The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Despite Libdem Referendum promise, majority (55%) of "devastated brexit pessimists" intending to vote Lab http://bit.ly/2suUCbK

to answer Maldini who i forgot to answer, i am not devastated, but i am one of the 15% above

i don't agree with some of their views (Farron's views on homosexuality, wouldn't hold a second referendum, wish it was still Clegg etc) but can't vote Lab (even if i accepted the economics, i don't accept the security, defence, terror positioning of Corbyn or think its changed that much from his bad old days) or Tory (can't support hard brexit) this time

[TightEnd]

and it keeps coming

YouGov 2017 election model estimates (5 June)

CON 42%, 268-344 seats
LAB 38%, 234-299 seats

For full results visit: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

remember different turnout model to ICM, higher weighting to young voter/2015 non voter turning out more this time

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

another good read, think stephen Bush is one of the best out there

I visited Britain's most marginal constituency and to be honest I left more confused about the election than I came:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/view-gower-labour-wales-28-votes-could-make-all-difference

[Longy]

and it keeps coming

YouGov 2017 election model estimates (5 June)

CON 42%, 268-344 seats
LAB 38%, 234-299 seats

For full results visit: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

remember different turnout model to ICM, higher weighting to young voter/2015 non voter turning out more this time

Click to see full-size image.

The mid point estimate of this is chaos, don't see how either side can form a government.

[TightEnd]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

[Woodsey]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in a tory marginal, he was in my local pub the other day 200 yards up the road from me. Wish I'd known he was going I could have egged him from the bridge across the train line next to the pub, 95% I would have got away from that vantage point without being snaffled  

[The Camel]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

[DaveShoelace]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

I'll bite.

Respectfully, maybe they are reacting pragmatically to comments like that.

[Woodsey]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

People have been ripping down Tory signs from people's gardens around here and sticking up Labour ones where they aren't allowed. They stuck one in my neighbours garden as it has a for sale sign outside so they chanced their arm nobody was living there, he was furious and the local labour MP was compelled to come round and apologise to him.

That's the Corbo chav crew for ya.....

[Longy]

This is the case in London, labour posters out number every other party by about 10 to 1 and I would say lib dems would be 2nd. Mainly posters in windows, so it will be the homeowner who put them there. I don't think there is anything to be drawn from this, labour supporters have always been forthcoming with their support and I think Corbyn has only increased this. Those who support him are very vocal about it.

[arbboy]

This is the case in London, labour posters out number every other party by about 10 to 1 and I would say lib dems would be 2nd. Mainly posters in windows, so it will be the homeowner who put them there. I don't think there is anything to be drawn from this, labour supporters have always been forthcoming with their support and I think Corbyn has only increased this. Those who support him are very vocal about it.

Haven't seen a single Labour poster or sign in my town.  Hardly any Tory ones either tbh (less than five) apart from the usual ones on the roads in the farmers fields.

[The Camel]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

I'll bite.

Respectfully, maybe they are reacting pragmatically to comments like that.

I don't understand.

If you are proud of the potical party you support and are committed to winning the general election, wouldn't you be trying to persuade others to support the same party?

[BigAdz]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

I'll bite.

Respectfully, maybe they are reacting pragmatically to comments like that.

I don't understand.

If you are proud of the potical party you support and are committed to winning the general election, wouldn't you be trying to persuade others to support the same party?

Like wot Woodsey said. No point putting a target on your back for idiots to aim at.

[Woodsey]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

I'll bite.

Respectfully, maybe they are reacting pragmatically to comments like that.

I don't understand.

If you are proud of the potical party you support and are committed to winning the general election, wouldn't you be trying to persuade others to support the same party?

Like wot Woodsey said. No point putting a target on your back for idiots to aim at.

Not about that for me, I just don't really feel a need to declare my allegiance to my neighbours, also I don't really think many apart from the dimwits make their choice based on the number posters around......ahhh that might explain the abundance of about Labour posters around 

[RickBFA]

Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East.

The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%.  3 of the 4 are rock solid labour, Blyth etc

If it is close and lab are -3 or better in % age, which they could be depending on turnout of the young and the previously non voters...

why is Labour so defensive?

shouldn't they be in tight tory marginals?

May is in Edinburgh in marginals.

I live in one the safest Tory seats in the country (Richmond) but actually live closer to Darlington than to Richmond.

Darlo is a Labour marginal with a majority of about 1000.

There are "Vote Labour" signs everywhere. The presence on the high street canvassing and campaigning is huge compared to non existent for the Tories.

Literally have only seen one Tory sign in the last 3 weeks. And that is outside the house of a local Tory councillor.

Either Labour are going to increase their majority massively, or there are a lot of ashamed Tory voters round here.

I'll bite.

Respectfully, maybe they are reacting pragmatically to comments like that.

I don't understand.

If you are proud of the potical party you support and are committed to winning the general election, wouldn't you be trying to persuade others to support the same party?

Given the Tory vote is generally the older generation, a lot view political views as a private issue.

Younger vote is more towards Labour and the young are generally more vocal and idealistic.

Think it's no more complicated than that.