The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Historical pattern is v. clear: however the opposition parties do tonight, they will do much worse on 8 June:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/why-things-will-get-worse-labour-after-local-elections

"These are extremely ominous local election results for Labour. It looks like a trajectory towards worst GE result since 1931"

[TightEnd]

Corbyn was in Oxford east yesterday,a safe labour seat

why is he in safe seats and not marginals? (May is in marginals and labour seats, a lot)

so the theory goes (plausible i thought) that he is visiting seats with lots of labour members. it is the contest after the election that is the focus. likely to be a smaller PLP, and likely that lots of centrist Labour MPs will be gone.

so lower number of MPs needed to nominate someone to get on a leadership ballot, and he wants to do the yards with the members now  

thr aim is to shore up vote share...keep labour at 30% ish by piling up votes in friendly seats too

[DaveShoelace]

Corbyn was in Oxford east yesterday,a safe labour seat

why is he in safe seats and not marginals? (May is in marginals and labour seats, a lot)

so the theory goes (plausible i thought) that he is visiting seats with lots of labour members. it is the contest after the election that is the focus. likely to be a smaller PLP, and likely that lots of centrist Labour MPs will be gone.

so lower number of MPs needed to nominate someone to get on a leadership ballot, and he wants to do the yards with the members now  

thr aim is to shore up vote share...keep labour at 30% ish by piling up votes in friendly seats too

Not sure if I admire the pragmatism/forward thinking, or am depressed by how defeated the Labour party are, based on that strategy.

[TightEnd]

Corbyn was in Oxford east yesterday,a safe labour seat

why is he in safe seats and not marginals? (May is in marginals and labour seats, a lot)

so the theory goes (plausible i thought) that he is visiting seats with lots of labour members. it is the contest after the election that is the focus. likely to be a smaller PLP, and likely that lots of centrist Labour MPs will be gone.

so lower number of MPs needed to nominate someone to get on a leadership ballot, and he wants to do the yards with the members now 

thr aim is to shore up vote share...keep labour at 30% ish by piling up votes in friendly seats too

Not sure if I admire the pragmatism/forward thinking, or am depressed by how defeated the Labour party are, based on that strategy.

why else would he be campaigning there

labour has a 15k majority!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

this chart from the other day. look where corbyn is. shouldn't he be right of the central y axis..trying to win blue seats?

Click to see full-size image.

[The Camel]

Random archive spottage, get back in your box son and don't fk with the all time boss of British politics 

You honestly think Thatcher won that exchange 

[Doobs]

Corbyn was in Oxford east yesterday,a safe labour seat

why is he in safe seats and not marginals? (May is in marginals and labour seats, a lot)

so the theory goes (plausible i thought) that he is visiting seats with lots of labour members. it is the contest after the election that is the focus. likely to be a smaller PLP, and likely that lots of centrist Labour MPs will be gone.

so lower number of MPs needed to nominate someone to get on a leadership ballot, and he wants to do the yards with the members now 

thr aim is to shore up vote share...keep labour at 30% ish by piling up votes in friendly seats too

Not sure if I admire the pragmatism/forward thinking, or am depressed by how defeated the Labour party are, based on that strategy.

why else would he be campaigning there

labour has a 15k majority!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

this chart from the other day. look where corbyn is. shouldn't he be right of the central y axis..trying to win blue seats?

Click to see full-size image.

I am confused.  Aren't the red triangles to the right of the y axis?  And surely Corbyn has been in more places than that?  What am I supposed to be looking at?

[TightEnd]

yes he's been to 5 constituencies to the right of the central y axis

5?

shouldn't that be much higher? have to win blue seats to win....

[MANTIS01]

It's like when say Rotherham United draw Man City away in the cup. When they find themselves 5-0 down everyone drops deep to try and prevent total embarrassment.

[Doobs]

yes he's been to 5 constituencies to the right of the central y axis

5?

shouldn't that be much higher? have to win blue seats to win....

But there are none on the left?  Why not show where he has been on the left? By comparison, May has only got 7 on the left, and they don't seem so well targetted (she has gone to 3 with labour majorities over 25% ir so).  

It just seems a stramge graph to me.   At one stage in the election Corbyn had only visited 5 Tory constituencies.  Seems that will be something that is likely to always hold true.

[Woodsey]

Random archive spottage, get back in your box son and don't fk with the all time boss of British politics 

You honestly think Thatcher won that exchange 

The goddess of UK politics owned all the labour numpties 

[TightEnd]

IG Group betting market on seat numbers suggests Conservative majority of 160

Con up about 35 in the last three days

[TightEnd]

 Matt Singh‏ @MattSingh_

This whole "It's not Labour doing badly, it's the Tories gaining seats because of the UKIP collapse" spin is totally missing the point.

UKIP took votes almost equally from Labour and Tories from 2010-15.

so if UKIP implodes, standing still is not neutral. Standing still is a disaster.

Just as importantly, these are the sorts of people whose votes Labour needs if it wants to govern, but has been haemorrhaging since 2005.

Of course, all of this is being viewed through the prism of Brexit. But the roots of it are far deeper.

[TightEnd]

from Prof Matthew Godwin

"This is not just a story of local councils or even Brexit. It's part of wider trend of the centre being pushed right http://bit.ly/2oYxsZz"

Click to see full-size image.

"Britain seeing "realignment of the right", similar to '90s Canada, a contagion from the right. Ukip makes way for new era of right dominance"

[TightEnd]

i thought this was interesting, if a little overwrought

from the author, tv host etc

Caitlin Moran‏ Verified account @caitlinmoran

As Labour collapses across the country, I can't think of anything I regret more than voting Jeremy Corbyn as leader. I'm so sorry, my kids.

[DaveShoelace]

i thought this was interesting, if a little overwrought

from the author, tv host etc

Caitlin Moran‏ Verified account @caitlinmoran

As Labour collapses across the country, I can't think of anything I regret more than voting Jeremy Corbyn as leader. I'm so sorry, my kids.

I presume if I look at her twitter mentions it will be 500 death threats from Corbynistas, kinder gentler and all that