The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

on the other hand

"The Tories have finally become Ukip "

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/10/05/the-tories-have-finally-become-ukip

Quite a good piece that, incred how the Tories are positioning themselves - just your every day working class national socialists.

Hope Farron and Corbyn can step up to rid us of this scourge....wahahaha

I think a lot of people are bit simplistic in their thinking, they largely see a party as just left or right when in reality they can be left on some stuff and right on other stuff so in reality quite broad thinking across the range of issues.That's how I've always thought about stuff myself anyway.

I don't think the left/right axis is very helpful in categorising things these days. We've heard about lots of people considering voting for either Labour or UKIP- on the left/right axis, that's quite a long way, but in their minds, it's quite a short trip. I think a new axis might be nationalist/globalist- so on this axis you've got free trade and internationalists on the globalist end, and protectionists and isolationists on the nationalist end. On this axis I'd say Bernie Sanders and Trump might be quite close together, where as on a left right axis they are miles apart.

I don't even see the need for an axis, you just vote for the party that fits best with how you would like to see the country run.

[DaveShoelace]

Horseshoe theory of politics yo, the far left and far right have more in common with each other than they do with the centre.



I must say, as different as they seem on the surface, I have seen a lot of similarities between Trump diehards and Corbynistas, most notably how they cry media bias and conspiracy whenever anyone disagrees with them. Plus Trump appeared to inherit a reasonable chunk of Bernie supporters who shared the same anti establishment/anti media sentiment.

[TightEnd]

Because (they think) Corbyn is a dud and because (they think) UKIP votes are soft too the Conservatives can attempt a massive land grab with the boundary changes the cherry on top

on the one hand an interventionist economic policy to appeal to a centre-left and on the other the daily mail type social/immigration policy to appeal to the older/right wing voter.

the rhetoric/policy is going further than they've tried before, this is what happens when you don't have (much) effective opposition

the fly in the ointment is that the Brexit negotiation looks so tough and so difficult to reconcile economics (have to have access to single market, isolationism risks recession) and immigration (freedom of movement is a red line for the EU27) that it could make everything else moot.

[TightEnd]

Hard Brexit could cost Scotland £2,000 a head and 80,000 jobs

Allander Institute’s report says leaving would shrink Scottish economy by £8bn in a decade

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/06/hard-brexit-could-see-scotland-lose-80000-jobs-and-cost-2000-a-head?CMP=twt_gu

[nirvana]

Because (they think) Corbyn is a dud and because (they think) UKIP votes are soft too the Conservatives can attempt a massive land grab with the boundary changes the cherry on top

on the one hand an interventionist economic policy to appeal to a centre-left and on the other the daily mail type social/immigration policy to appeal to the older/right wing voter.

the rhetoric/policy is going further than they've tried before, this is what happens when you don't have (much) effective opposition

the fly in the ointment is that the Brexit negotiation looks so tough and so difficult to reconcile economics (have to have access to single market, isolationism risks recession) and immigration (freedom of movement is a red line for the EU27) that it could make everything else moot.

I think this sums it up - the land grab to the UKIP element seems pretty unedifying but from a political perspective May seems to be on point, regardless of how unpleasant it is.

On your last point on Brexit - I guess it can be complicated but I'm really feeling that they (necessarily I think) will simplify things and go with Brexit means Brexit. ie, we're going to leave, there won't be freedom of movement and of course we will have continued access to markets (albeit likely that the terms of that access might include tariffs) providing we comply with their regulations.

It needn't necessarily be complicated is the point really, and I think they are in such a strong position they can go for it and see what transpires. In the worse case they can't get necessary acts through parliament and so they call an election and then get them through. Do you get the sense they are heading this way ?

[nirvana]

Also, I know it's part of the job and all but appreciate the time taken with the links

[TightEnd]

Because (they think) Corbyn is a dud and because (they think) UKIP votes are soft too the Conservatives can attempt a massive land grab with the boundary changes the cherry on top

on the one hand an interventionist economic policy to appeal to a centre-left and on the other the daily mail type social/immigration policy to appeal to the older/right wing voter.

the rhetoric/policy is going further than they've tried before, this is what happens when you don't have (much) effective opposition

the fly in the ointment is that the Brexit negotiation looks so tough and so difficult to reconcile economics (have to have access to single market, isolationism risks recession) and immigration (freedom of movement is a red line for the EU27) that it could make everything else moot.

I think this sums it up - the land grab to the UKIP element seems pretty unedifying but from a political perspective May seems to be on point, regardless of how unpleasant it is.

On your last point on Brexit - I guess it can be complicated but I'm really feeling that they (necessarily I think) will simplify things and go with Brexit means Brexit. ie, we're going to leave, there won't be freedom of movement and of course we will have continued access to markets (albeit likely that the terms of that access might include tariffs) providing we comply with their regulations.

It needn't necessarily be complicated is the point really, and I think they are in such a strong position they can go for it and see what transpires. In the worse case they can't get necessary acts through parliament and so they call an election and then get them through. Do you get the sense they are heading this way ?

one of the articles I put up highlighted the two different strands of thinking in the cabinet

a) single market is key (the view of remainers in the cabinet)
b) no freedom of movement is key (the view of a majority of leave voters? and the leave cabinet members like fox and davis)

you can't seem to have both outside the EU, so bespoke economic deals (trying to limit the impact of tariffs) and hard brexit/no freedom of movement seems to be where it is headed.

i think that scares a lot of "liberals" (in the broad metropolitan sense, as much as how people vote) because it is accompanied by rhetoric that this group finds unappealing and hasn't seen from a mainstream political party since (?) Enoch Powell.

So if you are in that echo chamber you have currently an enormous hand wringing exercise whilst a leave voter in an echo chamber of like minded souls some of whom were primarily motivated by a desire to restrict immigration feels pretty happy with life, and couldn't give a stuff about isolationism fears

i see both groups on social media and its interesting to watch   

i note that steven woolf (he of born in moss side, mixed race, odds on to be next ukip leader and big threat to labour heartland vote shares) spoke yesterday about how post referendum he has strongly contemplated going to join the conservative party

[nirvana]

Because (they think) Corbyn is a dud and because (they think) UKIP votes are soft too the Conservatives can attempt a massive land grab with the boundary changes the cherry on top

on the one hand an interventionist economic policy to appeal to a centre-left and on the other the daily mail type social/immigration policy to appeal to the older/right wing voter.

the rhetoric/policy is going further than they've tried before, this is what happens when you don't have (much) effective opposition

the fly in the ointment is that the Brexit negotiation looks so tough and so difficult to reconcile economics (have to have access to single market, isolationism risks recession) and immigration (freedom of movement is a red line for the EU27) that it could make everything else moot.

I think this sums it up - the land grab to the UKIP element seems pretty unedifying but from a political perspective May seems to be on point, regardless of how unpleasant it is.

On your last point on Brexit - I guess it can be complicated but I'm really feeling that they (necessarily I think) will simplify things and go with Brexit means Brexit. ie, we're going to leave, there won't be freedom of movement and of course we will have continued access to markets (albeit likely that the terms of that access might include tariffs) providing we comply with their regulations.

It needn't necessarily be complicated is the point really, and I think they are in such a strong position they can go for it and see what transpires. In the worse case they can't get necessary acts through parliament and so they call an election and then get them through. Do you get the sense they are heading this way ?

one of the articles I put up highlighted the two different strands of thinking in the cabinet

a) single market is key (the view of remainers in the cabinet)
b) no freedom of movement is key (the view of a majority of leave voters? and the leave cabinet members like fox and davis)

you can't seem to have both outside the EU, so bespoke economic deals (trying to limit the impact of tariffs) and hard brexit/no freedom of movement seems to be where it is headed.

i think that scares a lot of "liberals" (in the broad metropolitan sense, as much as how people vote) because it is accompanied by rhetoric that this group finds unappealing and hasn't seen from a mainstream political party since (?) Enoch Powell.

So if you are in that echo chamber you have currently an enormous hand wringing exercise whilst a leave voter in an echo chamber of like minded souls some of whom were primarily motivated by a desire to restrict immigration feels pretty happy with life, and couldn't give a stuff about isolationism fears

i see both groups on social media and its interesting to watch   

i note that steven woolf (he of born in moss side, mixed race, odds on to be next ukip leader and big threat to labour heartland vote shares) spoke yesterday about how post referendum he has strongly contemplated going to join the conservative party

Interesting times..I think May has legitimised the referendum result with a minimum of effort by, quite weirdly, managing to marginalise a majority (ie all those Tory MPs who voted to remain).

Perhaps she has been able to achieve this because there was little integrity in the position so many Tory MPs took during the campaign (her own position being a good example). Plenty of honourable exceptions of course but think a lot buried their true colours to support Cameron/Osborne based on a future view predicated on remain winning

[Woodsey]

Hard Brexit could cost Scotland £2,000 a head and 80,000 jobs

Allander Institute’s report says leaving would shrink Scottish economy by £8bn in a decade

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/06/hard-brexit-could-see-scotland-lose-80000-jobs-and-cost-2000-a-head?CMP=twt_gu

Could the rest of the uk then have a referendum to vote them out?  

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[DaveShoelace]

Mental year in politics. Hope he is ok.

[TightEnd]

Ukip sources claim a party MEP punched Steven Woolfe several times following a charged meeting, as MEPs angry he was considering defection

he has bleeding on the brain, acording to reports

[DaveShoelace]

Think this could be it for UKIP, the Tories seem to be appealing to a lot of their voter base and any attempts to soften the party will be over now, they already have a thuggish image. Wolfe seemed to be the best shot they had at appealing to a wider base IMO.

More importantly this really shows why you shouldn't ever punch anyone if you can avoid it, just one punch could do something like this. Someone I worked with many years ago died from a single punch in a pub argument, it's just not worth it.

You'd hope after this and Jo Cox everyone might take a step back from all the toxicity of uk politics atm, but I fear it will make things worse.

[TightEnd]

latest

One single punch

he fell back and hit his head on a metal bar in front of a window

collapsed outside 30 minutes later in the parliament square

injuries now said to be life threatening

[TightEnd]

UKIP source tells HuffPost: "I will not deny" that Woolfe was involved in a row with fellow MEP Mike Hookem (ex soldier + defence spksmn)