The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[The Camel]

Maybe one aspect of Corbyn and the IRA/Hamas stuff is simply that back then, the left broadly had the opinion that major Western powers = bad, and so didn't put too much thought into it over and above 'the IRA are enemies of British colonialism, so are we, therefore enemy of my enemy is my friend'. Supporting groups fighting imperialism was just something lefties did.

Of course, that is also the thing that has got them into such a mess with radical Islam because a group of people that's both a) right-wing fundamentalist and b) brown-skinned causes a lot of confusion in their minds as they can't both support and oppose it.

The reason it really hasn't come up yet is because the poll lead means it hasn't been needed but also because maybe it was always something to be saved up for the end of the campaign, as once you've made the campaign personal you can't really row back from it if it doesn't play as well as you'd hoped.

I doubt in his wildest fantasies, Corbyn never believed he would one day be leader of the Labour Party.

[Ledders]

An old school friend of mine works for the Tories in the shit-flinging department. It's been stockpiled and ready to go re Corbyn for a long long time.

[PokerBroker]

I repeat as before funny how the terrorist always has the smallest bomb.

Britain initiated the war in Ireland and still stokes sectarian tension.

The tories are trying it in Scotland, shame on those who don't see through it.

[DaveShoelace]

I repeat as before funny how the terrorist always has the smallest bomb.

Britain initiated the war in Ireland and still stokes sectarian tension.

The tories are trying it in Scotland, shame on those who don't see through it.

I'll bite. You think there is a decent chance Scotland will go to war with the rest of the UK if the Tories have their way?

[TightEnd]

Labour manifesto out at 11am

new 45p tax bracket, 50p tax bracket for those over £125k

McDonnell says Labour programme 'is a significant state intervention because that's what's needed'

nationalisation of water

McDonnell says Labour would consult on the "mechanism" for nationalisation - so not costed. Would that "mechanism" involve no compensation?

John McDonnell admits water companies nationalisation plan - which will cost tens of billions - has not costed despite promises

all on R4 today

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Corbyn to bring back 50p top rate of tax at lower £125,000 rate in huge tax grab on a million big earners

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3569030/jeremy-corbyn-unleashes-one-of-the-biggest-tax-grabs-in-history-as-he-publishes-plans-for-his-socialist-blueprint/

[TightEnd]

i don't like the graphs much,but another analysis trying tolook at whois visiting where and what it means

"May seems to be going to seats likely to change hands. Corbyn seems to be avoiding them"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39927866

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

LAB may have <more> support among under-50s than in 2015 but among the over-50s risks being crushed

http://www.fabians.org.uk/the-age-election/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Tom Lubbock is a political scientist

he had this to say yesterday

Growing evidence that this is Labour’s ‘boiled frog’ election (thread). Things have got worse on several fronts with the acclimatisation to each new reality masking the overall situation.

The headline voting intention figures (sometimes matching what EM got in 15) have also masked two core problems for Lab

A.) Their vote/ Conservative gains look like they might be distributed across the country in such a way as to produce a large landslide

B.) It looks like the remaining Labour vote is made up of what you might call a ‘risky’ coalition

the average Labour voter (from the look of recent polls) is now much younger than in 2015

These younger respondents (largely driven by the 18-24s) are telling pollsters that they are much more likely to actually vote than in 2015

So they are getting through likely voter screens at a higher rate than history would suggest they should.

Maybe there’ll be a mobilisation of younger voters (that would be a great thing) but it is a big risk for anyone just looking at Lab figs

And this story about younger voters plays into the story about where the Lab vote actually is. 18-24s are not very evenly distributed

The other thing that has been propping up Lab’s headline voting intention number is a trickle of 2015 Lib Dems

This is good news for Lab, because it might mark some tactical voting and perhaps some evenly distributed gains

But if I were Lab I’d be worried about how solid these 2015 LDs are and how likely to turnout.

Every election coughs up something new, but this coalition of young recruits, 2015 LDs and ~75% of 2015 Lab is a recipe for Lab underperforming its polls which already show a catastrophe coming for the party (See A. above)


cliffs: When pensioners all but abandon your party an influx of younger people saying they will vote for you might end badly

[TightEnd]

on another subject,in the FT

"Emmanuel Macron, a disaster for Britain as he binds France and Germany close"

https://www.ft.com/content/63a8c1cc-3713-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

[TightEnd]

Tom Freeman this time

The Labour vote is holding up much better in the polls than many expected (just a rout, not a wipeout). Why? Some theories:

Maybe the polls are wrong and Labour *is* in worse trouble. In the past, polling error has usually been *over*estimating Labour’s vote.

Maybe Corbyn is actually quite popular? Easy to rule out: the same polls also give him terrible personal ratings, light years behind May’s.

Maybe people want to stop a landslide, confident that Corbyn won’t become PM? A few, sure, but I doubt many are thinking this strategically.

Maybe Labour MPs are doing what they can locally to disown Corbyn? No doubt many are, but “Look, we’re divided!” is also a tough sell.

Maybe the Labour brand is strong enough to withstand the damage of the last 20mths—especially as the party was already at a very low point…

If so, most of the voters repelled by a terrible leader would have already been repelled by his merely very poor predecessor. Could be.

But maybe what counts as a bad vote share has changed. The Ukip slump has been stunning, and the predicted Lib Dem recovery hasn’t appeared.

The Ukip vote is mostly going Tory. But many of those people were voting Labour in 2010 or 2005. To get only a few back is a failure.

The Lib Dems have still lost most of their 2010 voters—mainly left-leaners—and Labour is still hardly winning them over. This is a failure.

So, for a second-term opposition to still be only around 30% after Ukip has followed the Lib Dems in collapsing would be a terrible failure.

The vote shared between the big two parties is now much higher than it has been in ages. So 30% now is much worse than 30% in 2010 or 2015.

If the result is Con 47% Lab 30%, that would be a Lab:Con ratio of 1 to 1.57. That would be the worst ratio since 1931.

Finally, if Labour can offset vote losses in marginals with gains in safe seats, it will still have a much harder path to future victory.

[TightEnd]

'Antiquated' election rules no match for Facebook spending spree

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

A 'fat cat' tax, return of 50p tax rate and renationalising UK water.  Levy On Premier League Clubs. 30 hours free childcare will also be offered to families

Labour's manifesto

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/corbyn-labour-manifesto-launch-tories_uk_591a0c9ae4b0809be1574b66?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004

[TightEnd]

a furious article

Oliver Kamm on the appointment of Murray to run Labour's campaign

https://capx.co/corbyns-campaign-chief-is-an-apologist-for-tyranny/?omhide=true

[Doobs]

I repeat as before funny how the terrorist always has the smallest bomb.

Britain initiated the war in Ireland and still stokes sectarian tension.

The tories are trying it in Scotland, shame on those who don't see through it.

In the Troubles who used the biggest bomb?  Kind of irrelevant that the UK Government had nukes, don't you think?

Going back 200 years and apportioning all the blame on one side is silly, and I fully accept that what the UK Government did at times was appaling.  Even at the height of the troubles, the vast majority wanted peace and to get on with their lives.  You can see that in the popularity of Sinn Fein.  Even Thatcher and Blair, who are often described as war mongers, were trying to get a peace deal.

Of course, the likes of Brexit isn't going to help, but in amongst all the stipid decisions, I dare say nobody ever said lets push this through so we can antagonise the Nationalists in Northern Ireland.