The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

the election is over

time for a new thread

to start

Brexit – what would happen if Britain left the EU?

Growth, trade, immigration, jobs, diplomacy: what would the impact be if a 2017 referendum pushed UK towards the exit?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/14/brexit-what-would-happen-if-britain-left-eu-european-union-referendum-uk

[mulhuzz]

one of the first things that will happen is I'll apply for Irish (birth) or Czech (residence) citizenship to remain in the EU.

I think the Brexit debate will focus (on the No side) almost entirely on immigration. The UKIP 4m vote will grow now that there's no danger/thought of tactical voting based solely on immigration.

a lot of morons will vote OUT on the basis of ignorance and prejudice, a few smart people will vote OUT on the hope (rather than expectation) that e.g. the economy could be better off under some seemingly unlikely services post brexit when most models would have a permanent hit to GDP of varying degrees.

i'm pro-european but also pro-eu reform. I think there's work to be done there. I don't see how anyone can think we can leave and expect to reneg trade agreements which don't bind us to EU rules anyway without having a voice to draft.

we already have a tonne of opt-ins, btw, and europe in general is way more felxible with us tahan they are with others.

let's face it, we've too much skin in the game to brexit. Doing so would crucify our futures.

[Woodsey]

I'll wait and see whet the negotiations offer before making a decision...

[DungBeetle]

one of the first things that will happen is I'll apply for Irish (birth) or Czech (residence) citizenship to remain in the EU.

I think the Brexit debate will focus (on the No side) almost entirely on immigration. The UKIP 4m vote will grow now that there's no danger/thought of tactical voting based solely on immigration.

a lot of morons will vote OUT on the basis of ignorance and prejudice, a few smart people will vote OUT on the hope (rather than expectation) that e.g. the economy could be better off under some seemingly unlikely services post brexit when most models would have a permanent hit to GDP of varying degrees.

i'm pro-european but also pro-eu reform. I think there's work to be done there. I don't see how anyone can think we can leave and expect to reneg trade agreements which don't bind us to EU rules anyway without having a voice to draft.

we already have a tonne of opt-ins, btw, and europe in general is way more felxible with us tahan they are with others.

let's face it, we've too much skin in the game to brexit. Doing so would crucify our futures.

I think I am pretty much of the same mind.  Pro Eu.  Pro Reform.

I think we can be almost certain that the level of debate in the public domain about the pros and cons of EU will be woeful and my worry is that we will end up with an out vote.  I don't want to sound like one of those bell*nds who doesn't trust the electorate but I'm pretty worried about it being focused purely on immigration as Mulhuzz says.

A fully informed debate on the EU with all the facts, figures and projections would be extremely interesting.  Don't think it will happen though.  Maybe we can have that debate on here

[RED-DOG]

In. I like being a European citizen.

[scotty77]

one of the first things that will happen is I'll apply for Irish (birth) or Czech (residence) citizenship to remain in the EU.

I think the Brexit debate will focus (on the No side) almost entirely on immigration. The UKIP 4m vote will grow now that there's no danger/thought of tactical voting based solely on immigration.

a lot of morons will vote OUT on the basis of ignorance and prejudice, a few smart people will vote OUT on the hope (rather than expectation) that e.g. the economy could be better off under some seemingly unlikely services post brexit when most models would have a permanent hit to GDP of varying degrees.

i'm pro-european but also pro-eu reform. I think there's work to be done there. I don't see how anyone can think we can leave and expect to reneg trade agreements which don't bind us to EU rules anyway without having a voice to draft.

we already have a tonne of opt-ins, btw, and europe in general is way more felxible with us tahan they are with others.

let's face it, we've too much skin in the game to brexit. Doing so would crucify our futures.

This.  I don't think the 4m UKIP voters want to be out of the EU tho; I think a lot of them see it as a way of forcing the issue to reform.

Changes to the EU will undoubtably happen.  UKIP aren't unique in Europe, there are people and parties in every nation pushing for the same.

But I think that the UK will force the issue being the first major one.

Very pro EU here and think that this will lead to good things for the future of the whole of Europe.

[doubleup]

As the government is proposing the potential exit, they should also be forced to produce a precise timetable to negotiate a trade treaty with every country in the world, as we will be exporting f*ck all without them.

[david3103]

As the government is proposing the potential exit, they should also be forced to produce a precise timetable to negotiate a trade treaty with every country in the world, as we will be exporting f*ck all without them.

Is that what the government is proposing? I thought they were proposing a substantial renegotiation of our terms of membership to be followed by a referendum on the question.

[mulhuzz]

As the government is proposing the potential exit, they should also be forced to produce a precise timetable to negotiate a trade treaty with every country in the world, as we will be exporting f*ck all without them.

Is that what the government is proposing? I thought they were proposing a substantial renegotiation of our terms of membership to be followed by a referendum on the question.

kinda, but doubleup is insisting on having free trade agreements with every single country in the world as plan b.

[Longy]

Got to admit as someone who is pro European this referendum turning into a flag waving nationalist stance for those who want out worries me.

Also the aftermath is unpredictable, are ukip as the only party with significant support who will back being out going to get a boost like what happened in Scotland.

[doubleup]

As the government is proposing the potential exit, they should also be forced to produce a precise timetable to negotiate a trade treaty with every country in the world, as we will be exporting f*ck all without them.

Is that what the government is proposing? I thought they were proposing a substantial renegotiation of our terms of membership to be followed by a referendum on the question.

I'd be surprised if the Tory anti-EU backbench rump agreed to a referendum question of "EU or tweaked EU?"  Surely its going to be "tweaked EU or out?"  Anyway its clear that a huge amount of work on trade agreements would be required and not to fully prepare in this area would be extremely negligent.

[david3103]

As the government is proposing the potential exit, they should also be forced to produce a precise timetable to negotiate a trade treaty with every country in the world, as we will be exporting f*ck all without them.

Is that what the government is proposing? I thought they were proposing a substantial renegotiation of our terms of membership to be followed by a referendum on the question.

I'd be surprised if the Tory anti-EU backbench rump agreed to a referendum question of "EU or tweaked EU?"  Surely its going to be "tweaked EU or out?"  Anyway its clear that a huge amount of work on trade agreements would be required and not to fully prepare in this area would be extremely negligent.

The question is going to be In, or Out. But the commitment to tweak first has always been there.

Seems plausible that Cameron will strengthen his negotiating position if there is a real chance of Out winning.

[DungBeetle]

As the government is proposing the potential exit, they should also be forced to produce a precise timetable to negotiate a trade treaty with every country in the world, as we will be exporting f*ck all without them.

Is that what the government is proposing? I thought they were proposing a substantial renegotiation of our terms of membership to be followed by a referendum on the question.

Unfortunately I'm not sure this will even be mentioned in the low level debates we will have on the subject!

I'd be surprised if the Tory anti-EU backbench rump agreed to a referendum question of "EU or tweaked EU?"  Surely its going to be "tweaked EU or out?"  Anyway its clear that a huge amount of work on trade agreements would be required and not to fully prepare in this area would be extremely negligent.

[nirvana]

Without being pedantic, I'm not sure what being pro-European even means

Are Norway and Swtizerland anti European, would we necessarily be anti European by not being a member of the EU ?

It's this kind of nonsense as well as daft statements about free trade renegotiations (just scare mongering nonsense - every country wants to trade with the UK, ldo) that will turn a lot of people pro the out campaign.

I'm not pro leaving the EU (I just don't care either way really) but as soon as I hear a ridic doomsday scenario about what will happen if we want to leave my blood literally boils and I want to leave immeds

Dear Red Dog, good news, whatever happens you'll still be a citizen of Europe, even better, you'll still be a citizen of the world

[AndrewT]

Without being pedantic, I'm not sure what being pro-European even means

Ever since Azerbaijan won Eurovision the whole notion of Europe has just lost any real meaning.