The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Doobs]

Very interesting report by the Fabian society

" Labour could slump to below 150 MPs, Fabian Society warns

Thinktank recommends Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour should prepare for an era of ‘quasi-federal, multi-party politics’

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/02/labour-election-jeremy-corbyn-fabian-society?CMP=share_btn_tw

there is a killer chart in the report

Current polling of 28% means 20% on Election Day given usual +8 bias.

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Why would it be a flat percentage?  A lot of these are going to be based on labour getting 40% or so in the mid terms and collapsing to 30 odd percent.  Starting from 28 is going to be different.  It feels a bit contived when they ignore the labour win years too.  I'd be surprised if the "collapse" was less than 8 in those years.

Of course this is all a bit irrelevant as in most of these years, Labour had a competent leader and shadow cabinet.

[TightEnd]

you pays your money, you takes your choice

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[TightEnd]

good grief. you gov out today

May's ratings are vulnerable I am sure/ too high..could fall a long way over the article 50 process

but the other side. jeez....

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[TightEnd]

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[TightEnd]

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[TightEnd]

In a Sir humphrey kind of "read between the lines" way the resignation email is quite hard-hitting

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38503020

[TightEnd]

Why Labour needs a 12.5 pt lead to return to power - by John Curtice http://bit.ly/2iZyy3u

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[doubleup]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/crispin-odey-s-hedge-fund-suffers-worst-ever-annual-loss-in-2016

"He was one of the market’s most prominent backers of Brexit"

[Woodsey]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/crispin-odey-s-hedge-fund-suffers-worst-ever-annual-loss-in-2016

"He was one of the market’s most prominent backers of Brexit"

'The billionaire Crispin Odey', I'm sure he'll be just fine.....

[TightEnd]

lots of great detail in this times piece

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fox-and-davis-drove-our-man-in-europe-to-despair-s5k7rwsj9

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[TightEnd]

The Norwegian prime minister, Erna Solberg, says the UK’s lack of negotiating experience may result in a painful exit from the European Union. Speaking after a meeting of Bavaria’s centre-right CSU party in Germany on Wednesday, she says that because the UK has been an EU member for so long, it lacks the diplomatic skills needed to forge a successful trade deal

video on https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/jan/05/uk-faces-very-hard-brexit-warns-norwegian-pm-video?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

The Brexit ministers who just realised reducing immigration is a problem for them

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/brexit-ministers-who-just-realised-reducing-immigration-problem-them

--

Theresa May to prioritise immigration controls over single market membership - report: http://bit.ly/2iGxzq0

[TightEnd]

the economist's first cameron and May covers



interesting article

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21713837-after-six-months-what-new-prime-minister-stands-still-unclearperhaps-even?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/rfd/pe

[TightEnd]

Latest Westminster voting intention (3-4 Jan)

CON 39% (-)
LAB 26% (+2)
LD 10% (-2)
UKIP 14% (-)
OTH 10% (-1)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-26/

Challenge facing Labour: Under half of their current supporters and under third of their 2015 voters think Jeremy Corbyn would make best PM.

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[AndrewT]

Compare that to the ICM/Guardian poll from 20 years ago.