The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[DaveShoelace]

so during the programme last night at times May was heckled, at times the audience laughed at her and at times they disagreed with her. she's not a natural at it and it showed

but her strongest moment was right at the end

"no deal is better than a bad deal"

big applause

(which makes you wonder why they just haven't rammed home Brexit for three weeks of the campaign)

----

anyway, this troubled me. of course,i voted remain

In her Article 50 letter, Mrs May said that if there is no deal then Britain will be forced to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

no deal at all is a big risk

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said

“Leaving the EU with no deal would mean tariffs on trade; legal chaos, with every British company selling to the EU unsure if they are doing so legally; and Britain’s alliances with other European countries in ruins,” 

a leaked treasury report said plans to rely on World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit will cause a “major economic shock”



so, why does she get thunderous applause on this? a major economic shock would affect many of the people clapping thunderously!

When you asked this question it made me think of this from family guy

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYtbWWmtVYM

I didnt have to click on the link to guess which gag it was (still did obvs)

[TightEnd]

Open Question.

With the Conservatives

+22 ahead on the top issue identified by voters (this time, Brexit),
+18 on economic competence
+17 on leadership,

(all of which have been long held as crucial electoral factors)

how would we explain a Conservative loss?

[Woodsey]

Open Question.

With the Conservatives

+22 ahead on the top issue identified by voters (this time, Brexit),
+18 on economic competence
+17 on leadership,

(all of which have been long held as crucial electoral factors)

how would we explain a Conservative loss?

I'm confident we won't have to 

[DaveShoelace]

Open Question.

With the Conservatives

+22 ahead on the top issue identified by voters (this time, Brexit),
+18 on economic competence
+17 on leadership,

(all of which have been long held as crucial electoral factors)

how would we explain a Conservative loss?

People like free stuff

People like the NHS and I must say Jezza has done a very good job of championing this cause

JC does come across as nice and cuddly for the most part

There is a general awareness of income inequality in the recent zeitgeist

Maybe after Trump and Brexit, younger people might be slightly more mobilised to vote

Beard?

[AndrewT]

At this stage the only thing that could explain a Conservative loss would be another paradigm-shifting polling miss.

The Tories are wise to try and pivot things back towards Brexit because it works for them - those UKIP voters are there for the taking and that's a few million people (skewing towards marginals) who have decided that Brexit is the hill they're going to die on - everything else is a sideshow for them.

[TightEnd]

There's a lesson many politicians have had to learn the hard way over the years. Never underestimate Women's Hour.

on a sidenote, for politcians of all parties...know the bloody figures. its not that tough, do the prep and if you are going to talk about it don't be unprepared...

Corbyn just had a meltdown over costing childcare policy on Radio 4. Reminiscent of Diane Abbott on police numbers.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

lol

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

interesting take

times red box

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Nicola Sturgeon's manifesto speech word mentions:

Tory/Tories - 26
Independent - 1
Independence - 0

Odd from a party for Scots nationalism?

[bobby1]

so during the programme last night at times May was heckled, at times the audience laughed at her and at times they disagreed with her. she's not a natural at it and it showed

but her strongest moment was right at the end

"no deal is better than a bad deal"

big applause

(which makes you wonder why they just haven't rammed home Brexit for three weeks of the campaign)

----

anyway, this troubled me. of course,i voted remain

In her Article 50 letter, Mrs May said that if there is no deal then Britain will be forced to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

no deal at all is a big risk

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said

“Leaving the EU with no deal would mean tariffs on trade; legal chaos, with every British company selling to the EU unsure if they are doing so legally; and Britain’s alliances with other European countries in ruins,”  

a leaked treasury report said plans to rely on World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit will cause a “major economic shock”



so, why does she get thunderous applause on this? a major economic shock would affect many of the people clapping thunderously!

Absolutely agree with all of this.

No deal is better than a bad deal is utter nonsense. Maybe the applause comes from the idea that we are in a stronger position to negotiate, which is laughable isn't it?

Basically we are removing ourselves from a huge trade deal and then saying we want a huge trade deal with the same people. How are we ever going to get good terms in that deal when we have nothing to negotiate with?

All this tub thumping about going to the EU to fight our case feels like posturing to me. I dont see how we can come out if the deal with a good deal. I half fancy the PM knows that too. It's going to take 2 years to sort out, there would have been a GE due shortly after that, she would have got a far worse deal than the rhetoric going around now and facing a much tougher fight to win an election.

By calling one now she can change the Brexit expectancy levels going forward and then have another 3 years left to repair the damage. If she survives.

How can we possibly withdraw from the EU, then go back to them and say we want to cherry pick all the good bits and if you don't accept then we will have no deal?

Good to read some common sense articles this week about how reducing immigration will adversely affect the UK economy too. So if losing our place in a huge trading community, alienating allies and expecting to just go in and demand what we want are bad enough the realisation that immigration helps stimulate the economy is finally getting thru.

So what exactly are the plus points of Brexit now?

[TightEnd]

Today's goodie from E Standard editor George Osborne who is being less than helpful to the woman who sacked him

[titaniumbean]

It's pretty obvious from the BBC coverage that May is a complete failure. They are not even trying to hide any form of bias, zero content about May that isn't unrelated or bizarrely positive whilst constant Corbyn criticism on every other line. Incredible.

Corbyn is heavily criticised for not reeling off a certain figure, whilst the Tories don't have any figures so this means they are prepared 

[TightEnd]

It's pretty obvious from the BBC coverage that May is a complete failure. They are not even trying to hide any form of bias, zero content about May that isn't unrelated or bizarrely positive whilst constant Corbyn criticism on every other line. Incredible.

Corbyn is heavily criticised for not reeling off a certain figure, whilst the Tories don't have any figures so this means they are prepared  

labour is vulnerable on tax/spend because of historic record

politicians from all parties make gaffes but it depends what cuts through

for example abbott and police numbers was an all time cut through.every focus group mentioned it

hammond a fortnight ago? not at all

why does something cut through? well a lot of the press leans right so this makes labour very susceptible to gaffes actually mattering,and the conservatives less so

now you and i might know this but if you are a marginal voter in nuneaton who was watching britian's got talent last night (8.5m, may v corbyn 2.9m) and all you hear is a soundbite on the news or a gaffe the front page of the sun then this REALLY matters to some constituencies

[TightEnd]

meanwhile

The PM's Brexit Speech today is only accessible via Wolverhampton's Brexit Underpass. not at all ironic

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

here we go

helen Lewis‏ (spectator)

"It definitely privileges the right, because both sides make gaffes, but their cut-through depend on which ones get repeated & amplified."

and

"the GE shouldn't be a memory test - but given public distrust of Labour with tax/spending they should be on top of this sort of thing."

"Should absolutely have a briefing to hand, particularly given many on high alert to see if Women's Hour is treated as a "soft" outing."

a conservative might get away with it,but a labour politician never will. the way of UK politics with this press.