like barclays or murdochs you know it will have the bias, with the BBC there is the concept it's national news bias free which makes it worse.

[Woodsey]

It's pretty obvious from the BBC coverage that May is a complete failure. They are not even trying to hide any form of bias, zero content about May that isn't unrelated or bizarrely positive whilst constant Corbyn criticism on every other line. Incredible.

Corbyn is heavily criticised for not reeling off a certain figure, whilst the Tories don't have any figures so this means they are prepared 

labour is vulnerable on tax/spend because of historic record

politicians from all parties make gaffes but it depends what cuts through

for example abbott and police numbers was an all time cut through.every focus group mentioned it

hammond a fortnight ago? not at all

why does something cut through? well a lot of the press leans right so this makes labour very susceptible to gaffes actually mattering,and the conservatives less so

now you and i might know this but if you are a marginal voter in nuneaton who was watching britian's got talent last night (8.5m, may v corbyn 2.9m) and all you hear is a soundbite on the news or a gaffe the front page of the sun then this REALLY matters to some constituencies

Just sickening that the BBC is given reign to be so pathetically biased.



Abs love that underpass thing though, someone has a great sense of humour.

i was talking about papers

the BBC i find ok. lefties think its right biased, righties think its too liberal. not too bad on balance when it pisses everyone off

Andrew Neil is brilliant, shows like daily politics/this week etc good

question time has problems with audince selection, some of the john humphrys type interviewing i can do without and nick robinson is a tory but all in all, could be worse

laura K i like. i expect to be met outside my front door by corbynistas holding pitchforks later today!

BBC is fine, your right it is the papers that are more polarised in their opinions one way or the other...

[Magic817]

so during the programme last night at times May was heckled, at times the audience laughed at her and at times they disagreed with her. she's not a natural at it and it showed

but her strongest moment was right at the end

"no deal is better than a bad deal"

big applause

(which makes you wonder why they just haven't rammed home Brexit for three weeks of the campaign)

----

anyway, this troubled me. of course,i voted remain

In her Article 50 letter, Mrs May said that if there is no deal then Britain will be forced to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

no deal at all is a big risk

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said

“Leaving the EU with no deal would mean tariffs on trade; legal chaos, with every British company selling to the EU unsure if they are doing so legally; and Britain’s alliances with other European countries in ruins,”  

a leaked treasury report said plans to rely on World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit will cause a “major economic shock”



so, why does she get thunderous applause on this? a major economic shock would affect many of the people clapping thunderously!

Absolutely agree with all of this.

No deal is better than a bad deal is utter nonsense. Maybe the applause comes from the idea that we are in a stronger position to negotiate, which is laughable isn't it?

Basically we are removing ourselves from a huge trade deal and then saying we want a huge trade deal with the same people. How are we ever going to get good terms in that deal when we have nothing to negotiate with?

All this tub thumping about going to the EU to fight our case feels like posturing to me. I dont see how we can come out if the deal with a good deal. I half fancy the PM knows that too. It's going to take 2 years to sort out, there would have been a GE due shortly after that, she would have got a far worse deal than the rhetoric going around now and facing a much tougher fight to win an election.

By calling one now she can change the Brexit expectancy levels going forward and then have another 3 years left to repair the damage. If she survives.

How can we possibly withdraw from the EU, then go back to them and say we want to cherry pick all the good bits and if you don't accept then we will have no deal?

Good to read some common sense articles this week about how reducing immigration will adversely affect the UK economy too. So if losing our place in a huge trading community, alienating allies and expecting to just go in and demand what we want are bad enough the realisation that immigration helps stimulate the economy is finally getting thru.

So what exactly are the plus points of Brexit now?

We get a good deal by being bloody difficult™ people my old chap. We knuckle down with a bit of blitz spirit and send those euros packing.

People expect at least a fair deal, completely forgetting we are walking out on obligations, and missing out that a good deal for the UK puts the Eu itself at risk. People don't understand, and really who does understand this mess. how else can you explain the biggest benefactors voting for leave. (Cornwall)

It's easy to accept a lie on a bus when it supports your side. My leave friends didn't really understand my anger about this despite knowing the 350m claim was falsehood but it's a travesty when people believe it. And it's easy to believe anything that supports your argument, we are only human after all.

Why didnt TM exclude students from the 100k immigrant cap?

Just chant brexit means brexit whenever any discussion is had about the complexities of leaving the EU.

[ripple11]

There's a lesson many politicians have had to learn the hard way over the years. Never underestimate Women's Hour.

on a sidenote, for politcians of all parties...know the bloody figures. its not that tough, do the prep and if you are going to talk about it don't be unprepared...

Corbyn just had a meltdown over costing childcare policy on Radio 4. Reminiscent of Diane Abbott on police numbers.

Click to see full-size image.

As you say,they had the warning with Abbott "launch policy....know basic figures" or a least have them written down next to you!

Yes he should have known,but to be fair, what sort of crap team does he have around him, that couldn't organize /support/remind him .

[tikay]

There's a lesson many politicians have had to learn the hard way over the years. Never underestimate Women's Hour.

on a sidenote, for politcians of all parties...know the bloody figures. its not that tough, do the prep and if you are going to talk about it don't be unprepared...

Corbyn just had a meltdown over costing childcare policy on Radio 4. Reminiscent of Diane Abbott on police numbers.

Click to see full-size image.

As you say,they had the warning with Abbott "launch policy....know basic figures" or a least have them written down next to you!

Yes he should have known,but to be fair, what sort of crap team does he have around him, that couldn't organize /support/remind him .

This sort?

[TightEnd]

this is amazing

759!

alternative post title "wow,we might be absolutely f****ed"

" On Brexit day, Britain will immediately be excluded from hundreds of treaties and agreements signed by the EU.

Many of the 759 arrangements listed below — from customs procedures and agricultural quotas, to the landing rights of planes — must be replaced, renegotiated or remade by Brexit Britain.

The negotiation will span 168 countries and is one of the biggest administrative challenges confronting Whitehall as Britain exits the EU. This list covers what Britain needs to stand still as it resets its relations with the world."

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database/

[aaron1867]

Despite how brilliant the Labour campaign has been and how fantastically Corbyn has performed I just don't see how Labour wins this.

10% of Tories are simply not going to vote for him, no matter how bad Theresa May is.

Hope I'm wrong.

I am not sure how you come to a conclusion of Jeremy Corbyn performing "fantastically". I would say it's more of Labour jumping on the social care aspect which has been the party gain a few inroads. He is the only reason I am not voting Labour because all the pledges, his past and weakness are too much for me to not to trust him.

Trident/Security - How can you trust a man, who is a pacifist? You don't get terrorist around a table drinking tea and biscuits, that's not how it works Jeremy.

£10 min wage - Nonsense & absolute disaster for small businesses.

Tuition fees - This is the worst pledge he has made in my eyes. I was previously a student and have racked up debt myself and I am not particulary worried about it really. However in my view, I don't believe it shopuld be free, but instead the cost should go down. £9k too much, £0 too less. Let's find the middle ground.

As for tonight's "debate" or more "Q&A", it was a good night for Corbyn, I thought he was just the winner in it. Just felt as if he was really close to a fantastic night, if he decided that when he jumped in to answer Paxman, that he continued on, and not be interupted again. Paxman a disaster tonight though.

Hurtful for me not voting Labour this time round after 2010 & 2015, but I can't see how I can possibly vote for this man. I'll probably swing from Labour to Lib Dem just as a protest vote and hope Corbyn can't possibly stay on. He isn't what the Labour party is about.

What's wrong with tea and biscuits? Whatever we have been doing isn't working.

£10 min wage? Why is it nonsense? Its going to be £9 anyway so what's the big deal?

What is the labour party about then?

He doesn't represent the typical labour voter. Trident, royal family, security & so on. £9 min wage? Hasn't it just recently gone up to £7.50?

[aaron1867]

This is the first time I've no idea who I'm voting for or if I'm going to vote at all. I had decided that I was likely Lib-Dem as they represent me more, but I'm really a labour boy really, but I can't bring myself to vote for someone who I think is very incompetent.

Then you have Diane Abbott, I mean, she is a total disaster. As May said today just today in Wolverhampton "imagine Diane Abbott as Home Secretary". It got a huge reaction and laughter from the audience, that's what a disaster she has been.

Not that it matters, as my local is a labour stronghold, but how I'm feeling on voting:

60% LD
30% don't vote
10% Labour (only do this if I feel labour can win & keep tories out)

[nirvana]

We get a good deal by being bloody difficult™ people my old chap. We knuckle down with a bit of blitz spirit and send those euros packing.

People expect at least a fair deal, completely forgetting we are walking out on obligations, and missing out that a good deal for the UK puts the Eu itself at risk. People don't understand, and really who does understand this mess. how else can you explain the biggest benefactors voting for leave. (Cornwall)

It's easy to accept a lie on a bus when it supports your side. My leave friends didn't really understand my anger about this despite knowing the 350m claim was falsehood but it's a travesty when people believe it. And it's easy to believe anything that supports your argument, we are only human after all.

Why didnt TM exclude students from the 100k immigrant cap?

Out of interest, what obligations do you feel like we have walked out on or plan on walking out from. It's easy to take the EU ticket on this and describe 'obligations' but I'd like to know the specifics of obligations when the treaty allows countries to leave on 2 years notice.

This is normal in commercial contracting - you draw up a contract, you agree what the parties are responsible for while the contract is in force and you agree notice periods for termination and what any surviving obligations would exist beyond termination. What are the surviving obligations ? Does anyone know, is it written down anywhere ?

[nirvana]

I think dwelling on the deal, no deal thing is kinda pointless. There will be a deal...you heard it here first

It's understandable that May says things like this, just as Eurozone leaders will say silly things as a preamble to negotiations - they are all playing a tune they think sits well with their electorate, and rightly so.

Some things about negotiations are truisms even if some seem to counter one another and some defy common sense.

You have to be prepared to walk away in the face of a bad deal but you have to be prepared to compromise to get any kind of deal.

You have to talk tough and play hard but you have more chance of reaching a good deal if you get on with the counterparties.

If you're giving something away (compromising) you are losing in the negotiation but you need to compromise some things to get an agreement.

The weakest party will compromise the most and the strongest party will say 'win-win' and take advantage of the weaker party.

Whether people prefer to think we are weak Britain or strong Britain probably correlates fairly directly with the way we voted in the referendum as that was the battle line that was drawn. It's no surprise that politicians (all over Europe) continue to posture, and that the way commentators (including all of us) view things - the sky is going to fall in or things will ultimately get resolved fairly well for all - depends on how we voted.

I'm pleased that a majority thought we were strong Britain. In terms of growth, job creation, attractiveness for inward investment etc we are strong compared to most of Europe. The extra wealth here means we are an attractive export market. It just has to be true that the bulk of the Eurozone will be quite determined to ensure ongoing tariff free access to our market whilst understanding their strengths as a market for us and our desire for tariff free access too - certainly business will, and the only way this can go pear shaped is if the French and Germans get a bit childish about it and demand too much for that access. I'll literally eat a hat if there isn't a deal with us making ongoing contributions at some level for a free trade deal.

[bobAlike]

this is amazing

759!

alternative post title "wow,we might be absolutely f****ed"

" On Brexit day, Britain will immediately be excluded from hundreds of treaties and agreements signed by the EU.

Many of the 759 arrangements listed below — from customs procedures and agricultural quotas, to the landing rights of planes — must be replaced, renegotiated or remade by Brexit Britain.

The negotiation will span 168 countries and is one of the biggest administrative challenges confronting Whitehall as Britain exits the EU. This list covers what Britain needs to stand still as it resets its relations with the world."

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database/

This is exactly why we needed to leave the EU. Too much bureaucratic piffle that costs a fortune to maintain and is in place to make it harder to leave.