The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

UKIP is in crisis — and no one’s surprised

http://www.politico.eu/article/ukip-the-party-that-ate-itself-nigel-farage-brexit-diane-james-leadership/?utm_content=buffer697f9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

one psephologist opined last night that If Tories could cut Ukip vote by half, another 40 seats become winnable

[TightEnd]

Not enough for liberals to shake heads at May’s populism. They must grapple with reasons for its appeal.



http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708223-britains-new-prime-minister-signals-new-illiberal-direction-country?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/may_s_revolutionary_conservatism

[Doobs]

remember that amber rudd story a couple of days ago "firms have to list names of foreign workers etc"

this got one of the biggest negative reactions i have ever seen on social media, and i try to follow a wide range of people

anyway, i then saw this yesterday

Twitter is not Britain, exhibit 38:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/

Click to see full-size image.

i found it astonishing!

Pretty shocking, but a big proportion of the country do like to blame others for all their ills, and who better than those who aren't like themselves?  We have spent the last week listening to a party legitimising this fuzzy thinking. 

Should be a golden opportunity for the opposition, who are meanwhile shooting themselves in the face at every opportunity.

Really sad times.  Come back Cameron and Milliband (even Ed would do).

[Woodsey]

remember that amber rudd story a couple of days ago "firms have to list names of foreign workers etc"

this got one of the biggest negative reactions i have ever seen on social media, and i try to follow a wide range of people

anyway, i then saw this yesterday

Twitter is not Britain, exhibit 38:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/

Click to see full-size image.

i found it astonishing!

Pretty shocking, but a big proportion of the country do like to blame others for all their ills, and who better than those who aren't like themselves?  We have spent the last week listening to a party legitimising this fuzzy thinking. 

Should be a golden opportunity for the opposition, who are meanwhile shooting themselves in the face at every opportunity.

Really sad times.  Come back Cameron and Milliband (even Ed would do).

I'm not really sure it's that much of a surprise when you consider the majority of the country support tighter immigration? Maybe only a surprise to people who don't support that view?

[TightEnd]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37582150

The pound has dived on Asian markets with automated trading being blamed for the volatility.

At one stage it fell as much as 6% to $1.1841 - the biggest move since the Brexit vote - before recovering to $1.24, still down 1.5%.

It is not clear what triggered the sudden sell-off. Analysts say it could have been automated trading systems reacting to a news report.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[Longines]

Get the popcorn ready.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/tony-blair-hints-at-return-to-politics-over-fears-britain-is-bec/

New SDP?

[TightEnd]

there is a market as follows

Click to see full-size image.

in 2015 GE vote shares were

Con 36
Lab 30
UKIP 12
Lib 8

current poll of polls in September are

Con 40 (range 38-41)
Lab 30 (range 27-34)
UKIP 12
Lib 8

Leaving your own political views aside and bearing in mind

- Corbynism good or bad
- Brexit to be completed by the 2020 GE

Where would you pitch your labour vote share at the next GE? any of the prices in the image strike you as interesting?

 

[TightEnd]

update

Click to see full-size image.

in some bureau, its now below 1.0

[Doobs]

there is a market as follows

Click to see full-size image.

in 2015 GE vote shares were

Con 36
Lab 30
UKIP 12
Lib 8

current poll of polls in September are

Con 40 (range 38-41)
Lab 30 (range 27-34)
UKIP 12
Lib 8

Leaving your own political views aside and bearing in mind

- Corbynism good or bad
- Brexit to be completed by the 2020 GE

Where would you pitch your labour vote share at the next GE? any of the prices in the image strike you as interesting?

 

I think they have the favoruite about right.  Labour's share should be higher mid term than at the election, so it should fall naturally from here.  The problem is that UKIP are clearly in disarray too, and that in amongst the populist stuff that May says are some things that are utterly repellant.  And a fair few of her ministers seem to be going straight to repellant.

Having said all that, if labour splits that 12/1 is going to be a very good price.  I'd say that is less likely than I thought it would be 3 months ago.  I'd say if you could produce a good guess on the split liklihood, you are more than half way to cracking this market.

[The Camel]

Get the popcorn ready.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/tony-blair-hints-at-return-to-politics-over-fears-britain-is-bec/

New SDP?

I know Blair is utterly despised by many in the current Labour Party, but what is the view of the majority of the population about him?

I have no idea how he is perceived nationally.

[DaveShoelace]

Get the popcorn ready.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/tony-blair-hints-at-return-to-politics-over-fears-britain-is-bec/

New SDP?

I know Blair is utterly despised by many in the current Labour Party, but what is the view of the majority of the population about him?

I have no idea how he is perceived nationally.

Kinda think now he is tarred with the Iraq brush with everyone tbh

[DMorgan]

Not everyone believes that Iraq was a mistake

There's certainly a market for his politics. Pro-europe Labour voters that now see the party as just lol, were learning towards the tories during the first few months of May's reign until we had the Mein Kampf inspired foreigner lists and that find UKIP abhorrent.

How big that market is I have no idea, probably not very?

At 64 and an absolute lock to get buried in the press from day one I'm not sure he's the guy to be starting a new party, but he probably has just about enough narcissism in him to give it a try!

[RickBFA]

Not everyone believes that Iraq was a mistake

There's certainly a market for his politics. Pro-europe Labour voters that now see the party as just lol, were learning towards the tories during the first few months of May's reign until we had the Mein Kampf inspired foreigner lists and that find UKIP abhorrent.

How big that market is I have no idea, probably not very?

At 64 and an absolute lock to get buried in the press from day one I'm not sure he's the guy to be starting a new party, but he probably has just about enough narcissism in him to give it a try!

"Mein Kampf inspired foreigner lists" - that's a rather emotive description, you really comparing our Government to the Nazi's?

[DMorgan]

'For the state must draw a sharp line of distinction between those who, as members of the nation, are the foundation and support of its existence and greatness, and those who are domiciled in the state, simply as earners of their livelihood there.' - Mein Kampf

I didn't call the government nazis

The separation of people into a two tier system of those that can apply for a job and those who cannot based solely on ethnicity is a related theme, no?

[RickBFA]

'For the state must draw a sharp line of distinction between those who, as members of the nation, are the foundation and support of its existence and greatness, and those who are domiciled in the state, simply as earners of their livelihood there.' - Mein Kampf

I didn't call the government nazis

The separation of people into a two tier system of those that can apply for a job and those who cannot based solely on ethnicity is a related theme, no?

To call the plan "Mein Kampf inspired" is of course a ridiculous statement.

Perhaps it is inspired by the will of the vast majority of the public?

Tighty's post of the UKGOV poll seems to back that up. Even half of Lib Dems and SNP supporters agree with the proposal.

Perhaps its the liberal elite that are out of touch?